Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 5
Well, that was easy. Fortunately, Ben Roethlisberger also only threw for only 239 yards despite leading Chase Claypool to the breakout game of the season. We missed out on a perfect week by two freakin’ yards as Malcolm Brown put up 30 out of his 31.5. Still, 2-1 is at least on the right track and we’ll look to maintain that momentum again this week to make up for some early season struggles.
I’m dedicated to hitting on at least one of these longshot bets this season, so I’m paying extra-close attention to that this week.
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 6-9
Longshot: 0-5
Lamar Jackson Under 227.5 Passing Yards (-112)
In a similar vein to last week’s Roethlisberger bet, I’m also taking the under on the Eagles’ Week 6 opponent. I won’t rehash my entire spiel but, basically, the Eagles have not let up many passing yards to their opponents this year. Moreover, Jackson hasn’t cleared this total since Week 1, and hasn’t thrown for over 200 passing yards since Week 2.
I’m a Ravens fan, and I say take the Ravens’ spread (-8.5) in what should be a comfortable game. That being said, I would not expect Jackson to have a great game…
Mark Andrews Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
But, the same can not be said for Mark Andrews. Andrews, on the other hand, should have a great game this week. I said it as a guest on the Bets Unwrapped Podcast (shameless plug for my boy @Cmoney52) but Philly has been gashed by tight ends this year. Take a look at what the Eagles have allowed to tight ends so far:
- Logan Thomas – 4 receptions, 37 yards, 1 touchdown
- Tyler Higbee – 5 receptions, 54 yards, 3 touchdowns
- Drew Sample – 1 reception, 1 yard
- George Kittle – 15 receptions (!!), 183 yards, 1 touchdown
- Eric Ebron – 5 receptions, 43 yards
Admittedly, the Drew Sample game was not good but that is clearly an outlier. Mark Andrews boasts a 25.8% target share and is always involved in the offense. While the passes may not go for many yards, Andrews should make multiple receptions against a susceptible Eagles’ defense.
Nick Foles Over 22.5 Completions (-125)
Let’s focus on something other than the Ravens game this week, shall we?
I might still be in awe of this Foles throw from last week. So much so that I was desperate to find a Foles prop to hang my hat on this week. While his touchdown and yardage totals scared me off a bit, I think I found a gem in his completion totals.
Foles has not been shy about slinging the ball since taking over as quarterback for the Bears. He has thrown for 42 attempts in each of his past two games and tossed 29 additional attempts in the second half of the Week 3 matchup against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Carolina boasts the second-worst DVOA ranked defense this year and has allowed at least 21 completions in every game they’ve played. I think this will be far more of a shootout than most expect it to be (currently the second-lowest total of the week) and Foles should eclipse this total comfortably.
Week 5 Longshot Pick
Adam Thielen to score First Touchdown (+750)
There are just so many factors pointing to Adam Thielen scoring this week. Thielen is tied for first in receiving touchdowns on the year. The Falcons are giving up three passing touchdowns a game to their opponents, tied for worst in the league. Thielen leads his team in target percentage and red zone targets.
Obviously, the much safer play is an anytime touchdown for (-112). But, with stats like this backing you up, why not go for the gold and bet for him to score first?
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
