Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young.
Background
Bryce Young was a three-year player and two-year starter at Alabama. Bryce was able to amass 8,200 yards and 79 passing touchdowns as a starter. He is currently 21 years old and figures to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft. Young went 24-4 as a starter, dominating in both the stat sheet and the win column. One of Bryce’s biggest red flags will be his size. He currently is reported to be six feet tall, but these college numbers are hard to trust. I will be waiting to see what The Combine says as those are official measurements without bias. In addition, I do not penalize QBs for height. We have seen multiple players deemed “too short” to succeed in the league go on to have great careers. Guys like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson have made potential Hall of Fame careers in football. While other players like Kyler Murray have started hot even with a smaller stature. Even if you are short, being able to thrive at a school like Alabama tells me you were able to overcome that potential obstacle.
Analytic Profile
There are five big stats I look at when prospecting QBs: best season (BS) yards per attempt (YPA), BS completion percentage (comp%), college career TD rate (TDR), college career passer rating (PR), and BS rush yards per game (RY/G). I tested all of these stats vs all QBs drafted since 2012 and their NFL fantasy points scored to determine not only which stats are most impactful but also which values lead to elite fantasy producers.
First up is BS YPA which is the least impactful of the stats I look at but important nonetheless. Young achieved a mark of 8.9 in 2021, and this ranks just at my elite threshold of 8.9. Therefore it still counts as a hit and we can move on to the next metric. Next, Young had a BS Comp% of 66.9% also in his 2021 season. This barely beats my elite mark of 66.5%, but that is still great. These thresholds are just made to be on average minimums for potentially elite fantasy production. Clearing them at all or matching them is all that matters. Comp% is one step above YPA and is the next most important stat I look at, Young hits both of these.
The next most predictive stat I use is career PR. Bryce earned a mark of 162.4 over his career, which easily passes my elite mark of 150. That is three out of three hits for Young if you are counting. The next stat in terms of importance is BS RY/G, here is where Young misses the mark as he only averaged a measly 7.5, while my elite mark wants to see 30+. I do think Young has the upside to scramble when necessary, but he is not on the level of rushing QBs that more easily bring elite fantasy seasons. Even guys like Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Trevor Lawrence were able to clear 30 rush yards per game. Lastly, the most impactful metric I use seems to be career TDR. Young had a mark of 8.1 in college which easily passes the mark I have set of 6.7. So, Bryce hits four of the five thresholds and looks like a good prospect for fantasy. He is currently a tier-two prospect in my model but, draft capital will bump him up into tier-one.
Analytical Comps
Here is a short list of players who had a similar pre-draft score in my model to Bryce Young: Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, and Teddy Bridgewater.
Here is an image showcasing more direct analytical comps in my database to Young:
Note: Keep in mind these do not include draft capital and Young will be a Top-5 pick in April.
I currently have Young in my loose first tier of rookie QBs at either QB1 or QB2 of the class, along with guys like Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud. As I dig deeper into Young and the other prospects my ranking will solidify. But for now, I imagine he will be a mid to early first-round pick in Superflex rookie drafts.
Previous Articles in this Series:
2023 Rookie QB Analytics: Stetson Bennett
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
