Dynasty Analysis
Mock drafts are a place to let your wildest ideas play out in hopes of developing a new strategy for how to attack your 2020 drafts. In this 12-team redraft mock, I selected out of the 10th spot. I chose this spot because I typically don’t like to draft from the end. So, to be as prepared as possible, I wanted to see what kind of team I could come up with selecting at the end of this snake draft. Going into the draft I did not have a set plan on what I wanted to do other than to choose who I felt was the best available player on the board regardless of position. This process turned into a zero-RB approach, which I have never endorsed or tried previously. So join me as I venture into the always polarizing strategy of the zero-RB.
The defensive scheme change in Dallas could be quite shocking to Cowboys’ fans. Mike Nolan’s body of work combined with recent experience in the Saints’ hybrid system as a linebackers coach should yield a more varied and complex defense than fans have known. Not only will we miss preseason action to see a preview of this defense, but also beat writers are prohibited from reporting players’ alignments during training camp. 2020 will provide more surprises than ever for IDP aficionados and this in a time when defenses are ever more multiple. September 13, 2020, will be the most astonishing day of football in a long time!
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. In my first article, I wrote about Hayden Hurst and how he represents a value. Additionally, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Let’s jump into my second player, Sony Michel. I’ve come a long way on Michel since I buried him in my “Dead to Me” series. Well, that isn’t entirely true, but let’s get into exactly how I feel about Michel since it’s a complicated story.
Everyone wants the hot new thing. As kids, we all wanted the brand new toy for Christmas and turned our noses up at the pairs of socks we sometimes got instead. Now that we are adults we want the cool new sports car instead of the pre-owned Honda. It’s the same in fantasy football. Everybody wants to be the guy who drafts the young running back who vaults himself into the first round next year. We all target those third-year wide receivers looking for that elusive breakout. But you know what? Those socks are a good present. They get the job done and you use them all the time. That pre-owned Honda is reliable and doesn’t cost an arm and a leg to maintain. You can find similar values every year in fantasy football. No one in your draft room will let out a sigh of relief when you take one of these guys, but they’ll get the job done for you. These are the used cars and Christmas socks of the 2020 fantasy season. I present to you 2020 All-Uglies.
Warring fits the specifications of a fantasy football “sleeper” candidate like a glove. He has the willingness and competitiveness to handle run-blocking duties, and the talent to line up in the slot. Versatility is valuable in the NFL. If Warring wins the primary TE job for the Texans, he should be capable of staying on the field for the majority of the snaps. Having just turned 23 this offseason, any role Kahale carves out this coming season should be maintained, with the potential for growth into more opportunities, provided he stays healthy. He can be acquired late in drafts or for very minimal assets via trade in most dynasty leagues, and may even be available on waivers in a few.
It never ceases to amaze me that the majority of people will continue to buy “brand names” items, regardless of the price. This holds true in nearly all facets of society and even extends to fantasy football. Jamison Crowder is not a brand name item. Crowder played in all 16 games last season, starting 12. He led the Jets in targets (122), catches (78), receiving yards (833), and receiving touchdowns (6). Crowder was also quarterback Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver and served as his reliable safety net time and time again.
The Raiders have one of the muddiest receiving groups in the NFL, with a quagmire of options. Based on their dynasty values, I’ll take a look at all the receiving options and give you the smart bet for 2020 and beyond. I already broke down the entire Raiders’ offense for redraft purposes, but I want to take more of a dynasty slant, focusing on the receiving group.
Brown is currently being drafted at the 3.06 in dynasty startups, making him the WR14. An interesting check is to compare a player’s dynasty ADP versus their re-draft ADP which can sometimes indicate where dynasty players are overvaluing youth. In redraft leagues, Brown is 4.08 which is the WR17. This indicates that Brown is expected to have a strong 2020 season, paired with only being 23 years old makes him a top tier dynasty asset.
Tyler Boyd’s Dynasty Profile is loaded with impressive stats and metrics. He had the sixth-best dominator rating at 36.4% among power five true freshman receivers since 2000. Boyd finished his college career at Pitt with 254 catches for 3,361 yards and 21 TDs. He was drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft by the Cincinnati Bengals after his junior season.
Carson Wentz has been an excellent real-life quarterback after his rookie year, throwing at least three times as many touchdowns as interceptions each season. In 2017, Wentz had an MVP-type season for the 13 games he played, dominating the NFL and leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record in his starts. Unfortunately, Wentz tore his ACL near the end of 2017, causing him to miss the Eagles’ Super Bowl run.
In part one of Auction Draft Dos and Don’ts we discussed how tiers should guide your auction drafting strategy over specific targets. Here in part two, we’ll go over how to stay focused during your draft and why mock drafts aren’t as helpful when preparing for an auction. Dominate your auction draft with the help of these dos and don’ts!
Best ball is a fantasy football format that’s all about your favorite part of the fantasy season: the draft. You simply draft an expanded roster, usually somewhere between 18 and 25 players, and that’s it. You will not set weekly lineups, place waiver claims, or send trade offers. Instead, your optimal lineup is generated each week after all the games have been played. You score points based on that optimal lineup, and, at the end of the season, the team with the most points wins.
Let’s start with a simple, unequivocal, and in-no-way subjective fact: auction drafts are the best drafts. Auction drafts are more fun, they reward savvy fantasy players more than snake drafts, and they allow you to grab any player you’re willing to break the bank for. But how do you make the most of your bankroll and come away with a winning team? Here’s what to do… and what NOT to do.
In a dynasty story, I’ll look at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. In my first dynasty story, I covered Mike Williams. While Williams has had somewhat of a roller coaster first three NFL seasons, it’s nothing compared to the next player’s journey. It’s time for a deep dive into Kenyan Drake.
typical fantasy owner is often wary of players that they haven’t seen produce in the NFL or those that don’t have “name value.” Rookies are often under drafted in most redraft leagues since they don’t have prior NFL stats. Also, players that put up decent stats but stayed off the fantasy radar can represent good sleepers. In this case, the goal is to exploit an information gap between informed and casual fantasy owners.
To keep things consistent, I will follow a particular format in this series. I’ll begin by discussing the player’s past production and history, focusing on their prior stats in the NFL and, in some cases, their draft profile. Then, I’ll move into why that player is a sleeper, specifically looking at and debunking negative narratives around that player. And finally, I’ll move into their expected 2020 outlook, and where I would draft the player on my redraft teams.
With that all out of the way, let’s get into my first sleeper, Hayden Hurst.
Anthony Miller was unstoppable at the University of Memphis. Breaking out in his sophomore year, he amassed over 3,500 years in three seasons. His best coming in his junior year where he had an absurd 96 catches, 1,462 yards, and 18 touchdowns. Miller was good enough to be drafted in the 2nd round by the Chicago Bears in the 2018 draft. Pegged as a guy who could be a massive star, Miller has been a little bit forgotten in the Bears offense since his arrival. In his rookie season, Miller grabbed 33 receptions for 423 yards and an impressive 7 touchdowns. As a result, he was a popular 2nd-year breakout candidate but he actually wound up finishing about the same for fantasy purposes in his second year.
For this article, I’m going to focus on regular weekly DFS contests, like FanDuel and DraftKings. Although there are other DFS formats, I feel that those weekly contests have unique takeaways and provide the most value for dynasty owners. Also, they are the most popular style of DFS, so they provide the broadest reach. I’ll split this article into the two main types of weekly DFS: cash games and GPP contests.
Back in April, I wrote about Rob Gronkowski’s return to the NFL, as he came out of retirement to join the Buccaneers. While Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends of all time, the Buccaneers already had a solid young tight end in O.J. Howard. They even have a third tight end, Cameron Brate, who’s found fantasy relevance at times throughout his career. The question is: what should dynasty owners do with Howard now? Is he a buy low, or should you avoid him? Let’s jump into how to handle Howard going forward.
It only took one game for Washington to know they made the right decision drafting Terry McLaurin 76th overall in 2019. He burst onto the scene to the tune of five catches for 125 yards and one touchdown. There were the usual ups and downs of a rookie season, but out of 14 games played, McLaurin finished with eight double-digit fantasy games landing at WR24 in standard and WR29 in PPR.
Jamal Adams deserves to get paid. Is he worth the $20 million-plus a year he’s rumored to be seeking though? Today’s top-paid safeties don’t even make $15 million a year. The Jets say they want to make Adams a Jet for life, but they don’t seem motivated to sign Adams to any long term deals and why would they. From a business standpoint, it doesn’t make sense for the team. They still have him on contract, for much less, for the next two years. This has led to a lot of friction between the sides though and Adams has asked for a trade. His seven preferred destinations were the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboy, 49ers, Texans, Chiefs, and the Seahawks. Some of these teams seem a little more feasible than others to me.
In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. The links to the full set of previous entries are at the bottom of this article. It’s time to jump into DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football over the past few years. But what has he truly brought to fantasy owners? There’s only one way to find out.
At first glance, nothing jumps off the page when reviewing Russell Gage’s season-long body of work to this point in his NFL career (or even in his college career for that matter). After shipping off a deteriorating Mohamed Sanu for a 2021 second-round pick in a rare fleecing of New England, the Falcons coaching staff put their trust in Gage to take over the team’s third receiver position. Gage enjoyed a 16% target share after taking over for Sanu, as his average offensive snaps per game increased from 12 to 48. He finished the season with 49 catches for 446 yards and one TD (but in the nine games post-Sanu he had 45 catches for 402 yards and one TD).
Before 2019, Matthew Stafford appeared in every game for the Detroit Lions for eight consecutive seasons. In those seasons, Stafford averaged 4,465 yards and 27.5 TDs. The Lions finished 2nd, 1st, 5th, 10th, 5th, 10th, 10th, and 13th in pass attempts during that span. Stafford was playing some of his best football in 2019 under current OC Darrell Bevell, albeit in a partial season. Through eight games, Stafford was on pace to finish as the fantasy QB2 with 4,998 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 INTs.
In dynasty leagues, one of the toughest decisions that fantasy owners make is whether they are a true contender or not. Continuing to try and contend when you need to rebuild will set your dynasty team back for years. Therefore, it’s crucial to be able to take an objective look at your team, from top to bottom, and decide where you are.
Back in 2018, DJ Moore entered the NFL as a top wide receiver (WR) prospect. Posting impressive age-adjusted production at Maryland. He led the Terrapins passing attack during his breakout sophomore season at the age of 19. By the end of his career, Moore easily exceeded important production thresholds like career average scrimmage yards per play, receiving yards market share, and receiving yards per team pass attempt. D.J. Moore’s outstanding age-adjusted college production combined with elite athleticism, prototypical NFL size, and first-round draft capital made him an exciting WR prospect.