After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is Part 7 of the series, where @DFF_Karp and I discuss rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden, overall rank 24, WR12
@DFF_Karp on why AGG is ranked too high:
I don’t have anything against Gandy-Golden as a prospect, but I can’t endorse ranking him this high in rookie rankings. His fourth-round draft capital and weak landing spot on the Redskins don’t intrigue me whatsoever in dynasty. The Redskins also have Dwayne Haskins as their quarterback, who was horrible in 2019. I don’t have any faith that Haskins will improve in 2020, as he’s my least favorite current starter in the entire NFL.
As for competition on the depth chart, Gandy-Golden will not beat Terry McLaurin for the top spot. McLaurin is far more talented, has superior draft capital, and had an excellent rookie year, with 58 receptions for 919 yards. Also, the Redskins have both Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon on the roster, each of whom flashed in 2019. In a shortened offseason, I believe Gandy-Golden will find himself behind these receivers, at least at first.
Therefore, I think Gandy-Golden is a prime candidate to lose value in 2020. Heis not a player I would select in rookie drafts, especially not at this price. Gandy-Golden comes in as my 32nd-ranked rookie in 1QB dynasty formats. I prefer receivers like Van Jefferson and Chase Claypool. As well as running backs Zack Moss, Joshua Kelley, and Darrynton Evans. Each of those players comes in behind Gandy-Golden in Dynasty Diagnostic’s rankings but is higher in mine. I think he is a landmine that fantasy owners should avoid and thank me later.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
Antonio Gandy-Golden is one of “my guys” in this draft class. So, I am by nature higher on him than the consensus. I might be amongst the highest on him in the fantasy community! Based on my analysis on Burrow and Tagovailoa in Part 4 of this series, I will actually be moving Justin Herbert ahead of AGG in my rankings, bringing him to the 3.01 slot. Over the past three years, when looking at DFF rookie rankings slotted in the third round (ranked 25-36), only 33% of those players have hit. When we include the fourth-rounders into the equation, the hit rate drops in half again, to 18%.
I have AGG atop the third round of rankings because I believe he is the most likely dart throw to hit. Also included in this data are all quarterbacks who gained starter status in that time period. I believe everyone would take Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson over every 2020 rookie, even in a one quarterback league. Removing the four quarterbacks (including Drew Lock and Josh Allen) from both the numerator and denominator, the late-round hit rate drops to 13%.
AGG has been the model of consistency at Liberty, posting three consecutive 1,000-yard and 10 TD seasons. Although, you can argue that the lack of competition played a roll in this. The Redskins’ other options at wide receiver outside of McLaurin are despicable at best. While AGG was a day three pick — which has a very low success rate — I would not argue that Kelvin Harmon’s compensatory 6th-round pick, or Steven Sims‘ undrafted stock, will keep the Redskins from giving AGG early opportunities. Especially when weighting in draft capital, athletic profile, and college production — all of which favor AGG.
While Dwayne Haskins is not a top tier quarterback yet, we have to consider that his best options were lackluster in 2019. 2019 was a season in which head coach Jay Gruden openly did not want to draft Haskins, let alone give him practice reps. Haskins now has played only a season and a half combined at the collegiate and professional level. So, he definitely has room to develop into an above-average pro QB. Take into account that Haskins beat out Joe Burrow for the Ohio State job in 2018. After that, the Redskins chose to pass on Tua Tagovailoa with the second overall pick in this 2020 NFL Draft. Although the fantasy community doesn’t see Haskins highly, the Redskins clearly do.
With all of this, what really blew me away about AGG is he that was the only receiver to record a faster in-game max speed than Jalen Reagor in college. AGG recorded a max speed of 23.3 MPH. Although he doesn’t show off great straight-line speed in the Underwear Olympics, this is a clear indicator that he has the game speed to compete at the next level. This is not to say that he will replace McLaurin as the Redskins deep threat. Rather, that he will act as the move-the-chains receiver that perfectly compliments McLaurin’s speed and quickness.
Conclusion
While Lynn Bowden is my favorite dart target for the third round, after he is gone — and assuming Hamler and Edwards are off the board — there are no options that are making me hesitate from smashing the button on AGG. He does move down one spot overall to Justin Herbert, though.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join me and @DFF_Karp for Rookie Round Table Part 8: Zack Moss.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor, Part 2: Henry Ruggs III, Part 3: Tee Higgins, Part 4: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Part 5: AJ Dillon, Part 6: Bryan Edwards
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
