Possibly the most significant free agent move this offseason happened at the end of June–the Patriots signed Cam Newton (read the rapid reaction here). The biggest beneficiary of this move could be one of the sneakiest plays in fantasy.
Player Profile
The Patriots took Devin Asiasi in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. He was the second tight end taken, coming off the board in front of the likes of Adam Trautman and Harrison Bryant, both of whom had higher draft grades, according to NFL.com. However, it is not surprising to see the Patriots deviate from the status quo, and Asiasi brings some nice traits as a rookie tight end (even if they aren’t immediately apparent).
https://twitter.com/DP_NFL/status/1278288922628493313Asiasi did not produce until his 2019 season, where he had a 44/641/4 line. He isn’t the most exceptional blocker of all time. His athleticism and speed, however, pop off the film when watching him at UCLA. According to www.nfl.com prospect analysis, Asiasi is a threat in the seam and play-action-based attacks with deep corners and over routes. This ability is what gets me excited about Asiasi for this season and going forward.
Scheme and Past Usage
It’s reasonable to think New England’s offense will be play-action-heavy this year. The Patriots pass-catching options weren’t exactly world-beaters in 2019, and Asiasi has abilities at the tight end position to get separation in the middle and down the field. This is something the team has been missing for quite some time.
I am sure you’re thinking, “Yeah, but rookie tight ends don’t produce in the NFL”. That statement typically holds true, but the Patriots are not a typical team. That’s what sets them apart from the rest of the league. Rookie tight ends have performed well for the Patriots in the past. You might remember Rob Gronkowski finishing with a 42/546/10 line as a rookie in 2010 ( 9.8 PPR average fantasy points per game), and he wasn’t alone. Aaron Hernandez was also a rookie that year, and he posted a 45/563/6 line (10.1 PPR average fantasy points per game). Both performances by themselves would be good enough for top 12 performances in 2019 (points per game). I am not saying that Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are going to be Gronk and Hernandez this year, but it’s reasonable to think Asiasi could finish with something close to Hernandez numbers and finish a top 12 tight end.
How Cam Affects Things
Things get interesting when you consider who will be throwing him the ball. Cam Newton loves throwing to tight ends. For years, Cam Newton relied on a tight end in Carolina (Greg Olsen) as his go-to option. Newton had the fourth most TE targets of any QB, according to PFF in 2018. 2018 was also the last season Newton played a meaningful amount of games, missing all but two games of the 2019 season. In summary, Asiasi could be Newton’s new Greg Olsen.
Conclusions
Over the past 15 years, only two rookie tight ends have produced more than 600 yards receiving–the Giants’ Evan Engram totaled 722 yards receiving in 2017, and John Carlson recorded 627 with the Seahawks in 2008. Don’t let this scare you away. Asiasi could be Cam’s new Greg Olsen, and he could bring you a Top 12 season much in line with what Hernandez and Gronk brought to the Patriots as rookies in 2010. The bonus is that you have to spend nothing to reap the benefits as Asiasi is currently going as TE 42, which means you can get him for absolutely nothing as the last pick in your draft.
Feel free to let me know your thoughts and other players you are targeting very late in drafts. You can find me @cmoney52 on twitter. I look forward to hearing from you!
