Rookie Analysis
When analyzing wide receiver prospects, analysts such as myself, like to check boxes when a player eclipses a designated threshold for a certain metric. No prospect in this class checked more of these boxes across all metrics than Josh Downs. Downs was an uber-producer during his time at Chapel Hill. When Sam Howell or Drake Maye needed a big play, Downs was the unquestioned target. In this article, I will take you through the numbers and display why you should be targeting Josh Downs in your dynasty rookie drafts.
We’re two weeks from the combine and on the last leg of my trip around the rookie prospects by ranking tight ends. TE is the most frustrating position in fantasy to scout and find any kind of production. My regular data dump from our DFF Data Guru @ChrisMiles1017 will be left out for this reason and we’ll stick to the film until we get Combine numbers.
At this point in the off-season, I prefer to write articles on prospects that aren’t in that elite tier so that DFF members have a value-added when reading. After all most have likely heard quite enough about the top prospects in the class to make their decision one way or the other. For that reason, I haven’t done a deep profile on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In my mind, he is a no-brainer prospect.
One of the most polarizing prospects in the 2023 draft class is Ole Miss running back Zach Evans. Today, we will use my personal prospect grading model to evaluate Evans as a prospect and see what kind of player he might become in the NFL.
The Senior Bowl has come and gone and we move one step further in our off-season process. Thankfully, I’m one step closer in my own rookie evaluations with my first look at the 2023 rookie receiver class. We’ll use film analysis numerical data from the regular season and look at using KPIs based on DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell is consistent with the new wave of undersized wide receivers recently ushered into the NFL. Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Rondale Moore, and Elijah Moore are redefining what it means to be a “prototype” wide receiver. Route running and the ability to create separation are being prioritized over physical size.
We’ve officially passed the NFL draft declaration date and we know who exactly our fresh batch of rookie picks will be. That means no more Twitter speculation and narratives about who will declare. (Looking at you Stroud.) Sure it’s a little early to rank without draft capital. Luckily, we have plenty of numerical data from the regular season we can look at using KPIs based from DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Florida quarterback, Anthony Richardson.
The fantasy community has adopted a strange tradition – hyping up a draft class a few years down the road, only to completely discredit them the year they’re to be drafted. Maybe not ‘completely’, but it certainly feels that way. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most recent victims of our yearly tradition. I want to discuss why that is and see if we can draw any significant conclusions about our views on slot usage and production.
Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young.
Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through my first rookie, Stetson Bennett.
As the 2022 Fantasy Season comes to a close we get to shift to off-season Twitter topics that leave us arguing with strangers about a likely UDFA QB until our feet go numb on the toilet. Yes, folks, it’s time for rookie talk before we even have draft capital!
What if I told you that the QB1 of my rookie QB model for the 2022 class was now one mistake away from becoming a starter? What if I also told you that this QB would have been QB4 of the 2021 class, ahead of Zach Wilson, despite being drafted in the 5th round of the NFL draft and not the first? These statements should cause excitement for the Washington Commanders rookie QB, Sam Howell.
Pickett showed true confidence throwing the ball downfield, something we hadn’t seen out of Mitchell Trubisky. Pickett’s willingness to let it fly is a great sign of his fantasy value. The Steelers have a great group of offensive weapons, headlined by second-year RB Najee Harris. Inserting Pickett into the lineup will only open up more opportunities for Harris. This move increases the stock for every pass-catcher in the offense as well. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth should at least be getting more big-play chances. The biggest winner, however, is rookie WR George Pickens. The 6’3” field-stretching receiver saw the ball come his way much more frequently in the short time he had playing with Pickett under center. We saw what Pickett was able to do at Pitt last season, supporting a Biletnikoff award-winning WR in Jordan Addison. “Pickett to Pickens” is going to be a call we could be hearing for years to come.
Historically, rookie wide receivers have taken the beginning of the season to integrate themselves into the passing game plan and develop chemistry with the quarterback. However, two of the five aforementioned rookies, London and Wilson, fast-tracked the proverbial rookie wide receiver waiting period with eye-popping performances through two weeks. Let’s look at them as prospects and dive into their peripherals to see if this start is sustainable.
“Dumpster Diving” is a series at Dynasty Football Factory that will help you find late-round hidden gems or cheap players to acquire. These players are far from perfect but they could potentially land you a high return on your investment. If something breaks right these players can have a measurable impact on your team(s) and you will be the manager with them stashed on your bench. If not, you cut bait and move on. You want assets on your team that will appreciate and that is the goal here. All of these players will be below the top 150 players as valued on keeptradecut.com
For this article, we dive into Sam Howell.
A California All-State selection in both football and basketball in high school, Drake London was recruited to USC to play BOTH sports. While he played as a freshman on the basketball team, he really stood out on the football field. In his true freshman season, he posted 39 receptions, 567 yards, and five TDs in 13 games with nine as a starter. He put up similar statistics in the covid-shortened 2020 PAC-12 season before completely dominating this past season. In 2021 he registered 88 catches for 1,084 yards and seven TDs in just eight games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.