So you’ve got an early pick in your start-up draft this off-season and you’re not sure what to do? I’m going to be continuing this series to help you out. Unlike in my last article, I have yet to do a start-up from an early draft slot, so I’m going to be taking a look at a couple of teams whose draft strategy I love and break down their picks, then discuss other players I like at different rounds of the draft. Both of the upcoming teams I’m highlighting were from a third-round reversal or 3RR draft, but in continuing with the fashion of my last article, later I’ll be discussing players I like in 3RR and non-3RR.
Let’s hop in.
Team 1.02
Pick 1: Josh Allen (QB – BUF) @ 1.02
- There’s truly no wrong answer here with who you get, whether it be Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC), Allen, or Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI). There is simply no more valuable asset in Superflex dynasty than one of these three guys.
Pick 2: Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) @ 2.11
- This is one of my favorite picks in the entire draft in Taylor as RB four, a player who just last off-season I believed was massively overvalued. Now, we’re at the point in this off-season where I believe he’s undervalued. I think selecting him anywhere past ~2.06 is a great price and great value.
Pick 3: Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) @ 3.11
- If you’ve read my dynasty outlook on Travis Etienne, you know that I listed him as a sell and stated that he is slightly overvalued. However, this manager selected him as the seventh RB off the board, which I believe to be a solid price for the third-year RB. This manager cemented himself a top-two dynasty QB and two young stud RBs which gives him a solid edge over the competition. Some people view having two stud RBs as a luxury, I believe it to be essential to competing.
Pick 4: Rookie Pick 1.04 @ 4.02
- I can’t speak to this manager’s intentions when selecting a rookie in the upcoming draft, but I will assume he’s targeting either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, whichever one falls to 1.04. I believe this to be the correct move over selecting another RB, as his RB room is already full, so having an extra stud RB in his flex does not give him as big of an advantage compared to another QB. I also believe that the correct decision would be to select a QB over a rookie wide receiver, as a quarterback will almost always give you more of an edge compared to a wide receiver if they were to both “hit.”
Pick 5: Chris Godwin (WR – TB) @ 5.11
- This manager was extremely fortunate to be able to select Godwin as his WR one at the price of WR22. While Godwin has lost Tom Brady (QB – FA) to retirement and the Tampa Bay organization has an uncertain future, Godwin is still only 27 years old and demands roughly a 20% target share yearly, which is more than enough reason to select him at the end of the fifth round.
Team 1.03
Pick 1: Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) @ 1.03
- This was a surprising pick at 1.03 over Jalen Hurts, but understandable enough considering Herbert was the 1.03 just one short year ago. As I said in my rationalizing lingering injuries article, I think Herbert is a great buy right now due to the fact his value is suppressed slightly from his rib cartilage injury. I prefer Hurts over Herbert at 1.03, but for those who may think Hurts this year was a product of an uber-talented roster, Herbert would be my next logical selection.
Pick 2: Christian McCaffrey (RB – SFO) @ 2.10
- This manager selected McCaffrey at the pick range where I love to select him – the late second round. CMC offers an upside that frankly no other running back in the universe offers, and he’s still only 26. I think while CMC will do nothing but lose value, sometimes you simply need points and have to compete, and with the right roster build like this manager continues to construct, he can be a league-winning selection.
Pick 3: Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) @ 3.10
- Snagging Higgins as WR11 off the board feels illegal, but this manager was able to get this young alpha at a huge discount. Just last season Higgins was selected in the WR four to six range in startups, and I don’t believe he played any worse this season, he was just slightly unlucky with some injuries. I think this pick is a great way to almost guarantee a value boost come next season, as Higgins should either hold or gain value as long as he’s attached to Joe Burrow (QB – CIN).
Pick 4: Davante Adams (WR – LV) @ 4.03
- Coming off of another tremendous season, Adams showed that he can dominate anywhere, and his fantasy points reflected that. I don’t think I need to say much about a top-three WR in the game, besides the fact that he will probably continue to lose value as he ages, as all players do. Again, coupling Adams with CMC is the kind of move you have to make when you go all in.
Pick 5: George Kittle (TE – SFO) @ 5.10
- With his fifth pick, this manager selects the last tight end on the board who has a chance to break into that top-three range of tight-end production in Kittle. While I think his value is slightly inflated as he’s coming off of a regular season finish of seven touchdowns in his last four games, he’s only 29 and tight end is the most scarce position in fantasy football. Locking down an elite or potentially elite one should be a top priority, and this manager did just that.
Players I like at each pick, 3RR. Players listed are in order of how I perceive their value:
1.01 – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts. I don’t think I need to say too much here, these are the three most valuable assets in Superflex. Don’t overthink it and you’ll be fine.
2.12 – Jonathan Taylor, Trey Lance (QB – SFO), Mark Andrews (TE – BAL), Rookie Pick 1.02. It’s not often that I like selecting an RB over an elite tight end, but Jonathan Taylor and his price right now make that very hard to pass up. Lance is usually the last QB on the board (besides rookie picks) who has a solid chance to break into the upper echelon of elite quarterbacks, as he has his elite mobility coupled with the Shanahan system. Andrews is my go-to selection in the second round. I try to move mountains to select him or Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) as often as possible to pair with two elite quarterbacks. Finally, with Rookie Pick 1.02 you’re giving yourself a guarantee at either Bryce Young (QB – FA) or CJ Stroud (QB – FA) to be your chance at a second elite quarterback for third-round prices.
3.12/4.01 – Saquon Barkley (RB – NYJ), Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA), Travis Kelce (TE – KC), Rookie Pick 1.04. I love all these guys at this spot. Barkley can easily be the RB one on your team taken at the discount of the end of the third round. I think he came back in a big way this past season, although he didn’t catch quite as many passes as we’d hoped compared to his rookie season. Hill was on a record-breaking pace in terms of yardage last season and he’s still only 28! I have no idea why his ADP is so low. As I said in my last article, Kelce’s age may scare people, but he is head and shoulders producing more fantasy points than any other tight-end. He is a league-winning pick with the right roster build. Finally, I like the Rookie Pick 1.04 here, as just having that chance at a potentially elite QB is too good to pass up, and if you miss out on that, you can get a young pass-catching RB in Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – FA).
5.12/6.01 – Russell Wilson (QB – DEN), Javonte Williams (RB – DEN), George Kittle, Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown (WR – ARZ). Wilson is my biggest positive regression candidate this year; you’re getting a potential high-end QB at the end of the fifth. That’s an upside you can’t replicate. Williams may start the season a little slow coming off of his ACL tear, but the pass-catching weapon should be a target for this range of drafts. As I said earlier, Kittle is the last tight end on the board who should be locked in for a top-five finish but has the potential to be in the top-three finish range. For the wide receivers, Godwin and Brown are two young target earners I’ve been trying to acquire all off-season who should both hold their value and continue producing this season. While both of their QB situations are a little murky, they’re good bets to hold value.
Players I like at each pick, non3RR. Players listed are in order of how I perceive their value:
1.01 – see above
2.12/3.01 – see above
4.12/5.01 – D’Andre Swift (RB – DET), Josh Jacobs (RB – LV), Treylon Burks (WR – TEN), Najee Harris (RB – PIT). To be honest, there are not a ton of players and values I love here. I think that landing D’Andre Swift here is the best possible result, as he’s an RB whose pass-catching ability gives him an incredibly high upside, and I’m more than happy to take a swing at pick 4.12. I believe Jacobs and Harris to be two other young RBs who should maintain their value or production in the coming season. Remember – Josh Jacobs is only 25! Treylon Burks had some great peripherals during his rookie season but was mostly held back due to injury and offensive ineptitude.
6.12/7.01 – Rookie Pick 1.09, Amari Cooper (WR – CLE), Calvin Ridley (WR – JAX), Tony Pollard (RB – DAL). Getting pretty far down the board now, if there are not a ton of players I like, I tend to go for rookie picks as it’s almost like giving yourself more time to make the selection. Rookie picks are completely liquid and will always hold value in this short time from now to your rookie draft. At 1.09, there could be guys like Michael Mayer (TE – FA), Kayshon Boutte (WR – FA), or Zach Charbonnet (RB – FA). Next up we have Cooper, who was quietly very productive with Jacoby Brissett (QB – CLE) this past season, and who should only see more production this upcoming season with the full return of Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE). For our last wide receiver, Ridley is coming off a non-injury-related year-long break and he’s only still 28 years old. In the last full season, he played he had a 25% target share and posted 18.8 fantasy points per game. Finally, Pollard is a late-round RB perfect for a zero-RB build, or just as a flex spot. He’s only 25 with almost no tread on his tires coming off of his most productive season ever. We hope he stays in Dallas and that Ezekiel Elliot (RB – DAL) continues to be his teammate because there are not many RBs you’d rather share a backfield with who are as unproductive as Zeke.
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