After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
Let’s start this series off with @rookiewhisper and I discussing rookie Jalen Reagor.
Rookie Jalen Reagor, overall rank 9, WR4
@RookieWhisper on why Reagor should be higher:
Jalen Reagor is my WR1, so I have to stick up for my guy and tell you why. There are several reasons my model loves Jalen Reagor.
The first being his analytical profile. Compared to the other top prospects and 1st round WRs, he is far superior analytically speaking. He is the only 1st round WR with an 18-year-old breakout. His breakout was18.7, putting him in the 95th percentile. This is much better than the other first-rounders: Ruggs, who didn’t register a breakout; Lamb, with a breakout of 19.4 (81st percentile); Jeudy, with a breakout of 19.4 (81st percentile); Jefferson, with 19.6 (74th percentile); and, lastly, Aiyuk, with 21.5 (26th percentile). When you pair Reagor’s breakout age with his first-round capital, you have a high likelihood of a Top 24 WR finish.
The second reason I am high on Reagor is what he shows on tape. When you turn on the film, the first thing that pops out to me is Reagor’s athleticism. You can see Jalen use his speed as a deep threat, his quickness to create separation on short to intermediate routes, and his strength and balance to break tackles after the catch. The biggest knock on Reagor is his hands. In 2019 he had a less than desirable drop rate of 10%. This is a large difference from his 2018 drop rate of 4%. This could be explained by lackluster QB play. I believe it is safe to assume even his “catchable” targets were not great throws, making his catch attempts difficult.
The last reason I believe Reagor is the WR1 is his opportunity. Jalen Reagor has first-round draft capital, and when a team takes a WR in the first round they are going to make sure that player sees the field and has an opportunity to succeed. On Day 1 assuming a fully healthy WR group in PHI, Reagor should sit in the WR3 chair. This is the role Nelson Agholor played while healthy in 2019. Agholor saw a healthy 91.8% snap share and 70 targets in 11 games, which comes to just over 6 targets a game. If Reagor plays in all 16 games, with Agholor’s same workload, that comes out to around 100 targets. However, there is even more potential for targets in this Eagles offense.
The reason for that increased target potential is DeSean Jackson’s and Alshon Jeffery’s poor track record of health. If one were to go down, Reagor could see an uptick in opportunity and targets. In addition to Jackson’s and Jeffrey’s inability to stay healthy, their contracts also raise issues that could impact Reagor. The Eagles have a potential out in Jackson’s contract after the 2020 season. In my opinion, paying a 34-year-old WR over 8 million dollars a year seems unwise. Although there is not a potential out in Jeffery’s contract following the 2020 season, the Eagles still may decide to part ways and cut him. If the Eagles were to cut Jeffery following the season, they would save close to 8 million by letting the then 31-year-old WR go.
When you combine the very strong analytics with a high potential seen on film and a good opportunity to succeed in PHI, there is a very strong case for Jalen Reagor as the WR1 in this class.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
Let me pose a question here, because I am lower on Reagor than the consensus. While watching his film, did you see the difference in his side-to-side agility in 2018 compared to 2019? In my opinion, Reagor looked less able to utilize the agility he showed in 2018 during 2019. Was this due to a noted injury that he played through? Also, has a reason emerged for why Reagor’s 40-yard dash was so low compared to some of his max game speeds?
Additionally, in light of Alshon Jeffery’s injury and his status being in question, the opportunity to play Week 1 will be considered when examining Reagor vs Jefferson in the next update.
Jalen Reagor is going to be the player who moves up the most during this round table discussion. Along with the factors that @RookieWhisper pointed out about Reagor’s athletic profile and age-adjusted performance, a number of great insights were dug up on my end while further researching. First, let’s address Reagor’s combine testing along with my above concern of injury in the 2019 season. Many analysts who watched Reagor play expected him to challenge Ruggs for the speed title within the class, and potentially break Ross’s record.
Reagor ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, which converts to an above-average 100.7-speed score. However, Reagor was clocked in reaching a max speed of 22.6 MPH. This was the second-fastest wide receiver in the class. (I will get to the fastest later on). While I do not believe it is fair to superimpose a 40-yard dash time in the 4.3’s based on this, let’s just say Reagor will be one of the fastest players on the field at all times.
As I dug further, I came across one of the most surprising stats. As @RookieWhisper mentioned, Reagor saw a rate of only 61% catchable targets. Using this figure with his 93 total targets, Reagor had a true catch rate of 75%. This is definitely a red flag. What quarterback in the NFL had the highest catchable pass rate in 2019? Carson Wentz led the NFL with an 85% catchable pass rate. This was while throwing to Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside (along with superb tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert). Superimposing Wentz’s 85% catch rate onto the conservative 100 target projection, and then adding Reagor’s college catch rate and Wentz’s career yards-per-attempt and touchdown rate, yields Reagor a 63-catch, 439-yard and three TD season. It is safe to say that is Reagor’s floor for his rookie season if healthy.
Another bias that I had against Reagor is his frame. A quick and lazy search of wide receivers who are under 6’0”, and are Reagor’s weight or lower, turned up some surprising results. Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Randall Cobb, Santana Moss, DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Baldwin, among many others, had fantasy relevant — and sometimes championship-worthy — seasons at this size.
The one big question stands. Is Reagor healthy?
Conclusion
@RookieWhisper takes the W here. Jalen Reagor, welcome to my top three wide receiver ranks for 2020.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join us for Rookie Round Table Discussion Part 2, where @ff_walrus and I debate Henry Ruggs III.
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
