With all of the postponed games, surprise flops, and COVID-related absences, Week 15 may have been the most chaotic week in the history of fantasy football. I mean, Duke Johnson was the RB1 for goodness’ sake. That being said, most of our picks performed as expected. In particular, Jalen Hurts came through with a strong performance that likely swayed many playoff matchups late on Tuesday evening. If you were able to come through with a win in Week 15, congratulations! Join me as I take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or let you down in the semi-finals.

Let’s get into the picks.

Starts – Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. Colts

Kyler Murray’s performance against the Lions was both gross and entirely unexpected. But, even without DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray has one of the highest ceilings in fantasy. He has finished as the overall QB1 three times this season and inside the top ten in 55% of his games. The Colts have a solid defense, but you can’t get cute here. 

Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Dolphins 

Despite his limitations as a passer, Taysom Hill finished as the QB4 in each of his first two starts. Then, last week, he struggled in a low-scoring game against the Buccaneers. You may not feel great about starting Hill in a must-win matchup, but his massive rushing upside makes him a stronger option than pocket passers like Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz, especially if you’re an underdog.  

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Washington

Starts – Running Backs

Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons vs. Lions

In Week 15, Cordarrelle Patterson finished worse than RB21 for just the third time this season. He chose the worst possible week for a dud performance but, assuming you survived, you have to keep playing Patterson. He’s a virtual lock to touch the ball fifteen or more times against the lowly Lions.

David Montgomery, Bears @ Seahawks

David Montgomery was inefficient against the Vikings, but he still touched the ball 23 times. He has played at least 70% of the offensive snaps and seen no fewer than fifteen touches in a game since he returned from injury in Week 9. He is a true bellcow that dominates both goal line and receiving work. Start him with confidence against the Seahawks, who have struggled against fantasy RBs all season.

Saquon Barkley, Giants @ Eagles

Saquon Barkley plays in a terrible offense and cedes a frustrating amount of work to Devontae Booker, but he’s still a solid starting option at a thin position. Since he returned from injury in Week 11, Barkley has hit double-digit carries in four out of five games with target counts of six, five, nine, three, and eight. Even if Jake Fromm is the starter, Barkley should be a low-end RB2 option against the Eagles. 

Honorable Mention: Michael Carter, Jets vs. Jaguars

Starts – Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown, Buccaneers @ Panthers

Antonio Brown hasn’t played since Week 6 due to an ankle injury and a three-game suspension. Now, nearly ten weeks later, he’s set to return to an offense that will be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette. Brown will be Tom Brady’s top target in a divisional matchup with massive playoff implications. He is an absolute must-start. 

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers @ Titans

Despite his one-catch game against the Falcons, Brandon Aiyuk is the WR16 over the past eight weeks. Competing with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for targets in a run-heavy offense will lead to dud performances, but the fantasy playoffs are all about upside. Aiyuk has plenty against the Titans, who have allowed the second-most points to the position this season.

Christian Kirk, Cardinals vs. Colts

Christian Kirk exploded against the Lions, finishing as the WR5 with nine catches for 94 yards and a TD. Kirk also posted WR16 and WR27 finishes back in Weeks 9 and 10 with DeAndre Hopkins out of the lineup. In what should be a competitive matchup against the Colts, I view Kirk as a high-upside WR3. 

Honorable Mention: Odell Beckham Jr., Rams @ Vikings

Starts – Tight Ends

Zach Ertz, Cardinals vs. Colts

Like Chrisitan Kirk, Zach Ertz received a target bump due to the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Of course, it’s only logical that the other receivers would be asked to step up and take on a larger role when a star player is out. With a solid target share on one of the league’s best offenses, Zach Ertz is a solid TE1 option in Week 16. 

Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet, Bears @ Seahawks

Sits – Quarterbacks

Mac Jones, Patriots vs. Bills

Despite putting together an incredibly efficient rookie campaign, Mac Jones has not been particularly good for fantasy football. In Week 15, Jones finished as a QB1 for the third time this season, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance against the Bills, who have been the second-worst matchup for opposing QBs this season. 

Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. Rams

Kirk Cousins opened the season with three straight performances of 22+ fantasy points. Since then, he has reached that total just twice. This lack of upside is a real problem for immobile QBs. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense has allowed just three TD passes across their last four games, facing Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson in that span. 

Honorable Mention: Carson Wentz, Colts vs. Patriots

Sits – Running Backs

Damien Harris, Patriots vs. Bills

Damien Harris’ usage this season is anything but encouraging. He’s averaging just under fourteen carries per game and has no more than eleven in any of his last three games. He has one reception or fewer in each of his last six games. His fantasy relevance is entirely dependent on TDs. He always has a chance to find the end zone, but I’d prefer not to rely on him against this Buffalo defense.

Darrell Henderson, Rams @ Vikings

Well, everyone wants to know: who’s the starter in Los Angeles? While I expect Sean McVay to ride the hot hand down the stretch, Sony Michel does appear to be the 1A in the backfield after he out-touched Henderson eighteen to eight in Week 15. Unless Henderson can regain the upper hand, he’s not a player I want to entrust with my fantasy fate. 

Honorable Mention: Duke Johnson, Dolphins @ Saints

Sits – Wide Receivers

Rashod Bateman, Ravens @ Bengals

Rashod Bateman has shown a lot of promise during his rookie campaign, but that hasn’t translated to fantasy production in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Bateman has finished better than WR52 just once. With just one 100-yard game and zero TDs on the season, he also isn’t offering the type of ceiling that justifies his significant downside. Look for a safer option this week.

Kenny Golladay, Giants @ Eagles

With Sterling Shepard out for the season, more targets have opened up in New York. I don’t care. Whether the issue is health, quarterback play, offensive scheme, or something else entirely, Kenny Golladay just doesn’t have it this season. He has just one weekly finish inside the top 40 this season, and I’m not expecting his second to come against Darius Slay and the Eagles’ defense.

Honorable Mention: Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs. Bills

Sits -Tight Ends

Gerald Everett, Seahawks vs. Bears

As always, the tight end position is a complete wasteland after the top tier. Everett has reached double-digit PPR points in three of his past five games, but he only has one game in that span with more than 37 receiving yards. Tyler Lockett should return for the team’s matchup against the Bears, which will mean more competition for targets in an offense that ranks 31st in pass plays per game. I’ll pass.

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.