Sleeper Series: Allen Lazard

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the page. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!

I want to take a quick look at Allen Lazard. He’s someone that I haven’t discussed much this offseason, but I see him as a sleeper in deep leagues. Most of the sleepers I’ve considered so far are significantly higher in my rankings, but I wanted to put something out there a little more down the ranks.

Past Production

Here are Lazard’s full NFL stats.

Lazard’s pure production numbers don’t tell the full story. He was a decent prospect from Iowa State who had some hype entering the 2018 NFL Draft, especially in the dynasty community. Unfortunately, he went undrafted and landed on the Jaguars as an undrafted free agent.

Lazard never made it on the Jaguars, but the Packers eventually signed him to their active roster. Lazard played one game late in 2018, but he wasn’t a relevant receiver on the Packers or for fantasy owners. Even throughout the 2019 offseason, fantasy gamers focused on Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison as the contenders for the #2 wide receiver behind Davante Adams.

Honestly, Lazard wasn’t even in the conversation for snaps on the Packers. Equanimeous St. Brown, Jake Kumerow, and J’Mon Moore were all ahead of him on the depth chart, so Lazard wasn’t expected to make the team. Lazard didn’t make the initial 53-man roster, but due to injuries, he eventually found his way onto the Packers’ Week 1 squad.

From Week 1 to Week 5, Lazard recorded no offensive stats and was primarily a special-teams player. He took a snap or two at wide receiver from time to time, but he barely saw any time there. However, in Week 6, Lazard began to see targets, and he caught four of five targets for 65 yards and a touchdown.

From that point forward, Lazard became a starter for the Packers, playing well more than half the snaps throughout the remainder of the season. Over the final 10 games, Lazard totaled 31 receptions on 47 targets for 412 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 8.6 PPR points/game and was 54th among wide receivers during that span. While he wasn’t particularly relevant for fantasy owners, Lazard at least demonstrated that he had a role for the Packers’ offense.

The Prevailing Narrative

The narrative surrounding Lazard is pretty straightforward. Most fantasy owners don’t know who he is. He went undrafted in the NFL Draft, and he didn’t produce anything as a rookie. Even when he did get on the field, he probably didn’t make it into most fantasy owners’ lineups. Therefore, I guarantee that some redraft owners in more casual leagues don’t even know Lazard’s name.

In the past, Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers has supported multiple fantasy receivers. But, he hasn’t done that recently. Fantasy owners who chased Rodgers’ WR2 lost out in both 2018 and 2019, as nobody emerged behind Davante Adams. The Packers continued to funnel targets to an ineffective Jimmy Graham, and they split the remainder among the rest of the receivers. Rodgers missed multiple games in 2017 with injuries, so it’s been four years since the Packers had multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers.

Therefore, I think most fantasy players are tired of dealing with the Packers’ offense. In 2019, new head coach Matt LaFleur took a more run-heavy approach, limiting Rodgers’ pass attempts. The Packers then drafted AJ Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft and spent their third-rounder on a fullback hybrid in Josiah Deguara. They also failed to acquire any receiver depth in a loaded draft class, and they didn’t sign any significant free agents. The Packers will be a run-heavy offense in 2020, both according to public opinion and my views.

2020 Outlook

In 2020, the Packers have few receiving weapons. Adams is the clear star receiver, who will command a massive target share. The Packers signed Devin Funchess in free agency, but Funchess recently opted out of the 2020 season. 

In my Packers’ redraft breakdown, I implied that there was room for one of Lazard, Funchess, or second-year tight end Jace Sternberger to make a fantasy impact in 2020. Since three options were competing for one fantasy-relevant role, I felt no need to invest in a second-pass catcher from the Packers. However, with Funchess gone, I believe that Lazard will be a definite starter in all sets as the Packers’ #2 WR.

While I had already projected that outcome before Funchess opted out, it helps to be sure. The added clarity has boosted Lazard to my WR58 and 138th overall player. According to FantasyPros consensus PPR ADP, Lazard comes in as the WR66 and 180th overall. Therefore, I see Lazard as a value that I can grab with one of my final picks.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

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