After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is Part 5 of the series, where @DFF_Ztrain and I discuss rookie AJ Dillon.
Rookie AJ Dillon, overall rank 18, RB8
@DFF_Ztrain on why Dillon will break out:
AJ Dillon should find himself higher than RB8 in these rankings. The reason why is: opportunity. I should note that I don’t envision Dillon playing a massive role this season. The Packers have Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams entrenched in that backfield for 2020. That said, both Williams’ and Jones’ contracts are up after the 2020 season. There is no chance that the Packers bring both back, in addition to AJ Dillon. Clearly, the Packers have a view of the future and are building the type of roster they want for years to come. Critique the trade all you want, but we’ll have to wait to see how this season goes.
The Packers have put themselves in a good spot to be relevant, potentially for the next decade, if this draft hits. Even if AJ Dillon finds himself in a timeshare, it has become clear that the Packers see themselves as a run-first offense. This will afford Dillon a ton of opportunities.
Throughout his college career, AJ Dillon faced a stacked box on 44% of his carries. Against those stacked boxes he averaged over five yards per carry and forced 133 missed tackles. With Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams on offense, teams rarely stacked the box against the Packers last season. This resulted in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams running against stacked boxes only 20% of the time. Given Dillon’s massive frame, his penchant for stiff arms, and his ability to break tackles and find space against stacked boxes, he seems like the ideal candidate for a massive workload in the coming seasons. He is the exact running back type that the Packers want to pound the rock during the winter months at the Frozen Tundra.
Regardless of who the Packers keep around between Jones or Williams, I expect Dillon to see a ton of work. Including, and especially, around the goal-line. If I can pretend to be Miss Cleo for a moment, it would make sense that the Packers allow Aaron Jones to walk, as he will likely demand top-five running back money. This would leave AJ Dillon with the Jones-type workload while still keeping Williams, or a different back, as the receiving and change of pace.
One of the knocks on AJ Dillon was his lack of pass-catching throughout his college career. He caught about one pass per game in his Junior season. He likely doesn’t project to be too much of a pass catcher at the next level. However, we have seen running backs like Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs and others perform at a top-five level without having that large of a pass-catching element in their game. All of that said, after drafting AJ Dillon, the Packers brass and scouts gave interviews touting his ability to catch the ball. They stated that it was a hidden part of his game. They mentioned that he did not get the opportunity to showcase his ball-catching skills in the Boston College offensive system. If the 247-pound, 4.53 speed running back can add a pass-catching ability to his game, look out!
The Packers ran the ball around 42% of the time in the 2019 season. But again, having not drafted any additional receiving help, and using high draft capital on AJ Dillon and projected H-Back Josiah Deguara, the Packers are primed to see that number increase. Neither of the 2019 running backs was one of “Matt LaFleur’s guys,” meaning he wasn’t in Green Bay when they were drafted. Clearly LaFleur is planting his flag. I would be shocked if their second-round draft pick did not get every opportunity in the coming years to prove why he was taken that early.
Give me AJ Dillon all day to be one of the top six running backs from this class. And that may be conservative.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
I believe the conversation here is between the third tier of running backs. From Ke’Shawn Vaughn to Lynn Bodwen. Dillon finds himself stuffed in between those guys along, with Antonio Gibson.
Along with some of the reasons @DFF_Ztrain lays out for why AJ Dillon should be considered at the top of this tier, Dillon has proven that he can be trusted as a workhorse. He rushed for almost 1,600-yards as a true freshman. He maintained that workload throughout his career, proving to be very durable. With his 6’1” and 247-pound frame, Dillon is the Packers optimal red zone back starting day 1. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams saw a total of 84 red zone touches last season. If Zach is correct, and Dillon has an untapped ability in the receiving game, Dillon could see the lion share of those touches.
However, I think it is optimistic to believe that the Packers do not pay Jones to stay in Green Bay. We can look at the cases of other running backs under the age of 26 who have had contract questions. Christian McCaffrey has signed the largest running back contract ever this offseason. Derrick Henry signed the franchise tag this year. Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake also signed contracts to remain with their team. Last season Ezekiel Elliott signed the previous record-breaking deal to stay in Dallas. In the past couple of years, Melvin Gordon was the only starting running back under the age of 27, with no underlying off-field issues, whose team allowed him to hit free agency. Also, Todd Gurley was cut because the Rams seriously mismanaged their cap.
If Jones returns and is paid accordingly, Dillon will be relegated to the Jamaal Williams workload. Although he should see an increased goal line and red zone exposure. Williams has averaged only seven carries per game in the last two seasons. Therefore, Dillon would likely have a ceiling of ten carries per game. Dillon is certainly a superior athlete to Williams. So, we can expect he would be slightly more efficient on a per-carry basis. With Jones as the definite RB1 in Green Bay for 2020, and likely for the future, it is too difficult to predict a breakout season for Dillon.
Conclusion
Dillon will not be moving up the rankings for the time being. However, he can still surpass Ke’Shawn Vaughn once I reexamine his profile and opportunity outlook.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join me and @ff_spaceman for Rookie Round Table Part 6: Bryan Edwards.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor, Part 2: Henry Ruggs III, Part 3: Tee Higgins, Part 4: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
