What to do with Kyren Williams in Dynasty

Kyren Williams may have been the biggest surprise at the running back position in 2023 for both fantasy and real-life purposes. This is a guy who was sitting on waivers in nearly every fantasy redraft league to start the season and even some dynasty leagues with shallower rosters. If you already had Kyren on your roster or were lucky enough to snag him off waivers, he was likely a league-winner for you if you made your league’s postseason. Williams averaged 23.6 PPR PPG in Weeks 15-17 (most leagues’ fantasy playoffs), providing a big boost to owners’ championship runs. Nobody could have projected this kind of production, and understandably so, and this is uncharted waters for a prospect like Kyren. I want to discuss what we should do with Kyren in our dynasty leagues moving forward. Should we buy, sell, or hold? Let’s take a look. 

College Production

Kyren Williams was a three-year player and two-year starter for Notre Dame, totaling 2,153 rush yards, 675 receiving yards, and 31 total touchdowns during his time there. He was a 4-star recruit, according to ESPN and 247 Sports, coming out of high school. Kyren’s biggest strength coming out of college was his pass-catching ability. He amassed 77 receptions for the Irish in his final two seasons, and these weren’t just check-down passes; he had a well-developed route tree. Surprisingly, his biggest weakness, according to NFL Draft Buzz, was his pass-blocking ability, which he has excelled in at the NFL level. It is worth noting that Kyren skipped his senior season to declare for the NFL Draft, so at the very least, we can’t deny he was a good enough player to make that jump early. 

Combine/Prospect Profile

Kyren was not a player on NFL teams’ radars coming into the 2022 season. He had a prospect grade of 6.00 and a Next Gen Stats Total Score of 75, ranked 13th in his draft class for RBs. His Athleticism score was an abysmal 51, which was the RB33 in the class. 

Kyren ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at the combine, measuring 5’9″and 194 lbs. So not only was he slow, but he was small for NFL RB standards. We rarely see running backs excel who are both small and slow. 

Above was Kyren’s RAS grade, or Relative Athletic Score. For those who don’t know, a 3.47 RAS is really bad. The scale ranges from 0 to 10, and the average RAS score for a player on an NFL roster was 7.16 heading into last season, according to this article from the RAS website. As of February 2023, 81.35% of NFL players had an RAS score of 5.00 or above, and 45.21% scored above 8.00. So, needless to say, this was not a player who seemed to have a “bell cow” role awaiting him in the NFL. Kyren was selected in the 5th round at pick 164 by the Rams. Historically speaking, we know Day 3 RBs rarely pan out in the NFL. 

Rookie Season

Kyren’s rookie season was not one that you would look at and say, “Yeah, this guy is definitely on the path to becoming an elite NFL running back.” He appeared in just ten games, rushing the ball 35 times for 139 yards and adding nine receptions for 76 yards. Williams sat behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. all season. Fast forward one year, and Akers is buried on the Vikings’ depth chart after suffering his second Achilles tear, while Henderson was cut from the Rams’ practice squad and may be out of the NFL altogether. (Man, the Rams sure have done Henderson dirty. That’s a topic for another time, though.) Many dynasty players were excited for Akers to finally take on that 3-down role in 2023 as he had fully recovered from his first Achilles tear, but those dreams were quickly crushed.

Year 2 (2023 season)

This season was historic for Kyren, as he finished with over 1300 scrimmage yards in just 12 games played. Had it not been for a high ankle sprain before Week 7, Kyren would have posted some truly eye-popping numbers. He was on pace for 1,620 rush yards, 291 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns over a 17-game season. Williams finished with 21.3 PPR PPG and was the RB2 overall, behind only Christian McCaffrey (24.4 PPG). 

I wanted to see how Kyren’s Year 2 stacked up to other RBs in recent history, so I plugged in some parameters on Stathead.com based on his per-game production. Kyren averaged 5.0 YPC, 95.3 rush YPG, and 21.3 PPG. I searched RBs that achieved 90 rush YPG, 20 PPG, and 5.0 YPC in either their rookie or second season since 2000, and this was the list that came back:

Chris Johnson

Clinton Portis

Jonathan Taylor

Ezekiel Elliot

Kyren Williams

Frank Gore

Pretty incredible company, right? I was interested (but not overly surprised) to discover that Kyren was the only one with Day 3 draft capital to put up these numbers. Frank Gore was the closest to Kyren regarding draft capital, but even he went in Round 3. Kyren’s 2023 season was unprecedented; we literally have not seen a prospect of his caliber produce at this level in the past 20+ years. 

Situation/ Team Outlook

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Sean McVay’s ability to find the diamond in the rough. We witnessed Cooper Kupp have one of the greatest wide receiver seasons in NFL history in 2021 when he won the Triple Crown. Kupp was not a highly respected prospect coming out of college, either. He was a five-year player for East Washington, and while he shattered all kinds of records for the Eagles, this was not Power 5 competition or anything. Kupp was selected in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft, so he has far outperformed his draft capital in the NFL. 

We’ve seen the same thing with Puka Nacua this year, who posted one of the most outstanding rookie WR seasons ever and is now the WR5 in dynasty on KeepTradeCut. Like Kyren, Puka was a 5th-round pick in the NFL Draft and was going in the 4th round of most Superflex rookie drafts last summer. 

Matthew Stafford passed the eye test with flying colors this season, and I genuinely think he’s still a borderline top-5 quarterback in the NFL (not in fantasy, obviously). Based on his contract details, the Rams don’t have a possible out until 2025, so we know Stafford will be their guy in 2024 at minimum. Assuming he produces similarly to how he did in 2023, I think we’ll likely see Stafford in LA for 2025 as well unless he decides to retire. This is all great news for Kyren, although I will say I was disappointed with his usage as a pass-catcher this season. He averaged roughly three receptions and 17 receiving yards per game. Certainly not bad, but I would expect a bit more based on Kyren’s college production as a receiver. Either way, having an elite QB like Stafford under center ensures this team will have plenty of scoring opportunities next season.

Maybe McVay knows how to get the most out of his players, and we should trust him with our Kyren shares. However, I am concerned with how McVay has handled this backfield historically. We’ve been fooled into thinking Akers was the go-to guy in the past, only to find out he was in McVay’s doghouse. Before 2023, it was a mystery trying to figure out whether Akers, Henderson, or even Sony Michel would be the featured back in this offense. He likes to keep us on our toes, without a doubt. 

Draft Picks

After a 12-game sample of Kyren absolutely breaking fantasy, I think we can place a little less weight on his prospect profile when determining dynasty value. Still, the lack of size, athleticism, and draft capital are all legitimate red flags that must be considered. 

Rams have a draft pick in each of the first three rounds, as well as a handful of Day 3 picks in this year’s upcoming draft. I don’t expect McVay to use an early pick on an RB, but I expect them to add a Day 3 RB or two. The Rams only have Zach Evans on contract for 2024, so they will want to add some depth to lighten Kyren’s load a bit. Considering this draft’s lack of RB talent, I don’t foresee anyone taking Kyren’s job in 2024. 

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

So, what should we do with Kyren in dynasty? Well, I’m not considering buying until after I see the NFL Draft results, and even then, I’d only buy Kyren on my true contending teams. Too often in the past, we’ve seen RBs with little team investment have a great season and get thrown to the side the following year. I think Kyren’s role in 2024 is relatively safe, but I don’t have enough faith in Kyren producing in 2025 and beyond to buy him on a middling team. 

I’m holding my Kyren shares as it stands today, but I am open to selling at the right price. If I can get the 2024 1.07 rookie pick or earlier (in Superflex), I’m selling. Kyren is the RB6 on KeepTradeCut, and while I don’t disagree with that ranking, I’m not interested in paying for a “top tier” RB unless it’s Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson. All three of these guys are incredibly athletic superstars with the team investment I’m looking for when projecting future opportunities. If I’m not getting one of those three and I’m contending, I’d prefer to tier way down and buy cheap points, like Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, or James Conner. 

One thing that gives me some confidence in Kyren’s long-term outlook as an NFL starter is his ability as a pass-blocker. This is a guaranteed way to see the field frequently as an RB, and Kyren has proven his worth in that department. Still, I suggest proceeding with caution when it comes to Kyren Williams. RB value can change in an instant, and the red flags mentioned make him a dangerous asset to dump a ton of value into. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding