Dak Prescott: Buy or Sell?

Dak Prescott: Buy or Sell?

In Dynasty Superflex formats, the quarterback is king. From a fantasy perspective, these players have both the highest floor and ceiling combination. Therefore, drafting or acquiring top-tier quarterbacks is the cornerstone to creating a relevant, consistent contender in Superflex leagues. One quarterback who may be right on that line of being “elite” is Dallas QB Dak Prescott. In this article, I’ll dive into some numbers to determine whether Dak is a “buy” or “sell” based on current market demand. 

Career Overview

Prescott was drafted in the 4th round of the 2016 NFL Draft, picked 135th overall. Expectations for the Louisiana native were to compete for the backup role in Dallas. However, Dak was quickly thrust into the spotlight when Tony Romo suffered a compression fracture in Week 3 of the Preseason. Prescott didn’t take long to prove his worth, as he led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record and an NFC East title in his rookie season. He finished the year with 3,949 yards of total offense (passing and rushing), 29 total TDs, and just four INTs. These results were good enough for a QB7 overall finish in 2016. 

Since his rookie season, the Dallas play-caller has been a QB1 caliber player when healthy. He has been a QB1 in four of five healthy seasons (Dak was out for much of 2020 with a compound ankle fracture and missed weeks 2-6 with a thumb injury this past season). Dak will only be 30 years old this upcoming season, so he has plenty of games ahead of him. Barring any significant injuries or a massive drop in production, it’s not unreasonable to expect the seven-year veteran to remain a starter in the NFL for another seven seasons. 

Prescott signed a four-year $160M contract in 2021 with Dallas. He has two years left on his contract, so at minimum, he should be the Cowboys starting QB through 2024. And frankly, I expect him to be there much longer. Jerry Jones is a big Dak Prescott fan, and so is his son, Stephen Jones. The VP said in February that Dak could stay with the franchise for the next ten years. 

2022 Season

The 2022 season was one I’m sure Prescott owners would rather forget. Dak played in 12 games and finished at the QB18 overall. He was mediocre across the board, finishing 13th in pass yards per game, 12th in QBR, 15th in passer rating, and 14th in completion percentage. He also finished with 15 interceptions, tied for most in the NFL. (Again, this was in just 12 games. Yikes.)

Now, let’s look at some advanced metrics for the past season. First, Dak was excellent in the red zone, leading the league in completion percentage and accuracy rating within the 20-yard line. Most touchdowns originate from red zone plays, so this kind of efficiency is something you love to see out of your QB. (According to a study done by Sharp Football Analysis, 66.3% of all passing touchdowns from 2010-2020 came from the red zone.)

The rest of Dak’s 2022 season analytics were average outside red zone efficiency. He was 19th in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), 13th in accuracy rating, and 22nd in true completion percentage. Prescott’s Value Over Stream (VOS), which calculates a player’s fantasy points per game above waiver wire replacement, was 1.6 PPG. (This was good for 87th amongst all QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs in 2022.) There’s no question you expect more than this kind of production from a guy drafted at the 1-2 turn in many Superflex startups last year. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes was fifth overall in VOS at 7.5 PPG. 

Dak was much better in a clean pocket last season, finishing 4th in clean pocket percentage at 73.1% and just 25th in pressured completion percentage at 35.2%. He struggled under pressure, but luckily he was well-protected last season. The Cowboys’ offensive line finished 5th in protection rate at 88.2%, which measures how often a QB is hurried to throw the ball in under 3.0 seconds. They were also 4th in sack rate and 3rd in adjusted sack rate. 

So what will this offensive line look like heading into 2023? The Cowboys lost LG Connor McGovern in free agency and signed G/T Chuma Edoga, who spent much of the past two seasons as a backup. OT Terrance Steele suffered a torn ACL in December. OT Tyron Smith missed much of 2022 due to injury, and the 8x Pro Bowler will turn 33 next season. So there are some question marks with the offensive line going into the future. We’ll see if Jerry Jones and the Cowboys decide to invest in additional protection for Dak in this year’s NFL Draft.

Dynasty Value

I pulled Superflex player rankings from three sources to determine where Dak’s Dynasty value is now. The sources included Fantasy Flock, Sleeper, and our team at DFF. These power rankings include incoming 2023 rookies:

Prescott’s average value is the 12th overall QB and 22nd overall player heading into the 2023 season. As mentioned, this is nearly a full round later than where Dak was going in 2022 startup drafts. This value resembles rookie QBs Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson. So you can likely go out and get Prescott for a 2023 pick in the 1.02-1.04 range. 

Last season’s metrics suggest Prescott is not an efficient passer, but his surrounding cast elevates his Dynasty stock to fringe-QB1 levels. While passing volume was down for Dak in 2022 (33 pass attempts per game versus 37 per game in 2019 and 2021), Dallas was fourth in the NFL in points per game at 26.8 PPG. So the elite offense makes up for his shortfalls and then some. Sure, a lot of those points were produced on the ground. But at the end of the day, I’m just looking at scoring opportunities, and Dallas had plenty of that. 

Conclusion

While Precott’s current market price is fair, roster construction and league setup will ultimately tell you whether he’s worth buying. If you’re a 2023 contender and one QB away from making a legitimate run at a championship, Dak could be worth buying at this price tag. He has a safe floor and is only 29, so you won’t need to find his replacement anytime soon. 

If you are in a 6-point passing TD league, I’d be happy to grab Dak at the current price. Dak has transitioned into a pocket passer since 2018, so we should expect minimal fantasy production from the ground. This league format should push Dak’s value up, especially in this offense. Dallas was 3rd in the NFL in pace of play last season, with 2.23 snaps per minute of offensive possession. They should continue to have ample opportunity to score through the air next year. 

If you’re a rebuilding team, I would be open to selling Dak at the right price, but I wouldn’t be actively looking to move off of him. He has the longevity, job security, and floor/ceiling combination to fit any team strategy. If your team is years away from competing, I’d be more willing to trade for that 1.02-1.04 pick. (I’d also ask for a future second or third-round pick.) Another example of a trade I’d be comfortable with would be selling Dak for Kenny Pickett and an early 2023 second. You get a younger QB with team investment and can pick up a quality skill player, or maybe even a Will Levis if he falls that far in your rookie draft. Just be sure not to sell Prescott for a discount. He is still a quality asset, with plenty of fantasy production ahead of him. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding