Just for fun, I’m going to get into my early redraft round one for 2020. This list is subject to significant changes throughout the offseason, but let’s take a quick look right now. For this list, we’re assuming a 1 QB, 12-team, PPR format where there is an equal number of RB and WR starters.
The Top 12
Tier One
I think tier one needs little discussion. Christian McCaffrey scored the most fantasy points in recent memory in 2019. He totaled 469.2 points, over 150 more fantasy points than any other running back. While some might prefer Barkley or perhaps another player, I can’t see any argument for selecting anyone else. CMC is the clear 1.01 in a tier by himself, and it behooves us to move on to actual debates.
Tier Two
In tier two, I have listed the four running backs that I would be most comfortable with as my RB1, assuming I can’t have CMC. I decided to go with four running backs in tier two because I noticed a significant disparity in the depth at the running back and wide receiver positions in redraft. At running back, I see about 25 players I’d feel comfortable relying on for weekly production, maybe 30 if I’m generous. After about RB40, it’s all handcuffs and extreme question marks. In contrast, I have wide receivers such as Dede Westbrook, Golden Tate, Cole Beasley, and Larry Fitzgerald outside of my top 50 receivers, all of whom had some fantasy relevance in 2019. Therefore, I would strongly prefer to go with running backs in the early rounds instead of starting with a wide receiver, as I know I can get receiver depth later.
As for why I chose these four running backs, I believe that these four players have the least concerns about their roles going into 2020. Elliott and Barkley are complete workhorses. When healthy, each of those guys will dominate backfield touches with their backups just getting scraps. That dominance is why they occupy the second and third slots in my rankings. Kamara comes in at number four. While he is not the workhorse that Elliott and Barkley are, he plays in the highest-powered offense. With Drew Brees returning in 2020, I believe Kamara will bounce back from his RB9 finish in 2019 and will return to the top five running backs. Finally, Cook plays for a run-first team with no significant competition for touches. His backup, Alexander Mattison does see more work than the other players, though. Combine that with Cook’s slightly concerning injury history, and he comes in at number five.
Tier 2.5: Michael Thomas
I wanted to split Thomas in a half tier for a specific reason. He finished far and above any other fantasy receiver in 2019. In PPR formats, he scored 374.6 points, over 100 points more than the WR2, Chris Godwin. Therefore, he is the number one wide receiver, and he should rank ahead of all other receivers. Once Drew Brees clarified that he planned to return for 2020, Thomas’ position in the draft was completely secured. Honestly, I could not fault a fantasy owner who chose to take Thomas at number two overall, behind just CMC. I would never do that due to the value of running backs over wide receivers, but it is a legitimate strategy. If you believe in your ability to find running backs on waivers, then perhaps starting with Thomas would be wise.
Tier Three
Tier three encompasses the rest of the first round. Mixon and Chubb top the list, as I believe they are the most talented running backs remaining. With Joe Burrow coming to the Bengals, I believe Mixon will improve on his RB13 finish in 2019. Considering how Burrow used Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the LSU passing game, I also think Mixon can improve on his 35 receptions from 2019. Chubb is simply a workhorse back. He finished with 298 carries in 2019, just five carries fewer than the 303 of carry-leader Derrick Henry. He totaled 1494 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Even though Kareem Hunt might eat into Chubb’s workload, Chubb is still a locked-in RB1.
The next two players, Hopkins and Adams, are two of the most consistent wide receivers of the last few seasons. While I would prefer to go with a running back, it is impossible to pass on Hopkins or Adams near the back of the first round. Adams missed games due to injury in 2019, but he still finished fifth in fantasy points per game, while Hopkins finished sixth. In 2018, Adams was first, and Hopkins was third. In 2017, Hopkins was second and Adams with ninth. Hopkins will be entering the 2020 season at 28 years old and Adams at 27, so both are in their prime. Additionally, both receivers have strong quarterbacks in Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, respectively. There are simply no concerns with either player, which is why they are two of just three wide receivers in the first round of my rankings.
Tier Four
Unfortunately, if you have the 11th or 12th pick, you will be forced to make an ugly choice. I have listed Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones as the 11th and 12th players on my board. Both Henry and Jones have significant red flags. Henry finished as the RB5 overall and RB3 in points per game in 2019. In a standard or even a half PPR format, I would put Henry in the same tier as Mixon and Chubb. However, he received just 25 targets and 18 receptions in 2019. Those numbers are his highest marks in each category in his career. The lack of PPR upside makes it difficult for me to endorse spending a first-round pick on Henry. Additionally, he scored 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns in 2019. It is simply impossible to rely on a running back to score that often, as touchdowns tend to be a more random stat than carries, yards, or receptions. Jones comes with some of the same issues. He scored 19 total touchdowns in 2019, a number that should be almost impossible for him to repeat. Unlike Henry, Jones scored his 16 rushing touchdowns on just 236 carries, so negative touchdown regression is virtually inevitable for Jones.
To me, tier four would also include the 13th and 14th players: Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill. Both are reliable number one receivers, but both have some minor concerns that prevent them from being ranked with Hopkins and Adams. Jones will enter 2020 at 31 years old. In previous years, I have ranked Jones around number 10 overall in PPR formats, so I feel that a drop to number 13 overall is perfectly reasonable. Considering that his age is the only significant difference between 2019 and 2020, I am still totally comfortable with Jones at the top of the second round. As for Hill, I’m not sure I would want him on my team at this price. He only finished the 2019 season as the WR10 in points per game. He was also only the WR5 in points per game in 2018. Considering I have him ranked as my WR5, it seems like a fair ranking at best.
Therefore, in tier four you have two running backs who are due for massive regression and two wide receivers with some minor red flags. The receivers are likely safer, but can also be replaced more easily with lower receivers than the running backs can. It’s far in advance, but I do not like these tier four players and what I’d have to choose from at the 11th and 12th drafting positions.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
