With the preseason just one short week away, it’s almost time to see these rookies take the field and prove their value. One subject of debate is which rookie wide receiver will emerge as the top producer in Year 1. In the dynasty community, the overwhelming consensus is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear rookie WR1. But for Redraft, BestBall, or even Dynasty owners putting all their chips in for 2023, who should we bet on as the top producer in Year 1? I’m here to break down some numbers and answer that question.
Underdog ADP
Underdog ADP has the sharpest BestBall ADP, as competitors are playing for considerable money. You rarely find casual players in these drafts until August rolls around, at which point the sharps have appropriately set the ADP anyways. Let’s look at the top-8 rookie WRs according to Underdog ADP and their corresponding WR rank overall.
After the first four WRs, which all happened to be first-round draft picks, there is a significant drop-off in ADP. So more than likely, the serious contenders for rookie WR1 overall in 2023 will be JSN, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers. However, we also have a couple of dark horse options here, which I’ll discuss briefly later.
One thing to remember: Underdog is a BestBall format, which is more concerned with ceiling outcomes than floors or median outcomes. So while this is a valuable tool to project Year 1 production, it doesn’t give us the complete picture.
Underdog Lines
Underdog has released several player lines for the 2023 season, and I wanted to see how these compared to the ADP of each player. Regarding rookie wide receivers, the available lines to bet on were limited, but they released some for the top 4 projected.
So while JSN is going nearly 11 spots ahead of Addison in Underdog drafts, Addison is projected to have superior numbers in 2023. Again, this is likely due to the floor vs. ceiling projections. Addison is walking in as the clear WR2 for Minnesota this season, while JSN has to compete for targets with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But JSN had the superior college profile and has clear WR1 upside, while Addison’s ceiling is capped to a point with Justin Jefferson as his teammate, not to mention T.J. Hockenson will demand his fair share of targets. There’s a world where JSN emerges as the top target in Seattle as a rookie; this simply isn’t in the cards for Addison.
Sleeper Projections
I also grabbed projected fantasy points for 2023 in PPR formats from Sleeper. Here are the top 6 rookie WRs according to those projections:
- Jordan Addison – 193.6 points
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 179.1 points
- Quentin Johnston – 176.2 points
- Zay Flowers – 163.2 points
- Rashee Rice – 157.6 points
- Jonathan Mingo – 142.5 points
Looking at these numbers, Sleeper is in line with Underdog ADP regarding 2023 projections for the wide receivers. The case for Addison consistently being on top is understandable, as he has the fewest question marks regarding his status on the depth chart.
My Dark Horse Pick
Marvin Mims is a name we should see rising quickly in Underdog drafts, so take advantage of the 150+ ADP while you can! Recent news is that Tim Patrick will miss his second consecutive season due to a torn achilles. Patrick was set to potentially occupy the slot role in 2023, which Mims played somewhat frequently in college. On top of this, KJ Hamler was released by the Broncos due to a heart condition. Reports are saying there’s a chance Hamler could return in six weeks, but even if that’s the case, I find it highly unlikely he’d make an immediate impact. He won’t be in proper football shape to see any significant snap share. These unfortunate circumstances have allowed Mims to be the solidified WR3 in this Sean Payton-led offense.
I think there’s a real chance Mims jumps Courtland Sutton on the totem pole in 2023 and is the WR2 behind Jerry Jeudy in this offense. Sutton will be 28 this season and has managed to disappoint every year after his 2019 breakout. On the other hand, Marvin Mims is just 21 years old and a 2nd-round draft pick. He had an excellent college profile, ranking as the WR4 in this rookie class according to Chris Museezer’s WR1 Rookie Model. If you’d like to know how these rankings were generated, I highly suggest checking out that article here. I don’t know how realistic it would be for Mims to emerge as the rookie WR1 overall, but his current value is one of my favorites.
Conclusion
My pick for the top rookie WR producer in 2023 is Jordan Addison. I believe he has the safest floor and will be an every-down player come Week 1. Some may be shying away from selecting Addison after the news of his reckless driving incident, but there’s very little chance it will result in any suspension for Addison during the season. Nobody was hurt, he was not arrested, and he has publicly apologized, stating he was speeding due to a medical emergency for his dog.
I like the value of Addison at the 6-7 turn of Underdog drafts much more than JSN at the 5-6 turn. 2023 projections suggest Addison should outscore JSN, although I understand JSN going earlier in BestBall since he’s more of the “homerun” pick. I would be even more comfortable grabbing Addison over JSN in your regular Redraft format. Now in dynasty, I would prefer to have JSN even as a serious contender. The projected point discrepancy in Year 1 is not enough to forfeit rostering what could be a generational talent in JSN. As mentioned, he has a clear path to being a top 10 dynasty WR and a round 2 startup pick, whereas that is outside Addison’s range of outcomes. Ultimately, if I want to push all in for 2023, I would look to sell either of these guys for cheap win-now production plus extra. An example could be selling JSN + a 2024 2nd for Davante Adams + a 2024 1st. You get the cheaper points now and another dice roll in 2024.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
