Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through my first rookie, Stetson Bennett.
Background
Stetson Bennett was a four-year player and two-year starter at Georgia. He went 29-1 as a starter and won two National Championships back to back. You might think a player of such a winning pedigree would be an easy 1.01 for your fantasy league rookie drafts, but there is more to these players than this. One of Bennett’s main knocks is the fact that he is already 25 years old, before even being drafted. This makes him older than four of the QBs starting in the NFL playoffs this season. This is used to say things like “of course Bennett was good, he is an adult playing against kids”. I do not subscribe to this. I think Bennett played against the opponents he was given and crushed them, consistently even winning the most recent championship 65-7. It would be one thing if he were older and playing poorly or losing. But, he was older, playing well, and dominating. The NCAA gave Bennett the best they had to offer and he won every step of the way, it was impressive.
Analytic Profile
There are five big stats I look at when prospecting QBs: best season (BS) yards per attempt (YPA), BS completion percentage (comp%), college career TD rate (TDR), college career passer rating (PR), and BS rush yards per game (RY/G). I tested all of these stats vs all QBs drafted since 2012 and their NFL fantasy points scored to determine not only which stats are most impactful but also which values lead to elite fantasy producers.
First up is BS YPA which is the least impactful of the stats I look at but important nonetheless. Stetson achieved a mark of 10.0 in 2021, and this ranks above my elite threshold of 8.9. Next, Bennett had a BS Comp% of 68.1% in his 2022 season. This firmly beats my elite mark of 66.5%. Comp% is one step above YPA and is the next most important stat I look at, Stetson clears both of them. The next most predictive stat I use is career PR. Bennett earned a mark of 160.7 over his career, which easily passes my elite mark of 150. That is three out of three for Bennett if you are counting. The next stat in terms of importance is BS RY/G, here is where Bennett falters as he only averaged 18.5, while my elite mark wants to see 30+. Lastly, the most impactful metric I use seems to be career TDR. Bennet had a mark of 7.1 in college which is good enough to clear the mark I have set of 6.7. So, Stetson hits four of the five thresholds and looks like a solid but not great prospect for fantasy. His draft capital could certainly bump him up but for now, my model has him as a tier-two prospect.
Analytical Comps
Here is a short list of players who had a similar pre-draft score in my model to Bennet: Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm, and Dwayne Haskins.
Here is an image showcasing more direct analytical comps in my database to Bennett:
I currently have Stetson as my loose second tier of rookie QBs at either QB3 or QB4 of the class. Along with guys like Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker. As I dig deeper into Bennett and the other prospects my ranking will solidify. But for now, I imagine he will be a late first to a mid-second-round player in Superflex rookie drafts.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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