Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL
Free Agency has ripped through the dynasty community like a tidal wave, leaving a myriad of monumental market changes in its wake. Several teams have made franchise-altering transactions to address needs at the quarterback position. Managers are left scrambling to adjust to the mass amounts of change throughout the league.
Quarterbacks can often be overvalued in Superflex leagues, causing the most severe fluctuations in the market. In this episode of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be analyzing the post-transaction reactions to the ever-changing quarterback landscape.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
RISER
Deshaun Watson (CLE)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 14
March 2022 – QB 7
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 51
March 2022 – 10
Deshaun Watson Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
It is difficult to remove emotion when viewing Deshaun Watson as an asset in dynasty football leagues. Watson has long been the centerpiece of an ongoing media frenzy surrounding allegations of sexual assault against the quarterback. On March 11th, 2022, a grand jury elected not to indict Watson. Seemingly mere moments after, trade rumors began to swirl in the NFL.
The talking heads of network television mulled endlessly about Watson’s potential landing spots. After numerous teams attempted to land the controversial quarterback, it was reported that the Falcons and the Saints were the front runners in contention. Then, the Browns flew off the top rope in an unsuspecting high-risk maneuver to acquire Watson in one of the biggest trades in NFL history.
It wouldn’t be long thereafter that the dynasty market erupted with an astonishing valuation for Watson. Market consensus currently has Watson’s cost as a top ten draft pick in dynasty startups. I’m not buying.
There is no denying Watson’s electric ability when on the field. He is certainly capable of performing amongst the top quarterbacks in fantasy. In Watson’s three full seasons as a starter for the Texans, he finished as the QB5 overall each time. However, managers are still waiting to hear if the NFL will impose a suspension on the Browns’ new quarterback. His current evaluation as a top-ten asset comes with a litany of unknown risks.
If you have held onto Watson through the turmoil or bought low during, now may be an opportune time to cash out. Managers looking to invest in Watson as a reinstated top-tier asset should likely wait until the future is more detailed. It is hard to envision Watson’s value climbing any higher than it currently is.
RISER
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 14
March 2022 – QB 9
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 51
March 2022 – 19
Russell Wilson Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
One of the first offseason transactions to rock the fantasy football world was the trade of Seahawks long-time franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos. The Blockbuster Trade sent shockwaves across the fantasy landscape.
The AFC West gets another premier playmaker in an already stacked division. Following Wilson’s arrival, all Broncos pass-catchers saw immediate boosts to value in market consensus. Jerry Jeudy jumped from WR34 to WR16. Courtland Sutton received a substantial value increase from WR48 to WR28 after a season in which many had written him off as a viable fantasy starter. Lastly, Albert Okwuegbunam rose from TE23 to TE13. Albert O now sits atop the Broncos depth chart following the departure of Noah Fant as part of the trade.
“Mr. Unlimited” also received a welcomed boost in dynasty value, vaulting from just outside the top 50 into a top-20 asset. Wilson had a down year in 2021 while playing through a mallet finger injury and poor offensive game scripts. When healthy, Wilson is a lethal operator from behind the line of scrimmage for fantasy managers. He is still in the athletic prime for a quarterback at 33 years old and should return to elite form on a new team.
RISER
Derek Carr (LV)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 23
March 2022 – QB 16
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 85
March 2022 – 53
Derek Carr Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Derek Carr didn’t change teams this offseason, but he did receive a noteworthy increase in perceived market value. Carr’s rise up the ranks is directly related to the Raiders quarterback reuniting with a familiar face. With the arrival of Davante Adams, managers are wishfully hoping Carr can reach new heights.
Carr and Adams have a proven report from their days together at Fresno State. Carr could provide managers with some sneaky production in 2022, considering his current cost. Now that the Raiders have an elite-alpha wide receiver on the roster, Carr’s low-end touchdown numbers should increase.
In 2021, Carr ranked fifth in both air yards (5071) and passing yards (4804). He recorded 7.7 yards per attempt while maintaining a true completion percentage of 73.4%, with both metrics ranking in the top ten. Despite throwing for just 23 touchdowns, Carr finished as the QB16 overall last season, which matches his new trade value. The arrival of Adams will surely help Carr’s touchdown production, allowing for the quarterback to outperform the ranking.
FALLER
Carson Wentz (WAS)
Position Rank:
February 2022 – QB 25
March 2022 – QB 34
Overall Rank:
February 2022 – 126
March 2022 – 148
Carson Wentz Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
The Commanders’ acquisition of Carson Wentz hurt his dynasty value more than helped it. After spending just one year as the starting quarterback for the Colts, Wentz returns to the NFC East.
Wentz is a definite and immediate upgrade for the Commanders. The former Eagles and Colts quarterback will supplant Taylor Heinicke as the presumed starter for the 2022 season. Nevertheless, dynasty managers are viewing the treatment of Wentz around the NFL as an expendable asset to be a red flag.
The market has rightfully adjusted its course, removing Wentz from the QB2 tier altogether. There may be a slight overreaction as Wentz does not rank within the top 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL despite having a secured role. However, I do not view a slight value discrepancy as an area to exploit when maximizing roster value.
THE REMAINING FEW
Jameis Winston (NO)
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Not all of the above-listed names are free agents, but they are all rumored to be on the move in the near future. Be prepared to adjust to the growing market with the built-in knowledge that managers are often over reactionary to quarterback movement.
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Join the #DFFArmy to keep in step with exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE. #AlwaysBeBuilding
For previous articles in this series: Dynasty Market Sweep / Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2 / Dynasty Market Sweep: Addressing the Age Cliff / Dynasty Market Sweep: Coaching Changes / Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie QB Value Review / Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Combine Market Report
If you’re interested in more free agent reactions, check out Free Agency Day 1 and Day 2: Dynasty Winners and Losers by Chris Museezer (@force_fantasy).
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