Tale of the Tape is a series where I evaluate two players closely regarded by the Mock Draft community based on a series of metrics that have proven to be predictive of future Dynasty success. After the evaluation, a winner is chosen between the two of whom you should be targeting in your Dynasty rookie drafts when both are on the board, and it is your pick.
This research is a precursor to my annual WR1 rankings, which forecast the future success of incoming rookie wide receiver prospects by incorporating 12 advanced metrics into a model. Each metric is weighted differently within the model and, when combined, gives each player a single score, the WR1 rating. To see last year’s WR1 rankings, click here. This year’s pre-draft WR1 model rankings will be published in April, so stay tuned!
The two players I will be evaluating in this article are Troy Franklin and Adonai Mitchell.
The NFL mock draft database currently has Troy Franklin’s consensus NFL draft position at 32, while Adonai Mitchell is listed at 29.
Tale of the Tape
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 rating scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declared. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
As such, this is one of the more influential inputs into the WR1 model.
Troy Franklin and Adonai Mitchell are both early declares. This bodes well for each of them when compared to their peers in the final WR1 model. However, it does not give either a leg up when comparing to each other.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production during his senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly.
Adonai Mitchell suffered an ankle injury in his sophomore year, which allowed him to play only six games. Still, in those six games, Mitchell could only muster up 1.5 receptions and 22 yards per game. His breakout came in his junior season after transferring from Georgia to Texas.
Franklin easily passed the 20% team share breakout threshold as a true sophomore after an 891-yard campaign. This also handily led the team in receiving, an impressive feat for a sophomore.
Franklin gets a plus in this metric over Mitchell.
*Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game (RYPTPAPG). Best Season
10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPAPG above 3.0.
Franklin boasted an impressive 2.94 RYPTPAPG this past season for the Oregon Ducks. This was a result of his top-line production of 1383 yards. He aligns with what we want to see from our top prospects in this arena.
Mitchell’s mark, on the other hand, is poor. A sub 2.00 mark in this category should give you great pause when evaluating the prospect.
Franklin easily earns the plus mark for RYPTPAPG vs. Mitchell.
Weighted Dominator – Best Season
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
Franklin once again eclipses Mitchell in this category, earning the plus mark. Mitchell did make this more competitive than the RYPTPA metric on the strength of his 11 touchdowns.
Contested Target Rate – Last Season
This is a new input into the WR1 model this year, as it has proven to be a predictive metric to identify wide receiver busts.
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The contested target rate is the number of contested targets divided by a player’s total targets. This is, in essence, a way to measure how much separation a prospect is getting. The logic behind this being predictive of busts is that these players can bully their way to production in college. But in the NFL, with bigger, stronger, faster players, the contested catch prowess doesn’t hold up near as well as elite separators.
Ideally, you want to see this rate under 20%.
I was quite surprised when I saw this performance for Mitchell. He posted an outstanding 12.8% contested target rate. This indicates he was achieving separation on 87.2% of his targets. This is one of the top performances in this class. At 6’4″, you would expect him to be more of a contested catch prospect. But he does not rely on that. This is a good sign for him and indicates a high ceiling. His top-line production at Texas was underwhelming, but this underlying metric portends some untapped potential.
Troy Franklin also posted a solid 16.5% contested target rate mark. However, this section is all about Adonai.
Career Fantasy Points Per Game
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Mitchell had a slightly better start to his career with 426 yards receiving his freshman season. Franklin meanwhile accumulated 209 yards receiving his first year at Oregon. After that, their paths diverged. Franklin amassed 2,274 yards over his next two seasons, while Mitchell had 979 yards.
In the end, Franklin handily outpaced Mitchell in career fantasy points per game with a 14.0 vs 9.8 rate, earning yet another plus mark in this Tale of the Tape contest.
Summary
I expect both players to go late first or early second round in Dynasty rookie drafts.
They are different types of prospects, for sure.
Troy Franklin is a high-floor player with a polished resume. He checks every box you want to see on an incoming prospect. Franklin is a safe bet to be a significant contributor to your Dynasty team.
Adonai Mitchell lags in most of the important predictive metrics. However, he had an outstanding performance in the contested catch rate. This signals either underutilization or a lack of consistency in college. If Mitchell can put it all together, he has a nice ceiling. For a player with such a long frame, he has excellent twitch to create easy separation.
In summary, Franklin is the preferred choice in Dynasty rookie drafts. If both are on the clock when your turn is up, I advise selecting the dynamic weapon from the University of Oregon.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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