Superflex Dynasty Backup QBs: Tier 1

In this series, I will examine the backup quarterback landscape with a focus on dynasty superflex formats. In those leagues, having a starting quarterback is extremely valuable, so many backups are rostered, with the number depending on how deep the league is. I’ll split the backups into tiers, starting from the most valuable down to the least. Keep in mind that the backup listed here is the backup in dynasty value, not necessarily the backup on the NFL roster. With that said, let’s jump into the top group.

Tier 1 – Potential Future Long-Term Starters

Jordan Love

Of the three quarterbacks in this group, Love is the one where I’m 100% confident that he will get a chance to start for an extended period in the NFL. The Packers drafted Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft with the 26th overall pick, so he comes with that crucial first-round draft capital. Also, incumbent starter Aaron Rodgers turned 36 years old in December, and the Packers have an easy out on his contract after 2021. At that point, the Packers would save $22 million by cutting Rodgers. 

There’s no way that the Packers spent a first-round pick on Love if they’re not going to use him as their starter in the future. However, fantasy owners may have to wait two years for Love to see the field. The Packers will not bench Rodgers in 2020 and could only get out of his contract before 2021 via trade, not via an unconditional release. If Rodgers performs poorly in 2020, I expect the Packers to explore trade options to see if they can go to Love for 2021. But either way, barring injury, fantasy owners will need to wait at least a year for Love.

Let’s move into what Love could bring to the table as a fantasy quarterback. In a previous piece I wrote before the NFL Draft, I broke down Love’s potential impact in the NFL and for fantasy, which you can find here. In that article, I stated that I don’t believe that Love is ready to be an NFL starter right now and that he had a mixed college career. Let’s look at Love’s full college stats at Utah State for a complete picture.

As you can see, Love struggled in his 2017 freshman season, before breaking out in 2018. However, he majorly regressed in 2019, throwing almost three times as many interceptions as any previous season. Love also presents little rushing upside, totaling only 403 rushing yards in college, although he did score seven rushing touchdowns in 2018.

Overall, Love’s dynasty value will remain stable in superflex formats, as fantasy owners know what they’re getting into with him. He’s a backup right now that will get to start sometime in 2021 or 2022. I value him around 2.05 in this year’s rookie class, because finding starting quarterbacks in superflex is tough.

I didn’t think that Daniel Jones and Drew Lock were any good going into 2019, but they got a chance to start and ended up rising in value. Since Love is virtually guaranteed a chance to do the same, he’s an excellent target, especially for those in a rebuilding phase. Now is the cheapest time to invest, so I’d suggest doing so.

Jameis Winston

Unlike Love, Jameis Winston has a long track record as an NFL starter. Let’s look at his career snapshot.

Unlike popular perception, Winston hasn’t been the fantasy force that many think he is. While he had a solid 2019 season for fantasy, he had never finished as a QB1 before this season. In 2019, he had both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as top receiving weapons, probably the best WR duo in the entire NFL. Perhaps his strong 2019 stats were more of a function of those two players than of Winston himself.

Whether Winston is a fantasy asset or not, in superflex dynasty formats, the more critical question is whether or not he will get another chance at being a starting quarterback in the future. If and when he becomes a starting quarterback, his value will immediately rise, likely to at least a back-end QB2 value due to his perceived upside. 

After the 2019 season, the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Winston, moving onto Hall of Famer Tom Brady as their new starting quarterback. Even though Winston was coming off a 5,000-yard season, no team seemed interested in pursuing him as a starting option. Eventually, Winston signed a one-year, $1.1 million deal with the Saints to back up Drew Brees. Winston is likely hoping to follow the same path that Teddy Bridgewater took from Saints’ backup to becoming a starter for the Panthers.

Given that Winston just turned 26 years old in January, there is still plenty of time for him to rebuild his value. He will likely not see any action in 2020 unless Brees gets hurt, but I expect him to compete with Taysom Hill for the Saints’ starting job in 2021. If the Saints can’t afford to pay Winston and Hill, Winston could also move on to a different team, where he should receive a chance to at least compete for a starting role.

However, I recognize that Winston is not guaranteed to get a real second chance. I value him less than Love because Winston could be a career backup who only spot starts and never regains his dynasty value. I’d pay around a mid-2nd round rookie pick for Winston, although I understand that probably won’t be enough to buy him. Therefore, I’m probably staying away from Winston in my dynasty superflex leagues.

Cam Newton

Yes, I understand that Cam Newton isn’t technically a “backup” quarterback. However, the point of this article is to look at players that aren’t currently starters that have the opportunity to become starters later on. Therefore, Newton is someone that requires a close examination.

We all know that Newton has a history of fantasy success. His calling card is his rushing ability, where he has averaged 38.4 rushing yards and .46 rushing touchdowns per game. Therefore, he adds almost seven fantasy points per game just with his legs. Newton has never been a great passer, with a 59.6% career completion rate and per-game averages of only 232.3 yards and 1.46 touchdowns. 

Therefore, for fantasy football, Newton has been a star, as you can see from the below table. I excluded 2019 since Newton only played two games.

In his first eight seasons, Newton averaged a QB8 or better finish in seven of them and was a top-five fantasy quarterback five times. Even in 2018, when he struggled with a significant shoulder injury, he still finished as a QB1. Outside of a down 2016 season, Newton has always been a reliable fantasy contributor when on the field.

Surprisingly, Newton had never missed more than two games in any season before 2019. He missed five total games in eight previous seasons, which is more durable than all but a few quarterbacks during that span. While some might think of Newton as “injury-prone” because of his recent injury issues, that narrative is entirely inaccurate.

Even though Newton is not “injury-prone,” it is impossible to deny that his recent injury history is a significant concern, both for fantasy owners and for NFL teams. In 2018, Newton’s throwing shoulder started to break down. His arm looked horrible down the stretch, and eventually, the Panthers had to put him on injured reserve. Newton eventually underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair his shoulder, but he recovered in time for the 2019 training camp.

Unfortunately, we never got to see Newton play in a regular-season game while fully healthy. In the Panthers’ third preseason game in 2019, Newton suffered a foot injury. The Panthers did not initially think the injury was severe, with Newton slated to start in Week 1. However, after two games, Newton wasn’t healthy or able to run properly on his injured foot. The Panthers turned to Kyle Allen in Week 3, and Newton never returned, eventually requiring surgery to repair his Lisfranc.

In the 2020 offseason, the Panthers decided to sign Teddy Bridgewater and eventually released Newton. In a typical offseason, I believe that NFL teams would have brought Newton in for workouts and physical examinations, but because of the pandemic, they have been unable to do so. Additionally, I think that unlike Winston, Newton will not sign as a backup quarterback and will either continue his career as a starter or not at all.

Therefore, Newton is a risky proposition for dynasty owners. I wholeheartedly believe that there’s at least some chance we’ve seen Newton play his last snap in the NFL, as he’s had a lengthy career and is already 31 years old. He’s earned over $120 million from his NFL contracts plus significant endorsements. On the other hand, if Newton returns, he will be a starter immediately upon signing. If you need a quarterback, I would be comfortable paying any second-round pick to acquire Newton. If he ever returns, that price will look like a bargain based on his career of fantasy success and the value of starting quarterbacks in superflex formats.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.