It’s late in your draft, and you’re scrolling and scrolling. You’re looking for a late-round sleeper to catch your eye. You ask yourself, “Who could have a big season?”. Should you take the handcuff to your early-round RB? Or maybe someone with more upside. You narrow it down to a few players and start to think it through. Do you want the veteran who many are doubting due to his age? Or do you want the young athletic freak that could finally put it all together this year? They could both end up hitting, or they could both end up being nothing. Well if they meet the two criteria I’m about to reveal they could both be great additions to your team. There are two main things I look for in my late-round picks, and that is: OPPORTUNITY and EFFICIENCYOpportunity is often what determines a player’s level of fantasy production. You can’t be an RB1 without plenty of opportunities, in the form of carries and targets. Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in carries last year, so it is no surprise he also led the league in rushing yards. Julio Jones led the NFL in targets last year, and he too led the NFL in receiving yards. As you have heard, many analysts say, “Opportunity is King.”Efficiency is needed when a player doesn’t necessarily get an abundance of opportunity. What a player lacks in opportunity, they must make up for that with efficiency. For example, let’s compare Antonio Brown’s and Michael Thomas’s 2018 seasons. Brown had 168 targets, for 104 catches and 1,297 yards. Thomas had 147 targets, for 125 catches and 1,405 yards. Thomas was able to outproduce Brown in catches and yards even though he had 21 fewer targets. He was able to do this because he had a much higher catch rate, 85% vs. 61.9%. Posting high yards per reception, yards per carry, and performing well in other more advanced efficiency statistics can also allow a player to outperform their perceived opportunity. Below are a few players that meet the above criteria this year.
