Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
POST-COMBINE MARKET REPORT
The NFL Combine has long marked the convergence of a new season for football fans. Over 300 prospects (though not all attend) are invited each offseason to showcase their athletic prowess in front of representatives from all 32 NFL teams. A single slip-up or lapse of focus can cost a young kid millions of dollars in the draft. Alternatively, a strong performance can raise a player’s stock. As real-life NFL scouts adjust their rankings, the dynasty market follows suit. The 2022 NFL Draft class has been perennially undervalued in the dynasty community. Managers are now rushing to adjust after an impressive all-around combine from virtually every position. In this edition of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be analyzing the post-combine market adjustments for the upcoming 2022 rookie class.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
RISER
Desmond Ridder QB (Cincinnati)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 37
March 2022 – QB 32
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 196
March 2022 – 162
Desmond Ridder Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Desmond Ridder lit the NFL Combine up like a Christmas tree on the 25th of December. Ridder ranked in the top five in all athletic testing while leading the group with a 4.52s 40-yard dash, a 10’7” broad jump, and a 36.00” vertical.
There remain unanswered questions surrounding Ridder’s accuracy and ability to read NFL-level defensive schemes. However, his outstanding display of athleticism should be enough to see the former Bearcats’ quarterback vaulted into the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. If Ridder retains mid-late first-round draft capital in the NFL, he will inevitably see his ADP pushed into the top-12 players in your upcoming rookie drafts.
FALLER
Kyren Williams RB (Notre Dame)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – RB 26
March 2022 – RB 48
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 107
March 2022 – 180
Kyren Williams Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Yikes! Kyren Williams was widely regarded as one of the top-5 (if not higher) running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class. That was until he ran the 40-yard dash. Following his embarrassing 40-times, Williams’ draft stock and dynasty value plummeted. Unfortunately for the Notre Dame product, his drastic decline in value did not stop there. Williams would continue to stumble throughout all testing.
40 Yard Dash – 4.65s
Vertical Jump – 32”
Broad Jump – 116”
Williams is undersized at just 5’9” and 194 lbs. He profiles closer to the leprechaun mascot of his alma mater than an NFL running back. According to Kent Lee Platte’s (@MathBomb) Relative Athletic Score (RAS), Kyren Williams finished with the worst scores of any running back at the 2022 NFL combine. No running back with Williams’ RAS of 1.75 or below has ever rushed for 1,000 yards in the NFL. Film grinders will continue to advocate for Williams and his “complete” skill set. However, chasing an outlier of this nature is sub-optimal when attempting to maximize the value of your rookie draft picks.
RISER
Christian Watson WR (North Dakota State)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – WR 73
March 2022 – Wr 66
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 188
March 2022 – 182
Christian Watson Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Christian Watson put his name on the map after an outstanding display at the Senior Bowl. Watson followed up by stunning all in attendance at the NFL Combine, leaving several of his peers in the dust. Watson led the wide receiver group with a physics-defying 11’4” broad jump. He also recorded a 38.50” vertical and a 4.36s 40-yard dash. What makes Watson’s numbers even more impressive is that he measured at 6’4” and 208 lbs. Watson’s height/weight-adjusted speed score of 119.9 ranks in the 98th percentile, per PlayerProfiler, and his RAS of 9.98 ranks fifth all-time amongst wide receivers. The dynasty market has been surprisingly slow to adjust to Watson’s rise in hype, despite his elite-level athletic prowess. Watson has seen a slight increase in perceived value but has yet to shake the pillars of the dynasty community. For savvy managers, this allows a unique opportunity to invest in one of the draft class’ most talented and undervalued options.
FALLER
Isaiah Spiller RB (Texas A&M)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – RB 14
March 2022 – RB 23
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 51
March 2022 – 73
Isaiah Spiller Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Prior to the NFL Combine, Isaiah Spiller entrenched himself in the conversation for RB1 overall of the 2022 draft class. Spiller’s draft stock and dynasty value are waning after electing to forego most on-field testing, including agility and speed drills. The testing in which Spiller did partake was widely underwhelming from all perspectives. He recorded an embarrassing 9’6” broad jump and a 30.00” vertical. Spiller’s broad jump was the worst of the running back group; His vertical leap tied for second-last with only ½ an inch separating him from last place. It is worth noting Spiller was reportedly dealing with an abductor strain that limited his participation. He will look to showcase his ability during his Pro Day workouts for Texas A&M and could conceivably increase his draft stock with impressive numbers. As it stands currently, Spiller is being surpassed by several of his draft mates on the dynasty market. The combine gives the average manager tangible evidence of a prospect’s athletic abilities. Spiller’s lack of testing has tapered expectations for the time being.
RISER
Breece Hall RB (Iowa State)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – RB 10
March 2022 – RB 6
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 41
March 2022 – 28
Breece Hall Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Breece Hall separated himself from the pack after a dominating combine. If his three consecutive years of outstanding production at Iowa State was not enough to impress you, Hall’s post combine profile certainly will. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hall has a running back prospect score of 99, making him one of only six running backs ever to meet that criteria.
Hall ranked amongst the top of the group in all athletic testing. He boasted a stunning 4.39s 40-yard dash while also leading the group with a 40.00” vertical leap and recording a 10’6” broad jump (third). The running back class has soured for many scouts in the NFL as no prospect is currently projected to be drafted in the first round. With that being said, there is no doubt in my eyes that Hall has earned himself the right to be the first running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft and your upcoming rookie drafts.
FALLER
David Bell WR (Purdue)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – WR 38
March 2022 – WR 50
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 100
March 2022 – 143
David Bell Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
It only took 4.65 seconds for David Bell’s rising dynasty value to come to a crashing halt. While several receivers benefited from the “fast track” at this year’s NFL Combine, Bell was not as fortunate. Unfortunately, the rest of his athletic testing would not fare so well either.
40 Yard Dash – 4.65s
Vertical Jump – 33”
Broad Jump – 118”
3 Cone Drill – 7.14s
20 Yd Shuttle – 4.57s
The dynasty community quickly wrote off Bell’s poor athletic testing with comps to Packers’ all-pro wideout Davante Adams.
Adams had a notoriously slow start to his NFL career, posting 88 catches for 929 yards and four touchdowns in his first two seasons combined. Nevertheless, Bell’s dramatic drop in perceived value does not bode well for his NFL Draft capital. Bell is, however, becoming a massive value in your upcoming dynasty rookie drafts. He produced three consistent years of top-end production whilst being the offensive focal point at Purdue. Like Adams, dynasty managers may have to be patient with Bell regarding an early NFL breakout. A short waiting period for elite production from a rookie should not be cause for concern, yet the market is panicking. Be prepared to draft Bell as an incredible value in the early second rounds of your rookie drafts.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Join the #DFFArmy to keep in step with exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE #AlwaysBeBuilding
For previous articles in this series: Dynasty Market Sweep / Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2 / Dynasty Market Sweep: Addressing the Age Cliff / Dynasty Market Sweep: Coaching Changes / Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie QB Value Review
