Rookie Analysis
Over the last few weeks, I revealed wide receivers 15-6 in my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. You can find 15-11 here and 10-6 here. This article covers the top five prospects before draft capital is figured in. I will publish a final version of the WR1 after the draft is complete so be on the lookout for that.
Today I want to discuss one of the most polarizing Superflex prospects of the 2023 incoming rookie class – Anthony Richardson (QB-Florida). There appears to be no in-between with how the fantasy community views AR15, he’s either the best QB of this rookie class or will be a total bust. I have planted my flag on the latter side, and am here to explain why.
DFF TV presents “Always Be Building” featuring @bwinknfl and @puma_drew. This ~FREE~ edition expands the discussion to Will Levis vs. Anthony Richardson.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
DFF TV presents “Always Be Building” featuring @bwinknfl and @puma_drew. This ~FREE~ edition dives into the Bryce Young vs. CJ Stroud debate.
In this ~FREE~ edition of DFF TV, @WillieBeamanDFF breaks down a 10-team Dynasty Football Superflex Rookie Mock Draft!
I’ve either played or coached football for over 20 years, and my experience enters how I evaluate NFL Draft prospects. What can I trust him to do? In general, the number one thing a coach values the most in a person/player is trust. It isn’t athleticism or size. The KOP rankings will help you understand why a person struggles in the NFL or why a particular player isn’t receiving more playing time. It will allow you to move off a specific player earlier than most people in the Dynasty Fantasy Football space. For example, while most managers hoped for O.J. Howard to produce as a TE1 in his sophomore or third season; you have already traded him away.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a highly accurate proprietary forecasting formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
We’ve all heard the analysis and comps on Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Zach Charbonnet. The consensus in the Dynasty community is that these guys should be the first three running backs off the board in rookie drafts. But where do we go from here? First, the landing spot and draft capital will drastically influence where these prospects should fall in our rankings. But there are still plenty of resources and data points at our disposal now that we can use to determine rookie value: college tape, analytics, NFL Combine results, and plenty more. So, let’s dig into one of my favorite “mid-tier” prospects in this year’s draft, Tank Bigsby.
Can’t you feel the excitement as we get closer to the draft? With free agency winding down, we now start to see the core of what each of these NFL teams will look like when we get into the fall. There is still one more piece to the puzzle though and if you play dynasty then it is probably amongst your favorite NFL events of the year—the NFL Draft. While I have learned not to take too much from the landing spot, I think many of us are still hurting from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. It does have an impact though and we would be foolish to ignore it. I find the best practice is to have everyone divided into tiers before the NFL Draft, then move players within a tier instead of jumping them an entire tier based on landing spot. We also have draft capital to consider but that is beyond the scope of what we will be discussing today. Let’s dig in!
Hello again! Today, I want to project where I think some offensive skill position players are going to land in the first round of The NFL Draft. Some may be wishful thinking but I’m trying to stay objective.
Marvin Mims burst onto the scene as a freshman at Oklahoma with a stellar season of 610 yards and nine touchdowns. This put him squarely into the conversation as one of the top wide receivers in the 2023 draft class. Mims is a big play threat. His 20.1 yards per reception were the third most in the country for 2023. For PPR formats, he is not the most desirable archetype of a wide receiver. His reception totals are relatively low and this can lead to inconsistency in his game-to-game performance. In dynasty best ball formats he is of more interest.
At DFF our motto is #AlwaysBeBuilding. While that pertains to dynasty it also pertains to offering our members more benefits for their subscription. With that, I introduce you to DFF’s rookie draft Average Draft Position (ADP) resource. This will be available as a quick reference under the resources drop-down menu. You can directly link to it here.
It’s combine week! Time for all of our favorite prospects to compete in the underwear olympics. If you talk to different people, you will get different answers on just how meaningful the combine is. NFL scouts look for traits and this helps them determine that on a comparable scale. Here are the biggest winners from this week in Indianapolis and how it effects your preparation for dynasty rookie drafts.
Throughout this article you will see a tool called the Relative Athletic Score. This is a wonderful tool created by Kent Lee Platte to provide an overall size adjusted athleticism score utilizing inputs from combine results. It runs on a scale from 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest. Give him a follow on Twitter @mathbomb.
When analyzing wide receiver prospects, analysts such as myself, like to check boxes when a player eclipses a designated threshold for a certain metric. No prospect in this class checked more of these boxes across all metrics than Josh Downs. Downs was an uber-producer during his time at Chapel Hill. When Sam Howell or Drake Maye needed a big play, Downs was the unquestioned target. In this article, I will take you through the numbers and display why you should be targeting Josh Downs in your dynasty rookie drafts.
We’re two weeks from the combine and on the last leg of my trip around the rookie prospects by ranking tight ends. TE is the most frustrating position in fantasy to scout and find any kind of production. My regular data dump from our DFF Data Guru @ChrisMiles1017 will be left out for this reason and we’ll stick to the film until we get Combine numbers.
At this point in the off-season, I prefer to write articles on prospects that aren’t in that elite tier so that DFF members have a value-added when reading. After all most have likely heard quite enough about the top prospects in the class to make their decision one way or the other. For that reason, I haven’t done a deep profile on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In my mind, he is a no-brainer prospect.
One of the most polarizing prospects in the 2023 draft class is Ole Miss running back Zach Evans. Today, we will use my personal prospect grading model to evaluate Evans as a prospect and see what kind of player he might become in the NFL.
One of the most respected draft experts, Lance Zierlein, set off a Twitter firestorm this week when he placed Jalin Hyatt as his first wide receiver off the board, 12th overall, in his first mock draft.
He states:
“Let me first start off by saying I believe this draft is very similar to the 2016 draft in terms of wideouts. I didn’t see any WR as a true WR1 for a team. Here was how I graded them. Obviously, Mike Thomas ended up being a dude but the rest? Here is how I had it (old scale)”
The Senior Bowl has come and gone and we move one step further in our off-season process. Thankfully, I’m one step closer in my own rookie evaluations with my first look at the 2023 rookie receiver class. We’ll use film analysis numerical data from the regular season and look at using KPIs based on DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell is consistent with the new wave of undersized wide receivers recently ushered into the NFL. Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Rondale Moore, and Elijah Moore are redefining what it means to be a “prototype” wide receiver. Route running and the ability to create separation are being prioritized over physical size.
Rookie scouting season is here and everyone is starting to research and prep for their rookie drafts. In this series, I will go through my process and scout different players for the incoming 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Tulane running back, Tyjae Spears.
Each year I use an established analytical process (The WR1 Model) to forecast who the future dynasty elite wide receivers will be. You can find a detailed explanation of the process here. While some of the nine metrics utilized in the model (relative athletic score, film grade, and draft capital) are not yet finalized, we can begin to get a picture of who the players you want to target are.
We’ve officially passed the NFL draft declaration date and we know who exactly our fresh batch of rookie picks will be. That means no more Twitter speculation and narratives about who will declare. (Looking at you Stroud.) Sure it’s a little early to rank without draft capital. Luckily, we have plenty of numerical data from the regular season we can look at using KPIs based from DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Florida quarterback, Anthony Richardson.