Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: San Francisco 49ers

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). I don’t know if we’ve seen a crazier free agency than the one we are currently witnessing! We as Dynasty Managers need to be evaluating the off-season transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the San Francisco 49ers.

STOCK UP – BRANDON AIYUK

Some of you dynasty managers out there are down on Aiyuk after witnessing what Deebo Samuel did this past season. I don’t blame you for that one bit. But you can’t deny that Aiyuk shows flashes of WR1 traits at times. We saw this when Samuel missed extended time during Aiyuk’s rookie season. In six games played without Samuel during the 2020 season, Aiyuk hauled in 32 of his 50 targets for 345 yards and three touchdowns. Many were expecting him to carry this production rate into his sophomore season. But in five more games played than in 2020, Aiyuk saw 12 fewer targets and hauled in four fewer receptions in 2021. That’s because we saw a full season with a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo, a healthy offensive line, and a healthy defense (for the most part). George Kittle also played in more games than he did in 2020, and of course, Samuel was on the field for nearly every game. The team was healthier, and that’s the sole reason why Aiyuk’s numbers dipped in 2021. 

So why should we feel better about him going into 2022 and beyond? As I mentioned above, he struggled during the 2021 season, but he quietly found his groove as the team’s WR2 and the third option on the team midway through the season. After starting the first six weeks with only nine receptions for 96 yards and one touchdown, we all panicked. But in Weeks 7-18, he ended up producing a combined 47 receptions for 730 yards and four touchdowns. During that same span, he averaged 15.5 yards per reception and he served as the WR20 in PPR leagues. Think about that for a second. San Francisco is a team that would rather run the ball 75 percent of the time. Jimmy G is your signal-caller, Samuel finished as the WR3, George Kittle finished as the TE4, and Aiyuk was still able to do what he did? That’s incredible. 

We have to think about the future as dynasty managers. Considering both Samuel and Kittle have a track record of injuries on their resume, it’s safe to say that Aiyuk will likely produce more WR1-like games. Is he going to surpass Samuel as the team’s WR1 at some point? Probably not. Could he turn into the number two option on this team? Absolutely. He’s only 24 years old, and he’s shown the star power he can bring with ample amounts of opportunities. The league is shifting more into a passing league, and it’s only a matter of time until Kyle Shanahan shifts his playcalling that way as well. You can rely on Aiyuk’s talents and expect offensive changes in San Francisco at some point. And that might come when Garoppolo leaves the building and Trey lance takes over signal-caller duties.  

Other Notables: Elijah Mitchell, Trey Lance

STOCK DOWN – TREY SERMON

What a major disappointment. There was a ton of hype surrounding Sermon going into the 2021 season. Fantasy analysts advised fantasy managers to grab him in the mid-to-late rounds in startups because of what he could bring later in the season. “Jeff Wilson is hurt, Raheem Mostert is injury-prone, Sermon will take over as the team’s RB1.” Blah blah blah…The fantasy football world thought too highly of him and overlooked Elijah Mitchell BIG TIME! Sure, Mitchell was the surprise running back that broke out last year as a rookie. He’s not the rookie back many expected to break out for this team. But Sermon had his chances, and he couldn’t take advantage of them. 

The fantasy world was right, Mostert ended up suffering a season-ending injury early in the season. Mitchell came in and took over RB1 duties, but Sermon didn’t even serve as his backup in Week 2. In fact, he was only granted one touch the entire day. Then of course Mitchell suffers an injury of his own. Now it’s time. Everyone was waiting for this to happen, and maybe this was happening a little earlier than when we expected. Mostert, Mitchell, and JaMycal Hasty were all inactive in Week 3. In a 28-30 shootout against Green Bay, Sermon turned in 10 carries for 31 yards and one touchdown. This performance wasn’t sexy by any means, but all the thoughts were that he was going to see a larger workload in Week 4 with Mitchell out once again. We got exactly that. In Week 4 against Seattle, Sermon turned in 19 carries for 89 yards. But when Mitchell came back in Week 5, he only received a single touch once again. After the Week 6 bye, Sermon dressed in Weeks 7 and 8, but he didn’t receive a single touch. We’re all thinking what is going on? Well, it came out that he was performing very poorly in practice, and he only played in one more game the entire season. The combination of Mitchell’s breakout, Wilson coming back to the field healthy, and Sermon’s poor play in practice led to Shanahan placing the rookie back in the doghouse. 

Sermon isn’t in the “stock down” section because he’s going to see a decreased role during his second season. He’s in this section because we need to realize that his stock isn’t rising. Mitchell is clearly the team’s RB1, and he’s on a cheaper rookie contract than Sermon is on. Both Wilson and Hasty are still on the team, and as I mentioned above, don’t be surprised if the 49ers tend to pass the ball a little more in 2021. In redraft, there’s no point in drafting him, and in dynasty, I’m looking for the biggest Sermon fan out there and offering him a deal. Someone is going to bite. You’re probably not going to receive much in return, but you could get something for him. 

Other Notables: Jeff Wilson, Jauan Jennings

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons

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