After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is the final part of the series, where we’ll look at more insights and tidbits about these rookies.
Rookie Final Thoughts — More Insights From DFF Analysts
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1: Additional tidbits that I found in further rookie research.
Tyler Johnson’s 2018 was in the 99th percentile of dominator rating, yards per team attempt, and TD per team attempt. This is good for a top ten finish among power five receivers since 2000.
CeeDee Lamb’s 2019 figure was 99th percentile in yards per team attempt and TD per team attempt, his dominator rating was in the 91st percentile.
Rashod Bateman and Tutu Atwell both performed better than CeeDee Lamb. Therefore, they will likely be in the 2021 draft.
Ja’Marr Chase was not far behind overall in the 98th percentile when combining these three stats.
A full list of players in the top 90th percentile in the last few years and also drafted in the top 100, including those very likely to be drafted that high next year. In other words, this leads to potential buy-low candidates. Therefore, you can use this chart to decide if you should reach for a rookie WR this year or hold off until next year:
| Name | API Percentile | Draft Pick | Draft Class |
| Rashod Bateman | 99.20% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| Chatarius Atwell | 99.20% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| D.J. Moore | 99.00% | 24 | 2018 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 98.10% | 17 | 2020 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 97.90% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | 97.60% | 57 | 2019 |
| John Ross | 97.50% | 9 | 2017 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 97.30% | 25 | 2020 |
| Tylan Wallace | 97.10% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| N’Keal Harry | 96.90% | 32 | 2019 |
| A.J. Brown | 96.80% | 51 | 2019 |
| Jalen Reagor | 96.70% | 21 | 2020 |
| James Washington | 96.50% | 60 | 2018 |
| Denzel Mims | 96.40% | 59 | 2020 |
| Devonta Smith | 95.70% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| Rondale Moore | 95.60% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| Chris Godwin | 95.10% | 84 | 2017 |
| Tee Higgins | 94.90% | 33 | 2020 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 94.50% | 34 | 2020 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 94.30% | 15 | 2020 |
| Sage Surratt | 94.20% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| KJ Hamler | 93.90% | 46 | 2020 |
| Tamorrion Terry | 93.50% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| Seth Williams | 93.30% | Likely Top 100 | 2021 |
| Justin Jefferson | 93.10% | 22 | 2020 |
| Marquise Brown | 93.00% | 25 | 2019 |
| Christian Kirk | 92.80% | 47 | 2018 |
| Devin Duvernay | 92.80% | 92 | 2020 |
| Lynn Bowden Jr. | 92.10% | 80 | 2020 |
| Dante Pettis | 90.80% | 44 | 2018 |
| Jace Sternberger | 90.40% | 75 | 2019 |
| Deebo Samuel | 90.30% | 36 | 2019 |
@ff_spaceman’s tidbits on Bryan Edwards versus other players drafted in his range:
Ke’Shawn Vaughn: A middling college profile and draft capital for an older running back prospect being propped up by his landing spot. I’m not even a Ronald Jones stan but Jones had a better college profile, landing spot, and athleticism.
Joe Burrow: Rookie QBs make me yawn in 1QB dynasty.
Tua: Rinse and repeat my thoughts on Joe Burrow.
Michael Pittman: Pittman has the best argument for being over Edwards. However, I like Edward’s age-adjusted college production more than Pittman. This slightly wins over Pittman’s superior draft capital and comparable landing spot.
Denzel Mims: Great athleticism. But, it is overvalued when evaluating wide receiver prospects. Edwards has superior age-adjusted college production. Mims’ later breakout age, while fine, still gives me pause for concern. If Mims is so good, why did he take a back seat behind Jalen Hurd in 2018? Also, Adam Gase is the Fantasy Succubus. He destroys everything that is good in this world. Therefore, I prefer Edwards’ better overall profile to Mims’ athleticism, slightly better draft capital, and lack of target competition in NY.
Antonio Gibson: Did he even see 100 touches in NCAA Division I football? Very muddy RB room in WAS. It is right up there with the NYJ for being a terrible organization (even though I like Ron Rivera as a coach). While I hear the David Johnson arguments, David Johnson actually was a workhorse in college. Unlike Gibson and Memphis hasn’t had promising RB returns at the NFL level so far.
AJ Dillon: As a non-tape watcher, people need to watch AJ Dillon’s tape and Derrick Henry’s tape before they even think about making that comparison. Dillon isn’t even in the same universe as Derrick Henry, let alone a good rookie comp. Yes, Dillon has good draft capital and a great size-adjusted speed score. But, that’s if I’m doing Miss Cleo impressions when predicting Aaron Jones’ contract situation. I have zero faith in the GBP and Matt Lafluer after their 2020 draft. Plus, I still haven’t forgiven Matt Lafluer for killing Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis. Back to AJ Dillon, he’s Andrew Williams reincarnated.
Laviska Shenault: Another player I can understand why you would have over Edwards. Edwards has slightly better age-adjusted college production and similar QB play. Shenault has better draft capital. But, Shenault has much more competition for targets and that is the deciding factor for me.
Brandon Aiyuk: Better draft capital. But, he has his ceiling capped by the QB play (even though I like Jimmy G better than Carr, I’d rather have Carr’s first or second option compared to Jimmy G’s 3rd option in that offensive scheme and team situation), SF offensive scheme, and the quality of SF defense. In other words, Brandon Aiyuik is a late breakout wide receiver in a capped NFL landing spot. Therefore, I’d rather have Edwards’ age-adjusted production, draft capital, and landing spot rather than Aiyuk’s profile.
Lynn Bowden: Loved him as a hybrid player pre-draft. But, landing behind Josh Jacobs and listed as a running back makes me think his touches are capped. I’ll take Edwards over that every time.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor, Part 2: Henry Ruggs III, Part 3: Tee Higgins, Part 4: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Part 5: AJ Dillon, Part 6: Bryan Edwards, Part 7: Antonio Gandy-Golden, Part 8: Zack Moss, and Part 9: Joshua Kelley
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
