Redraft Early Round 2

In a previous article, I examined my early redraft round one rankings. In that article, I looked at the first three tiers of players and started tier four with Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones. Round two completes tier four, encompasses tier five, and begins tier six. For this list, we’re assuming this is a 1 QB, 12-team, PPR format where there is an equal number of RB and WR starters.

Round 2

Tier Four

Along with Aaron Jones and Henry from my previous article, Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill makeup tier four in my redraft rankings. Both receivers have solid quarterbacks in Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. 

Julio Jones has produced consistently for the last six years. In each of those seasons, he played 14 or more games, and his lowest yardage total was 1394. He had 100 or more receptions in three of those six seasons and averaged about 104 catches a year. The only concern with Julio Jones is his age, having just turned 31. While I don’t expect a massive decline from him, the risk keeps him as my WR4 and outside the first round.

Hill is a different story. He only has one full season as a high-end WR1, finishing as the WR3 in 2018. He isn’t a volume receiver, averaging around five catches per game from 2017-2019. Therefore, Hill relies on big plays from Patrick Mahomes to maintain his status as a top receiver. Since these rankings are for a PPR format, I have to rank Hill just below the “workhorse receivers.” Those guys are guaranteed consistent volume, while Hill is not. However, I would still be completely comfortable with Hill as my WR1 in fantasy, and that’s why he belongs in this tier.

Tier Five

Tier five includes seven players. There are three running backs, the top two tight ends, and the pair of Tampa Bay wide receivers. 

The first two running backs, Leonard Fournette and Josh Jacobs begin the tier. While both are potential three-down backs on low-ceiling offenses, Jacobs had more carries per game and more touchdowns than Fournette. However, Fournette far exceeded Jacobs’ passing game output – hauling in 76 receptions to Jacobs’ 20. I expect both players to retain a similar role in 2019. Also, Fournette should positively regress from his three touchdowns in 2019, and Jacobs should expand his passing-game work. Since this is a PPR format, I’ll give a slight edge to Fournette, but I’d be happy with either player as my RB1.

After the two running backs, Travis Kelce is the next player on my board. He has been the TE1 overall for four seasons running. He provides an immense positional advantage and saves you from needing to stream tight end. In 2019, he led all tight ends in targets, receptions, and yards. However, he only had five receiving touchdowns. Considering that he played in a Mahomes-led offense, Kelce could even score more touchdowns in 2020. Tight ends tend to age well, so I’m not concerned that he’s 30-years-old. Lock Kelce in as the TE1 and at 17 overall.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are next. In 2019, Godwin was the WR2 in points per game, and Evans was the WR4. Some might be surprised that I have Evans higher than Godwin. But  While Godwin outperformed Evans in 2019, Evans has started his career with six straight 1000 yards seasons and has been a high-end WR1 for most of his career. Whether quarterback Jameis Winston returns to the Buccaneers or not, I would still feel more comfortable with Evans over Godwin. However, I still think both Godwin and Evans can be WR1s, even with a possible change at quarterback.

Austin Ekeler comes in at 20 overall to round out the tier five running backs. Ekeler was just signed to an extension by the Chargers for four years, $24.5 million. In 2019, He finished as the RB4, only a few points behind Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott.

Melvin Gordon is on his way out of Los Angeles, and Ekeler will be the definite starter at running back. While Justin Jackson or another backup will have a role, I think that Ekeler will at least match his 132 carries and 108 targets from 2019. Even though he scored eight receiving touchdowns and will likely regress there, the increased volume could make up for that. At the very least, Ekeler is safe and should easily repeat as an RB1 in PPR formats.

George Kittle closes out tier Five. He finished a hair behind Darren Waller for the TE2 spot in PPR formats in just 14 games played. He scored 15.9 fantasy points per game, only 0.1 point less than Kelce. He turned 107 targets into 85 catches, 1053 yards, and five receiving touchdowns.

Because of his massive volume, Kittle is the number one target to own on the 49ers, despite the rise of 2019 rookie Deebo Samuel. He also will turn 27 during the season, placing him square in the prime of his career. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt Kittle in 2020, and I have him ranked highly as a result. 

All the same arguments about avoiding streaming that apply to Kelce also apply here to Kittle. The only reason that Kelce is slightly higher is the difference in quarterback play. I would still rather own the tight end catching passes from Patrick Mahomes over the one catching them from Jimmy Garoppolo. But Kittle is still a solid pick, though as he ends an impressive tier five.

Tier Six

To me, after Kittle, there is a pretty steep drop-off in quality. I think that some of the 2020 rookie running backs will be in this tier come draft time, but for now, it’s still a pretty big tier. In addition to the three players listed below, I would include D.J. Moore, Amari Cooper, Juju Smith-Schuster, Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Gordon in this tier. 

However, the three players that close out round two are Odell Beckham Jr (OBJ)., Kenny Golladay, and Miles Sanders.

For the first time in his career, Beckham Jr. was not a fantasy star in 2019. He finished as the WR25 in total points and as the WR32 in fantasy points per game. In each of his previous six seasons, Beckham Jr. finished no lower than WR9 in fantasy points per game. Therefore, up until 2019, he was a solid WR1 whenever he was on the field. Beckham Jr. suffered from a sports hernia injury throughout 2019 that may have contributed to his down season. 

Additionally, it was his first season with new quarterback Baker Mayfield, which showed on the field. Mayfield missed OBJ on a handful of downfield routes and failed to display the chemistry with him that he showed with Jarvis Landry. In 2018, Landry and Mayfield were not on the same page, but they took a step forward in season two together. I believe BeckhamJr.  can do the same. If he is completely healthy, this price is around his floor. Additionally, Landry had offseason surgery and will miss the entire offseason program. The Browns will need to rely on OBJ even more, and I expect a massive bounce-back in 2020.

In Detroit, Golladay finished as the WR9 in 2019, and that’s precisely where I have him for 2020. He posted 65 catches on 116 targets for 1190 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2019. While I believe that his touchdowns were a bit high, I think he can improve his catch rate. 

He only played eight of his 16 games with Matthew Stafford. Both Jeff Driskel and David Blough performed poorly in relief of Stafford, which hurt Golladay down the stretch. With Stafford, Golladay had 35 receptions for 640 yards and seven touchdowns. Across a full season, that would be 70 receptions, 1280 yards, and 14 touchdowns, which would have made him the WR2 in 2019. While Golladay comes with some risk, he also has upside. He makes sense in this tier.

The third-former Nittany Lion in the rankings, Sanders, will return after a strong rookie season in 2019. He had 179 carries for 818 yards and 50 catches for 509 yards. While I’ve written about Sanders’ success previously, I think the primary debate for 2020 is whether Sanders will be a true workhorse or a once again a committee back. 

He showed receiving upside as a rookie and played in a high-powered Eagles’ offense led by Carson Wentz. Therefore, if he takes a majority of the snaps in 2020, he will almost certainly outperform this draft price. 

However, head coach Doug Pederson has shown a propensity to use a multiple back system. Boston Scott remains on the roster and could steal passing down work. Additionally, the Eagles have shown interest in signing a veteran free agent running back, especially LeSean McCoy. While I believe that Eagles would be well-served to use Sanders as a workhorse, there is just no guarantee that they will. That’s why Sanders falls in tier six for me.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.