After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is Part 8 of the series, where @DFF_Karp and I discuss rookie Zack Moss.
Rookie Zack Moss, overall rank 27, RB10
@DFF_Karp on why Moss is ranked too low:
Once again, my opinion on the prospect has nothing to do with this ranking. I don’t even care about what Moss brings as a prospect when saying that this ranking is criminally low. Moss will get touches in 2020, and any running back that receives significant work in his rookie year should go in the top two rounds of rookie drafts.
The Bills spent a third-round pick on Moss to complement incumbent starter, Devin Singletary. Singletary played well in 2019, with 151 carries for 775 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 29 receptions for 194 yards and two touchdowns. However, despite Singletary’s success, Frank Gore led the team with 166 carries. Even worse, Gore had 11 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to only two for Singletary. The same trend holds inside the 10, with 18 carries for Gore and three for Singletary. The Bills didn’t trust Singletary as their goal-line back, even after Singletary took over most of the rushing work on the rest of the field.
Going into 2020, the Bills made it very clear that they expect Moss to directly step into Gore’s role. I expect Singletary to outproduce Moss in fantasy, based on Moss’ lack of PPR upside. But, Moss could easily score seven or more touchdowns in 2020. The Bills’ offense should improve with a step forward from Josh Allen and the acquisition of Stefon Diggs, giving them more red zone opportunities. Also, the Bills have no other meaningful running backs on the roster to compete with Singletary and Moss.
Because of all these factors, Moss is my 18th overall rookie and my RB7. In dynasty, value is king, and Moss will accrue value throughout 2020. Don’t make the mistake of passing on Moss for players like Lynn Bowden, K.J. Hamler, or Antonio Gandy-Golden, who all rank higher in Dynasty Diagnostic’s rankings. None of those players will make any significant impact in Year 1 and they will all lose value while Moss rises.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
I do not disagree with any points that you have made here. From a vacated production perspective, Moss looks to be a clear option to move up the draft board. Especially as he is sitting outside of the 2nd-round based on the current ranking. What worries me most about Moss, an often-injured and older running back compared to most rookies, is actually his situation.
Since Sean McDermott has been the Bills’ head coach, he has leaned on older veterans. And they have been significantly older. In 2017, McDermott had a 29-year-old LeSean McCoy rush the ball 289 times. 2018 saw McDermott have a pair of 30-year-old running backs, in LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, rush the ball for a combined 276 times. In 2019, the leading rusher was a 36-year-old Frank Gore, who handled 166 rushes despite being a full 1.5-yards-per-carry less efficient than Devin Singletary. We also have to account for Josh Allen, who has run the ball 198 times since entering the league. In 2019 Allen saw a 22% increase in carries, in a season where McDermott had a lack of veteran running backs to lean on.
The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs leads me to believe that the Bills will be testing Allen’s passing ability this season. This will lead to an increase in pass attempts and a decrease in rushes available, eating further into Moss’s potential to take on Gore’s vacated work. I believe that based on Singletary’s efficiency last year, Allen’s rushing production, and an increased pass-to-run ratio, Moss will see closer to 100-120 carries this season (barring injury).
Conclusion
If you are near the end of the 2nd-round of fantasy drafts and are drafting based on 2020 need, I do support @DFF_Karp’s claim that Moss is a good pick. However, if your team appears to be in a healthy place for 2020, I would suggest using that pick on players with significantly more long-term upside like Bowden, Hamler, and — if you want to take a high-risk high-reward player — AGG.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join me and @CKarayannides for Rookie Round Table Part 8, where we discuss Joshua Kelley.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor, Part 2: Henry Ruggs III, Part 3: Tee Higgins, Part 4: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Part 5: AJ Dillon, Part 6: Bryan Edwards, Part 7: Antonio Gandy-Golden
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
