Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL
Free Agency has ripped through the dynasty community like a tidal wave, leaving a myriad of monumental market changes in its wake. Several teams have made franchise-altering transactions to address needs at the quarterback position. Managers are left scrambling to adjust to the mass amounts of change throughout the league.
Quarterbacks can often be overvalued in Superflex leagues, causing the most severe fluctuations in the market. In this episode of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be analyzing the post-transaction reactions to the ever-changing quarterback landscape.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
RISER
Tom Brady (TB)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 52
March 2022 – QB 25
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 384
March 2022 – 115
Tom Brady Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
The GOAT has returned to the field! After 40 short days of retirement, Tom Brady decided to return to the Buccaneers for the 2022 season.
Brady’s market value had all but fallen off the face of the earth following his initial retirement announcement. However, his rostership percentages remained above 90% on all fantasy platforms. Whether cognitive bias or unwillingness to admit defeat, managers are now being rewarded with at least one more season from the greatest quarterback ever to play the game.
Currently ranked outside of the QB2 tier, Brady will undeniably outperform his current perceived value. Even at the ripe age of 44, Brady led the NFL in passing yards (5,316) and passing touchdowns (43) in 2021. He did so while showing no decline in arm strength or dexterity, leading the league in deep ball attempts (87) and air yards (5,756).
If your roster is one quarterback away from taking home the league title, then I see no issue with paying face value for Brady’s services. Keep in mind that you may be left holding the bag on a depreciated asset following the 2022 season, but the taste of victory is well worth the cost of acquisition.
RISER
Mitchell Trubisky (PIT)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 43
March 2022 – QB 48
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 241
March 2022 – 142
Mitchell Trubisky Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Mitch Trubisky is heading to the Steel City after a short stint as the Bills’ backup quarterback. Trubisky inked a remarkable two-year deal worth $14.2M with the Steelers.
The face of the Steelers franchise is changing now that Ben Roethlisberger has hung up the cleats. Trubisky may be nothing more than a stop-gap quarterback while the Steelers develop a younger option. Nevertheless, Trubisky now has meaningful dynasty value after being cast away by many.
Trubisky has had several ups and downs throughout his career. As a starter for the Bears, Trubisky showed flashes of elite upside at times but largely struggled within Matt Nagy’s putrid offense. Who knows what Trubisky could do with a potential starting job in a Mike Tomlin offense and several high-end pass-catching options. Truthfully, we may never get to find out.
Several pundits have the Steelers targeting a quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft. If that does occur, Trubisky’s value will likely plummet back down to that of a mid-tier QB3.
As I previously mentioned, the Steelers may look to lean on Trubisky in the interim if they do draft a quarterback. Playing in a completely new system without job security does not bode well for Trubisky’s future dynasty value. I would look to capitalize on any manager showing interest in your leagues.
RISER
Matt Ryan (IND)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 34
March 2022 – QB 31
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 185
March 2022 – 141
Matt Ryan Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
A change of scenery has done little to improve Matt Ryan’s overall stock in dynasty circles. The former NFL MVP will have to forge a new road in his storied career. Ryan was Traded to the Colts in exchange for a third-round draft pick.
Ryan will be 37 by the time he steps onto the field for the Colts and has shown signs of decline throughout the past few seasons. Although he is in the twilight of his career, Ryan will present the Colts with an immediate upgrade and chance to compete for a playoff spot, one that they were so close to obtaining in 2021.
Much like Brady, Ryan is almost guaranteed to outperform his current perceived value, but managers are wary of investing in a quarterback during the twilight stages of their career. Ryan’s overall efficiency should be enough to elevate the receiving numbers of third-year wideout Michael Pittman. However, his role for the Colts will likely be a game manager as the team leans heavily on superstar running Jonathan Taylor.
RISER
Marcus Mariota (ATL)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 45
March 2022 – QB 35
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 248
March 2022 – 153
Marcus Mariota Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Immediately after shipping Matt Ryan cross-conference to the Colts, the Falcons signed free agent Marcus Mariota to a two-year contract worth $18.75M with a potential out following the 2022 season.
Mariota’s dynasty evaluation falls under the same umbrella as Mitch Trubisky. There may be a short window to capitalize on an increase in value, but the production floor remains minimal with both players.
FALLER
Drew Lock (SEA)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 41
March 2022 – QB 44
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 242
March 2022 – 262
Drew Lock Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
It appears as if the dynasty community is entirely out on Drew Lock as a viable asset. Not even a new team or a starting role could save Lock’s dying dynasty value.
Lock was used as trade fodder in the Broncos/Seahawks agreement that sent Russell Wilson to the opposing conference. The dynasty community views Lock as nothing more than a name on a depth chart.
The cost of acquisition is undoubtedly intriguing. At his current decrepit value outside of the top 250 assets, Lock could still see a significant increase if the Seahawks commit to him as the starter. Be advised Lock is a volatile asset with a reputation for disappointment. Managers will need the chips to fall in the perfect order if they hope to return value.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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For previous articles in this series: Dynasty Market Sweep / Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2 / Dynasty Market Sweep: Addressing the Age Cliff / Dynasty Market Sweep: Coaching Changes / Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie QB Value Review / Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Combine Market Report / Dynasty Market Sweep: Quarterback Carousel Part 1
If you’re interested in more free agent reactions, check out Free Agency Day 1 and Day 2: Dynasty Winners and Losers by Chris Museezer (@force_fantasy).
