Dynasty Analysis
In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football quarterbacks. I started by analyzing the top 12 quarterbacks by points per game in each season for the past 4 seasons, identifying a total of 26 players.
Next, I focused on quarterbacks who achieved multiple top 12 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 15 total quarterbacks.
| Josh Allen | Patrick Mahomes | Brock Purdy | Jalen Hurts |
| Lamar Jackson | Dak Prescott | Trevor Lawrence | Bo Nix |
| Daniel Jones | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Jared Goff |
| Kyler Murray | Jordan Love | Tua Tagovailoa |
These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article.
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- 15/15 averaged more than 23 PPR in their best college season
- 15/15 threw for more than 5000 yards in their college career
- 15/15 threw for more than 40 touchdowns in their college career
- 14/15 passed for more than 175 yards a game (Hurts)
- 14/15 rushed for more than 10 yards a game (Goff)
- 14/15 averaged more than 20 PPR a game in their college career (Love)
- 14/15 had more than 2 touchdowns to interceptions ratio (Jones)
- 14/15 had more than 300 rushing yards in college (Goff)
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The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career. You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here. You can find the wide receivers ranked 10 to 6 here. You can find the running back RB1 model here. For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges. The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital […]
In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football running backs. I started by analyzing the top 24 running backs by points per game in each season, identifying a total of 49 players. Next, I focused on running backs who achieved multiple top 24 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 26 total running backs. Lastly, I wanted to break it down one more time to get only the elite running backs. So I broke the list down into guys who had multiple top 12 finishes in points per game over the last four seasons and came up with a list of 15 guys. Saquon Barkley Derrick Henry Jahmyr Gibbs Joe Mixon Christian McCaffrey Bijan Robinson Kyren Williams De’Von Achane Breece Hall James Conner Alvin Kamara James Cook Josh Jacobs Jonathan Taylor Aaron Jones These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article. 15/15 averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry. 14/15 were Power 5 running backs (not Aaron Jones). 14/15 were graded 6.0 or higher for NFL.com grades (not James Conner). 13/15 were drafted in the top 3 rounds (not Aaron Jones or Kyren Williams). 13/15 had more than 30 career catches in college (not Derrick Henry or James Conner). 13/15 had more than .7 touchdowns per game (not James Cook or Josh Jacobs). 13/15 had more than 16 fantasy points per game (not James Cook or Josh Jacobs). 12/15 had more than 95 yards per game (not James […]
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 cover mailbag questions […]
Eli Stowers is a high-upside fantasy prospect and should be considered the premier receiving tight end in the 2026 rookie class, with borderline TE1 potential. His value stems from “WR-type” athleticism: a 4.51 40-yard dash and an all-time NFL Combine record for tight ends with a 45.5-inch vertical jump. Stowers now owns that record, and it wasn’t close. He didn’t just break it, he shattered it.
Whatever team selects him in the 2026 NFL Draft will likely deploy him as an explosive “move” TE or big slot option, with a projected landing spot in the second round. He did line up and play WR at times in college. Now, I know the NFL isn’t college, but that nugget alone speaks for itself. Ask yourself: What other tight end can say that?
The Con
Stowers isn’t a George Kittle type who’ll get it done in the trenches. He profiles more like Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, or Brock Bowers: below-average blockers, or perhaps worse. But all of them are legitimate receiving tight ends, and nobody questions their fantasy value.
The Pro
No team drafting Stowers is taking him for his blocking. That’s exactly what creates the discount in your rookie drafts, and make no mistake, he’ll be drafted with the intent of being a lethal weapon. Organizations don’t spend Day 2 capital on someone they view as a JAG. As long as Stowers is designated as a TE and not a WR, we’re essentially looking at
Make no mistake, the game we play is fueled in many ways. It’s difficult to argue that winning championships doesn’t lord over all, but as someone who’s played in fantasy football leagues for money since 2003, I’ll attest that the closest high is often accompanied by a monumental trade. As players, we have to understand that we’re not going to win every transaction, and when we do lose, it’s best to limit the damage. But now and then, and we’re all guilty, we make a move so heinous that years later you can pinpoint the exact day and time the transaction occurred, sort of like a natural disaster or a painful surgery. Being accountable is key as an analyst, so here are a few of the DFF Crew’s most regrettable moves, starting with my own. Sent Ja’Marr Chase for Marvin Harrison Jr. – 2024 @DFF_MR In a 2024 Dynasty Football Factory League Startup, I traded away Ja’Marr Chase for Marvin Harrison straight up. My initial offer of Chase for Marv plus Zach Charbonnet had been rejected, and since MHJ was selected a mere four slots after Chase, this unraveled into a scenario where Rookie Fever got the best of me. I opted to sacrifice value in favor of the shiny toy. It was Marv’s rookie season, and expectations were high as the “generational prospect” hype was generating steam via the Dynasty Community as a potential future Dynasty 1.01 selection. Conversely, Chase was coming off a somewhat mediocre 2023 campaign (by his standards), posting 16.8 FPPG, much of it fueled by […]
If you’re a portfolio dynasty player (I’d put the threshold at around eight or more leagues), it’s worth periodically checking your overall dynasty exposures to make sure your ownership percentages actually reflect your player takes. Tracking player exposure helps you identify where you’re underweight and looking to add, and who you might want to sell to avoid being over-leveraged. I use Dynasty Data Lab for this, and the dynasty offseason is the perfect window to review your exposures. In today’s article, I’ll break down my top 10 most-owned players and share my thoughts on each from a dynasty perspective. To keep this article focused solely on impact players, I’ll just be looking at the first 12 rounds of startup ADP. 1. Harold Fannin (TE – CLE) – 41.2% ownership Fannin was a major third-round target for me in last year’s dynasty rookie drafts, coming off the most productive tight end season in college football history. He was overlooked due to his athletic limitations and the poor competition he faced at Bowling Green (both legitimate concerns), but the discount was simply too large, considering his production profile. I’m thrilled to have so many shares of what I believe is a clear Top 5 dynasty TE, and I acquired most of these shares for a fraction of his current price. 2. Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) – 35.3% ownership Another 2025 rookie prospect who was a major target of mine in the latter part of the first round. I loved everything about Loveland’s college profile; he was elite from a per-route perspective, […]
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 compare the rookie […]
After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year. Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with seven of the first eight players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. Now on to the 2026 class. This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade. You can find the rankings for […]
We’re less than a month out from the NFL Draft, and by now you’ve probably gotten the full rundown on every rookie prospect worth knowing. But here’s the thing: winning rookie drafts isn’t about knowing who everyone else likes. It’s about finding the guys the dynasty community is sleeping on. And today, I’m confident I’ve found your Round 2 steal at wide receiver. That receiver is Antonio Williams out of Clemson. Right now, the dynasty community is treating him like a virtual zero. He’s the WR139 overall and the 31st overall Superflex rookie prospect on KeepTradeCut, a crowdsourced dynasty ranking site. My ranks? WR37 overall. 11th overall Superflex dynasty rookie asset. That’s a pretty absurd discrepancy. So let me explain exactly why I’m so high on Williams and why you should be too. High School Williams was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, ranked as a four-star recruit and the WR6 in his class on 247Sports. He finished his senior year at Dutch Fork with 80 receptions for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. Williams was also a tremendous punt returner in high school, averaging 26.2 yards on 29 career returns. Dutch Fork was one of the strongest teams in South Carolina, winning three state championships during Williams’ time there. He was selected as an Under Armour All-American. Williams received offers from many top programs across the country, but elected to stay close to home and signed with Clemson, under HC Dabo Swinney. Clemson (2022-25) Williams was an immediate producer for Clemson, leading the team in receptions and yards […]
Using his proprietary ranking model, @force_fantasy reveals the rookie RBs ranked 15 through 11 for dynasty fantasy football purposes.
Can you smell that? Yep, it’s startup season. Most of the big names on the market have found new homes via free agency, so some player values have shifted since the end of the 2025 season. And they’ll shift again soon, with the NFL Draft less than a month away. After jumping into some 2026 startups recently, I wanted to share my thoughts on the quarterback and tight end markets. Here’s what I’m seeing at those two spots with some suggestions on how to attack them in drafts. Quarterbacks The number of quarterbacks being selected in round one of Superflex drafts is as low as I’ve seen in years. Gone are the days of six or seven signal-callers flying off the board early. Managers want the elite running backs and wide receivers at the top and are willing to bypass QBs to get them. Right now, it’s Josh Allen and Drake Maye as the only constants, and even those guys are slipping in some instances. I just got Allen at pick 1.04 in a startup, then followed it up with Lamar Jackson at 2.09! Imagine getting that duo just one or two years ago — you would’ve had to trade away most of your middle-round selections to make that happen. After Allen and Maye, you’ll usually see Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, or Caleb Williams go later in the round, but I’ve also seen them fall to the second. Hard to hate the value there. If you’ve ever wanted Patrick Mahomes, I’ve got good news for you: he’s never been cheaper. […]
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 cover a three-round […]
There was an interesting question posed by a subscriber in our DFF Discord this past weekend, following this tweet being posted: Seeing the potential that the 2027 draft class has at the quarterback position, Josh asked this: It’s an excellent question, and one we need to be asking ourselves for dynasty purposes. Obviously, a good number of guys from McShay’s list above either won’t pan out as first-round talents or will elect to stay in college for the 2027 season if they have remaining eligibility. But there are additional guys not on this list who could end up being first-round selections. Josh Hoover. John Mateer. Maybe DJ Lagway finally has that breakout season everyone’s been waiting for. Maybe Drew Mestemaker’s G5 dominance carries over into the P4, and he emerges as a top pick. It’s hard to project any of this so far out, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s take McShay at his word and treat the 2027 QB class as the “historic” one he’s calling it. Who will these quarterbacks be taking over for? Let’s take a look at the guys whose jobs may not be as secure as we think. These names may be good sell candidates in dynasty for you, especially on a team that’s rebuilding or retooling. The Top “Cut” Candidates I’ll kick off my list by covering the quarterbacks I feel have the most to prove this coming season and will likely be out of a starting job by 2027 or sooner. Geno Smith (NYJ) – Geno is the most obvious quarterback […]
Welcome back for another edition of Hit Rate by Rounds. In today’s article, we’ll be focusing on the running back position. The goal of this article is to see whether draft capital has become a stronger predictor of fantasy production for running backs over the past 14 seasons. I split the data into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because RBs typically take a couple of years to produce. Adding rookies to the equation would skew the numbers too much in favor of the older group. The charts below show the hit rate for running backs drafted in each round (1–7), measuring what percentage went on to post at least one Top-12, Top-24, or Top-36 fantasy season. This gives us a sense of how likely a back is to deliver meaningful fantasy value based on draft capital. Looking at Round 1, the same number of running backs have been drafted in Round 1 in both groups, but the success rates have decreased. It has become harder to identify elite first-round running backs in recent years. Rd 1 RB Total Top 12 Top 24 Top 36 2011 – 2017 9 = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% 2018 – 2024 9 = 6/9 = 67% = 7/9 = 78% = 8/9 = 89% 2011 – 2024 18 = 14/18 = 78% = 15/18 = 83% = 16/18 = 89% Looking at Round 2, fewer running backs have been drafted in Round 2 recently, and the hit rates […]
The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.
These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here.
You can find the running back RB1 model here.
For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.
The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find the 2025 model here and the 2024 model here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Even the NFL had Harrison higher, as Nabers was drafted behind Harrison in the NFL Draft. Here is the WR1 model I published in 2023, featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1. The WR1 model is exceptional at identifying the true elite wide receivers. 17 of the 20 top-scoring prospects with at least three years in the NFL have had a top-24 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season.
Fourteen of the 20 have also had a top-12 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season. Nine have had multiple top 12 seasons, including perennial top-5 studs like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.
So let’s dive into the 2026 class overall WR1 Model Score.
10. Chris Bell, Louisville | WR1 Model Score: 24.0
Based on historical comps, Chris Bell’s WR1 Model score of 24.0 gives him an 35.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
Adonai Mitchell
Malik Washington
Kyle Williams
The Good
Bell posted a very impressive weighted dominator (team share of receiving yards and touchdowns) of 38.2%. This ranked 3rd among wide receivers in this draft class. Louisville was not a prolific passing offense
I wanted to see if the NFL has improved at drafting based on rounds over the past 14 seasons. I split it into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because rookies typically take a couple of years to produce. More wide receivers have been drafted in Round 1 recently, and the success rates have increased, as have opportunities via bet365 bonus information. It has become easier to identify elite first round wide receivers in recent years.
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 discuss recent free agency moves and fantasy impact.
Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt is one of the more predictive analytical statistics for running backs for future fantasy success. Over the past three years, the top 6 running backs with the highest college career missed tackles forced per attempt rate are: Bijan Robinson – 39.3% Trey Benson – 39.2% Tyrone Tracy – 38.5% Ashton Jeanty – 37.8% Bucky Irving – 36.2% For a singular metric, that is a nice hit rate. Then how is it, in an absolutely horrible running back class overall, there is a prospect with an otherworldly 46.9% missed tackles forced per attempt career rate that no one is talking about? Fam, meet Terion Stewart. So why haven’t you heard of Stewart? Well, for one, he was used sparingly at Virginia Tech this past season. Before that, he played four years for Bowling Green. Before you say, “Ahhh, Bowling Green,” well, remember this is the same college that just produced Harold Fannin Jr. The MAC is definitely not the SEC, but it is a competitive conference. While at Bowling Green, Stewart never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing, staying under the radar of the best teams. He did rush for 917 and 753 his last two years there, however. The Hokies brought Stewart over for his final college season. Stewart suffered a series of injuries that forced him into a walking boot in August, which was then followed by a shoulder injury in October. He finished the year with a mediocre 82 attempts for 469 yards. Oh, and remember how you were concerned about Stewart compiling those stats […]
Introducing Derek Zammit, 2026 freshman QB for Washington. View his official scouting card for HS production, strengths, and weaknesses.
Introducing LaMarcus Bell, 2026 freshman RB for Utah. View his official scouting card for HS production, strengths, and weaknesses.
Introducing Jamal Rule, 2026 freshman RB for Nebraska. View his official scouting card for HS production, strengths, and weaknesses.
Introducing Jermaine Bishop, 2026 freshman WR for Texas. View his official scouting card for HS production, strengths, and weaknesses.
Introducing KJ Edwards, 2026 freshman RB for Texas A&M. View his official scouting card for HS production, strengths, and weaknesses.