With another NFL Draft in the books, the final piece of the puzzle is now cemented for the final WR1 analytical model grades. We certainly saw a few surprise names early, “Hello, Jonathan Mingo!” and a few names that fell like once heralded five-star prospect Kayshon Boutte. Draft capital is a significant input into the model so we did see some realignment of the names in the re-draft WR1 model top-15 as well as a couple of new entrants.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future Dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here.
Before we get into the 2023 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value. As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. 17 of the top 20 prospect scores have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy PPG season. 14 of those 20 have had a top 12 fantasy PPG season
With that let’s go ahead and dive into the 2023 class.
15) Andrei Iosivas, Princeton
The Good
Iosivas is an under-the-radar prospect but certainly became more renowned after his Combine performance. Iosivas scored an incredible 9.95 (out of 10). His measurables included a 4.43 40-yard dash showing superior long speed for a player 6’3 inches tall. Combine this with a vertical of 39 inches and you have the makings of a contested catch marvel. His agility was also outstanding for a player of his size. He posted a 20-yard shuttle time of 4.12 and three-cone of 6.85.
He did show he was more than just an uber-athlete while at Princeton. He posted an impressive 2.70 receiving yards per team pass attempt per game (RYPTPAPG). His weighted dominator was also excellent at 40.8%, good for third overall in this class.
The Bad
Iosivas had a career PPR Fantasy point per game average of 14.7. To overcome his two big red flags (in the ugly section), you wanted to see this mark be higher. This ranked 13th in the class overall.
The Ugly
Iosivas has two big red flags. A huge one is his sixth-round draft capital. Round 6 wide receivers have a very low hit rate. The hit rate drops precipitously once you reach Round 4 but of course, there are gems to be had there such as Amon-Ra St. Brown. He will need to flash in practice and training camp to be given an opportunity to play on Sundays.
This is partially baked into his draft capital but another big red flag for Iosivas is his low level of competition. He comes from the Ivy League, played FCS-level cornerbacks, and did not have to compete for targets against top-end talent.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Andrei Iosivas’s score of -3 gives him a 28.4% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career
14) Michael Wilson, Stanford
The Good
Michael Wilson is this draft’s mystery box. He averaged only five games played in his last three seasons in college after a career beset by injuries. The nature of the injuries was more chance (Jones fracture and broken collarbone) than anything chronic so it’s unlikely this continues to haunt him in the NFL.
Before his college career was derailed by injuries, Wilson had one of the more impressive sophomore years in this group of prospects. He achieved a second-year weighted dominator breakout after reeling in 56 catches for 672 yards and five touchdowns. This added 4 points to his overall WR1 model score.
Wilson impressed at the Combine posting a 9.55 Relative Athletic Score. He has good size at 6’2″ 213 lbs. His 4.59 40-time wasn’t great but he showed excellent burst with a 1.53 10-yard split. His superb agility was also on display with an elite 6.81 three-cone time.
The Bad
Wilson’s biggest issue is he just couldn’t stay healthy long enough to give us a viable sample size of production to properly evaluate him. The Cardinals needed some size in their wide receiver core and they got it with Wilson. Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch are each 5’9” or shorter so Wilson gives them an element they sorely needed for when Hopkins moves on.
The Ugly
Wilson’s production numbers are modest but we do have to consider much of his production came when he was far younger than the other prospects in this class. His college career fantasy points per game were only 10.7. This ranked 22nd among the wide receivers drafted this year. His best season receiving yards per team pass attempt per game was only 2.06 which came from his six-game senior year. These marks subtracted five points from his overall WR1 model score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Michael Wilson’s score of 4 gives him a 28.4% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
13) Tyler Scott, Cincinnati
The Good
Lance Zeirlein is a legend in the prospect film sphere. The release of his annual film grades is like Christmas for data analysts such as myself. His accuracy is why I utilize his grades in my model. Scott shines in his film grade for Zeirlein with a 6.35. Zeirlein writes, “Scott is very fluid and athletic in his movements. Able to accelerate to top speed very quickly. Former high school running back with excellent run-after-catch talent. Offers dynamic versatility due to his skill set.”
The Bad
You need to be a little careful with the RYPTPA metric. What most analysts use is the prospect’s receiving yards for the season divided by the team’s passing attempts for the season. However, this can be deceiving when a player misses games. For this reason, I use RYPTPAPG which only counts the games that the prospect was active in. Tyler Scott missed three games last year so his RYPTPAPG is not so bad at 2.62 (vs 2.17). However, his breakout year being his junior season is not what we want to see. Most of the top prospects have already achieved breakout status by their freshman or sophomore season. Scott lost a point toward his overall score for a breakout year.
The Ugly
Scott’s 10.6 college career fantasy points per game are quite bad. This ranks outside of the top 20 prospects in the class. He is in that range of drafts where I would rather invest in running-back depth pieces who could contribute to a roster due to attrition at that position. After all, this is the direct metric that we want to be productive for our fantasy teams.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Tyler Scott’s score of 5 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
12) Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
The Good
The Tennessee tandem of Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman was selected with back-to-back picks in the third round of the NFL draft. It was Tillman who had an excellent junior season for the Volunteers with 1,081 yards receiving while Hyatt only had 226 yards. This led to an outstanding Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt mark of 3.14 good for fourth overall in this class. RYPTPA is one of the bigger contributors to the overall WR1 score and this mark added 10 points to Tillman’s final grade.
The Bad
Ideally, we want to see our prospects achieve a 20% weighted dominator breakout in their freshman or sophomore years of college. Tillman did not break out until he was a junior. This deducted one point from his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
In hindsight, Tillman likely wishes he had declared for the draft after his junior season. Injuries left Tillman with weak production in his senior year. He may have been a second-rounder if he declared last year. Tillman had 5 points deducted from his overall WR1 score because he did not declare early for the NFL draft.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Cedric Tillman’s score of 9 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
11) Jonathan Mingo, Ole’ Miss
The Good
When the Carolina Panthers selected Jonathan Mingo 39th overall (fifth wide receiver)l it was easily the most surprising pick of the draft for me. After all his four years at Ole Miss can best be summed up by the word “meh”. Alas, we need to honor the selection and award Mingo his five points as a second-round selection in the WR1 model.
If we scour deep into his profile, it is clear why the Panthers selected him. This class was really lacking in wide receivers with a combination of size and speed. Mingo excelled here. His 9.87 Relative Athletic Score ranked second among all drafted prospects. Only Andrei Iosivas had a higher RAS score than Mingo. Mingo measured in at 6’2, 220 pounds, and ran a 4.46 40-yard dash to go with an elite 1.52 10-yard split. He also posted elite strength 22 reps of 225 pounds, a vertical jump of 39.5 inches, and a broad jump of 10 feet 9 inches.
The Bad
Where should we start? As far as analytical profiles Mingo’s is simply bad. It mirrors one of an undrafted wide receiver more than it does a second-rounder. Of the 12 players with the most top-24 fantasy finishes since 2007, all of them were early declares. Early declares hit at a far higher rate than non-early declares. Mingo was not an early declare. Not only that, of the top 12 wide receivers selected in the NFL draft Mingo ranked last in RYPTPA, College career fantasy PPG and weighted dominator breakout year.
The Ugly
Mingo averaged an absolutely brutal 10.7 fantasy points per game for his college career. This ranked 22nd among wide receivers selected in the NFL draft. Remember, this is the exact metric we want our prospects to produce in the NFL. It’s rare for a prospect with such a paltry college Fantasy PPG to then go and escalate this in a significant manner in the NFL
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jonathan Mingo’s score of 9 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
10) Nathaniel Dell, Houston
The Good
One of the great things about using an analytical model to rank players is that it is completely unbiased. Otherwise, I would probably have Nathaniel Dell several spots higher than this as he is just such a fun player to watch. He wins routes with exceptional agility and precise route running. Dell posted an elite 21.1 fantasy points per game throughout his career at Houston. This ranked second in the class to Jordan Addison. His RYPTPAPG was a stellar 2.90 good for 7th overall in the class. Dell also posted a strong weighted dominator rating (% market share of team’s receiving yards and TDs) of 36.2 which finished at sixth overall among 2023 prospects.
The Bad
Ideally, we want to see a player breakout (achieve a 20% weighted dominator) in their freshman or sophomore years. Dell was a junior when he broke out. This deducted one point from his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
There is no getting around it. Dell is tiny. If Anthony Richardson is this class’s Thor, Dell is Ant-Man. But the NFL has been prioritizing talent over prototype size in recent years. Players such as Jaylen Waddle, Rondale Moore, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave are ushering in a new archetype of wide receiver that is far from the Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson’s of years past.
As the Relative Athletic Score is size adjusted it makes it impossible for a player of Dell’s height and weight to perform well in that metric. Dell’s 5.82 RAS score is one of the lowest in this wide receiver class.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Nathaniel Dell’s score of 9 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
9) Jayden Reed, Michigan St.
The Good
Jayden Reed had an accomplished college career achieving a coveted first-year breakout crossing the weighted dominator threshold of 20% in his freshman year. His college career peaked in 2021 when as a junior he had 1,026 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. This was good for 2.57 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game and gave Reed three points towards his total WR 1 score.
The Bad
Reed has sub-par athleticism which deducted one point from his WR1 score. His Relative Athletic Score is a 6.73 out of 10. His long speed was solid posting a 4.45 40-yard dash. However, this was dragged down by weak measurables in height (5’10″), weight (187 lbs.), bench press (13 reps), and vertical jump (33.5 inches).
The Ugly
Reed had a highly productive junior year so it was a surprise to see him return for his senior season. This usually means he was not going to get the needed draft capital to make it worthwhile to enter the draft. Unfortunately for Reed, his senior year was not as productive as his junior year. Reed received -5 points on his overall WR1 score for not declaring early.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jayden Reed’s score of 11 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
8) Rashee Rice, TCU
The Good
Kicking off our top-10 wide receivers is Rashee Rice. Rice landed in Kansas City in the NFL draft, so he will be on the receiving end of the best NFL QB’s passes. Rice is one of the more athletic wideouts in the class. His 9.52 Relative Athletic Score was fifth overall in this class. Rice arrived on the scene earlier than five prior prospects in the rankings with a second
Year breakout crossing the 20% weighted dominator threshold. But it was his senior year when he blew up. Rice led the Hornfrogs with a lofty 1355 yards receiving. This was good for 2.85 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt which added three points to Rice’s overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Rice achieved only a modest 15.1 fantasy points per game in his college career. Elite prospects eclipse the 20.0 FPPG threshold. Rice received a two-point deduction in this metric.
The Ugly
Rice achieved only modest success his junior year failing to build off a successful breakout sophomore year. This led to him returning for his senior year of college. Failing to declare early is a big red flag for a prospect as it usually means the NFL provided feedback they weren’t quite ready to enter the league and wouldn’t get significant draft capital. Rice lost 5 points toward his overall WR1 score due to this fact.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Rashee Rice’s score of 23 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
7) Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
The Good
Hyatt had a monster breakout junior year with 1,267 yards and 12 touchdowns. This was highlighted by his otherwordly game vs Alabama when he went off for 207 yards and five touchdowns. That singular game put him on the map for NFL scouts.
One of the metrics with the highest correlation to future NFL success is receiving yards per team pass attempt and Hyatt shines here with a 3.22 mark which was third best in the class. This added a tidy ten points to his overall WR1 model score.
This model uses legend Lance Zeirlein’s film study grades for prospects. Lance had Hyatt as his top-rated wide-receiving prospect in this class at a 6.50 grade contributing seven points to Hyatt’s overall score. Zeirlein writes “Hyatt has top-end speed that creates tension for defensive coordinators. Run game will see lighter boxes out of the defense’s respect for his explosiveness. Tears into cushions and rockets past off-man coverage.”
The Bad
Ultimately, what we are trying to forecast in our Dynasty rookie drafts is which prospects will produce the most NFL fantasy points per game. Naturally, their college fantasy points per game are a natural correlation to this. Hyatt’s 13.8 PPG is modest and largely influenced by lackluster productivity in his first two years of college. Two points were deducted from his overall WR1 score in this category.
The Ugly
We want to see our elite prospects break out in their freshman or sophomore year. The fact Hyatt failed to do so is a red flag on his resume. Age-adjusted production is a big factor in this model and as a result, Hyatt lost a point toward his overall model score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jalin Hyatt’s score of 24 gives him a 54,2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
6) Zay Flowers, Boston College
The Good
This ranking will come as a shock to many as Flowers was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. He is at the end of a tier in this model. After Flowers, there is quite a drop-off. For Dynasty rookie drafts, later Round 2 and Round 3 will largely be running back and tight end selections for me.
Flowers’ Round 1 draft capital gives him a whopping 13 points toward his overall score of 30 in the WR1 model. His weighted dominator is his most impressive metric outside of expected draft capital. This ranks fourth overall in the class and added five points to his overall score.
The Bad
As we enter the top tier of ranks we need to be a little harder on our prospect grading as to what is considered bad. It is interesting that Flowers was able to achieve a weighted dominator of 40.5% while only having an RYPTPAPG of 2.45. We like to see our elite prospects hit a threshold of 3.0 or higher. He was also just ok when it came to college career fantasy points per game of 15.1. Considering he had a senior year to build up that number you would like to see it be higher.
The Ugly
Flowers is the highest ranked non-early declare in this class but nonetheless, he did not declare early. This is his biggest red flag by far. Declaring early for the NFL is tantamount to receiving an endorsement by the NFL that you are good enough to enter the league as a junior. Flowers had five points deducted from his overall WR1 score due to this.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Zay Flowers’s score of 30 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
5) Josh Downs, UNC
The Good
Josh Downs is as sound analytically as they come. If we were to exclude draft capital, he is one of only two wide receivers in this class who would rank in the top-5 of last year’s wide receiver class based on his analytical profile.
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is one of the more predictive metrics for future fantasy success in the NFL. Downs 3.52 mark was the top RYPTPA score in this class and contributed 12 points to his overall WR1 model score. He was a model of consistent excellence throughout his college career which led to a college career fantasy points per game of 20.8, good for third in the class. Downs was one of only two prospects in the top 10 overall in the model with a weighted dominator above 35%. He easily eclipsed this with a 38.3% mark.
Despite his diminutive stature, Downs had a very good Relative Athletic Score of 8.99. This was third among the top-ten prospects in the model. His agility testing was particularly strong with a 4.15 shuttle time and a 6.75 in the three-cone drill.
The Bad
In the top-2, we have a higher measuring stick. While the ACC is not a bad conference, it is not the SEC by any means. This may be a reach but Downs has that clean of a profile.
The Ugly
The only significant red flag in Downs’s resume is his size at 5’9” and 171 lbs. This will be his biggest obstacle to overcome at the NFL level.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Josh Downs’s score of 36 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
4) Marvin Mims, Oklahoma
The Good
There is a lot to like about Mims’s profile. He is solid across the board but a few areas stand above the rest. First Mims broke out as a freshman at Oklahoma eclipsing the 20% weighted dominator threshold. He had 610 yards receiving and an impressive nine touchdowns. This earned Mims six points toward his overall WR1 score. We also like to see the gradual improvement from year to year from our prospects and this was the case with Mim’s. His sophomore year produced 705 yards receiving and his junior year came in at 1,083 yards.
Mims gets five points added to his score for declaring early for the NFL draft. During the combine, Mims had an impressive showing. Mims 9.41 Relative Athletic Score added 12 points to his overall score in the model.
The Bad
Mims has a pretty clean profile all the way around except the one we address in the next section. If we were to nitpick it would be that he is not truly elite anywhere. He is just very good in all the predictive metrics.
The Ugly
Mims is consistently among the higher average depth of target wide receivers in college football. He hasn’t been a high-volume reception player. The PPR PPG metric captures the reception piece of fantasy points for the prospect’s profile. Mims only had a 13.1 PPR PPG mark in his time at Oklahoma. This was only 17th among all prospects.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Marvin Mims’ score of 37 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
3) Quentin Johnston, TCU
The Good
Johnston’s top contributing metric is his projected first-round draft capital. If he had dropped to Round 2 he would’ve fallen behind Marvin Mims. Johnston’s draft capital added 13 points to his overall WR1 model score.
Johnston’s had two additional shining analytic attributes on his resume. First, was his freshman breakout year when he crossed the 20% weighted dominator (share of the team’s yardage and touchdowns) threshold. The second was a Relative Athletic Score of 8.69. Johnston’s 6’3 inch height and 40.5-inch vertical leap make him a contested catch marvel. This contributed 14 points toward his overall score.
The Bad
Johnston’s 14.4 college career fantasy points per game are not what we want to see out of elite prospects. The best future prospects cross the 20 FPPG threshold.
The Ugly
While he crossed the 20% weighted dominator threshold early (as a freshman), Johnston failed to improve much on this mark with a best-season mark of only 24.2%. This was the lowest result of any of the top-ten prospects in this model and subtracted 2 points from his overall score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Quentin Johnston’s score of 40 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
2) Jordan Addison, USC
The Good
Addison put up mind-blowing numbers his sophomore year at Pitt, helping Kenny Pickett get first-round draft capital. His 1593 yards and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore gave him his best season RYPTPA of 2.94 and weighted dominator of 34.7%. Both are solid numbers.
His best number however was his college career fantasy PPG of 23.5. This was the top result of the class for this metric and gained him five points to his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
I found this tweet from Scott Barrett very interesting. Mark Whipple tends to pump up his best wide receiver to be the only focal point of the offense. His list of past wide receivers to post big college numbers only to flame out in the NFL is getting longer. He even helped middling prospect Trey Palmer to a 1000-yard season and a fourth-year breakout this year. It goes for noting that Addison’s junior year production at USC was roughly half of what it was at Pitt.
The Ugly
Addison cratered during his Combine performance. His 5.95 Relative Athletic Score is the lowest of any of the top-10 prospects in the WR1 model. He has a slender body type at 5’11″, 171 lbs., and posted poor marks in the shuttle and three-cone drill. His worst performance was his vertical of 34 inches.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jordan Addison’s score of 43 gives him a 70.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
The Good
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is as blue chip a prospect as you will ever find. His analytical profile is pristine. I have said several times that his 3.25 receiving yards per team pass attempt mark while playing alongside the two best rookie wide receivers in the NFL this year, while younger than both, is as impressive an analytical metric performance as you will ever see. We already know how good Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are and they are currently valued as the WR4 and WR7 Dynasty wide receivers overall on Keep Trade Cut.
Smith-Njigba finished his sophomore year with an outstanding 95 receptions, 1,606 yards, and nine touchdowns in 13 games as compared to Garrett Wilson’s 1,058 yards in 11 games and Chris Olave’s 936 yards in 11 games.
Smith-Njigba also meets the criteria for future stardom with his early declare status, 6.43 film grade, sophomore year weighted dominator breakout, and 30% best season weighted dominator. This all led the Seattle Seahawks to select Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20th overall providing him a nice landing spot next to D.K. Metcalf for the next several years.
The Bad
Some question JSN’s vertical speed and his 40-time and 10-yard splits are certainly not great at 4.52 and 1.65 respectively. However, his agility scores are truly elite. The only wide receivers with first-round draft capital and a sub 4.0 20-yard shuttle are Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, Rashaun Woods, and Amari Cooper.
The Ugly
JSN’s only other red flag comes from his “injury-plagued” junior season which also resulted in his college career fantasy points per game being lower than desired as prospects generally have their more productive years in their older age seasons. Was he injured or was he already assured of his Round 1 draft status from his incredible sophomore campaign? We may never know the answer to this. What we do know is Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the bar none top wide receiver in the 2023 class.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jaxon Smith Njigba’s score of 53 gives him a 91.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, Grinding the Mocks, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman prospect database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
