Dynasty Analysis
On August 31st, I had the pleasure of drafting against eleven brilliant fantasy minds for the DFF Redraft Championship, a PPR league with 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 2Flex, and 1D/ST as starters and 7 bench slots. We spent the night sniping one another and trash-talking on Zoom, which was a ton of fun. When all was said and done, I was thrilled with my team, so let’s take a closer look at how the draft played out.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Each and every week, I’ll be covering a handful of players that I believe will either exceed expectations or let your team down in a major way. Here’s who you should be looking at for Week 2.
The Vikings defense was… well… terrible on Sunday. Minnesota gave up 43 points and 522 yards at home against the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings defensive backs are young and inexperienced, which puts a lot of pressure on veterans like Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, and Anthony Barr. Expect extra IDP opportunities for the Vikings as they struggle with coverage.
In Week 1, superstar Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas suffered a “high ankle injury.” While details have come out slowly, the Saints now expect Thomas potentially to miss multiple weeks, and they could place him on injured reserve. If Thomas goes to IR, he will miss three games. At the very least, Thomas will almost certainly miss the Saints’ Monday night game against the Raiders. Whether he plays or not, you likely can’t rely on him because he will be a game-time decision on Monday night. If you have Thomas, I would hope he sits out and doesn’t try to play through it. Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara had the same injury in 2019 and came back too quickly. You don’t want Thomas to do the same and miss the rest of 2020.
I do it, you do it, we all do it. As a professional school counselor, it’s a state of mind I am very familiar with, a state of mind that is as natural as breathing. And that’s overreacting. Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season was full of surprises, some of which left many scratching their heads and second-guessing their carefully crafted starting line up decisions. For every week that brings knee-jerk reactions to player success and failure, I’ll be here to provide sound, logical reasoning to either support your beliefs or encourage you to adopt a more objective narrative. Because, after all, that’s what a good counselor does. Let’s dive in:
In our weekly buy/sell piece, @DynastyWalrus and @DFF_Ztrain will break down multiple players that you should consider buying and selling to improve your roster. We will give you a breakdown of their usage on the field, and statistics to provide a unique outlook on the best moves for your team to make. Join us weekly as we help you wheel and deal your way to a fantasy championship! This week we’ll look at DJ Chark, Anthony Miller, Nick Chubb, James Conner, Joshua Kelley, and Sammy Watkins.
With week one in the books, I am back to give you another player to keep in mind for your dynasty roster. This is not a waiver column. Each week I will try and bring you names off the beaten track that you can put on the end of your bench or just keep an eye on. Last week’s choice was Jakobi Meyers and while he went catch-less last week. The Patriots offense will continue to grow. Keep him on the watch list. This week I bring you another wide receiver no one is talking about and that is Javon Wims.
The AFC East, once home to Tom Brady and a perennial Super Bowl contender, now looking like a bit of a mess. It’s even worse when looking at it from a fantasy perspective. As fate would have it, they all played each other to kick off the 2020 NFL season, so let’s dive into some dynasty player nuggets!
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. With that said, let’s jump right in!
So the Jaguars… aren’t… tanking? Welcome to sports betting, where a team that has jettisoned off all of its talent somehow overcomes all odds to beat a team that went all-in on 2020. I’m sure I’m not the only one that got burned by Minshew Magic if my survivor pools are any indication. But, it still doesn’t take the sting out of it. At least we had a nice rebound with Washington pulling off the upset over a banged-up Eagles team. They’re not done yet, with defensive end Vinny Curry also suffering a significant injury. This will be a year to forget for Philadelphia. Overall we went 9-7-0, which isn’t the best but certainly not the worst. We will try to build on that this week.
In Sunday night’s game between the Cowboys and the Rams, Blake Jarwin suffered a season-ending ACL tear. I want to break down the impact from both a dynasty and a redraft perspective. Specifically, let’s look at each affected Cowboys’ player.
MVS’s ownership comes in just over 40% but we’ll include him anyway as he’s on just about all my redraft waiver wires. The Packers have been searching far and wide to assist Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams but we’re never sure who it will be. MVS could finally be separating himself from the pack (no pun intended). He finished Week 1 with four receptions on six targets for 96 yards and a 45-yard touchdown. The Packer’s deep threat should be at the top of your waiver list if receivers are needed.
Welcome back to Dynasty Football Factory’s weekly in-season column, Raiding the IDP Waiver Wire! I write tonight with feelings of relief and exaltation that the NFL has returned to the field with a product we recognize well. I’m excited to see how much my off-season work will prove predictive for the season! I’ve never experienced a Week 1 with more uncertainty regarding defensive schemes and players’ roles within them. The lack of preseason games has made this week of football a wrapped gift containing contents about which we could only dare to forecast.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage. I also want to provide added value for each type of streamer this season. I’ll highlight any players from 50-60% owned in each section if they’re superior options to both of my streaming candidates at that specific position. Those players are “probably owned,” but they could be out there in 10-team or shallower formats. I won’t offer analysis on these players, just the names and matchups.
If neither of my two suggested streamers is under 25% ownership percentage, I will give a “super-deep” option. That feature should help those owners playing in deeper leagues with few waiver-wire options. Like the “probably owned” players, I’ll list the players without analysis. I realize that all leagues are different, and I want to accommodate all of my readers.
Rookies generally don’t get much action early on in the season, especially rookie wide receivers drafted in the fifth round like Isaiah Mckenzie. Not only is he a rookie but he must compete against Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley for playing time. Yet, he still got it. McKenzie caught all of his three targets for 17 yards in his NFL debut. No, nothing eye-popping in the stats there but the fact that he received those opportunities already is all I need to know. I was surprised to find him on a number of waiver wires in my dynasty leagues.
n Week 1, Darrel played 33% of the offensive snaps, compared to 67% for Edwards-Helaire. Most notably, Thompson didn’t play a single offensive snap, making it clear that Darrel is the direct backup to Edwards-Helaire. Unfortunately, Edwards-Helaire had 25 carries compared to only seven for Darrel, a larger split than most expected. I believed the Chiefs would ease Edwards-Helaire into the starter’s role at the beginning of the season, but they handed him a full workload from Day 1.
All offseason, we’ve debated what the Rams will do as an offense. I think they told us their long-term plan with Kupp’s extension. The Rams gave Kupp a 3-year, $48 million contract extension, tying him to the Rams through 2023. Based on that deal, the Rams see Kupp as part of their long-term plans and as one of their key offensive weapons. Let’s break down the dynasty impact on each of the Rams’ players.
Continuing the trend of running back extensions, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara both recently received long-term deals. These contracts lock them into Minnesota and New Orleans, respectively, for the foreseeable future. Let’s look at each deal individually and jump into the effects from a dynasty perspective.
Alright, I can hear the objections already from the audience. You’re probably thinking, “why are you wasting my time with a player that’s never done anything useful in the NFL?” Well, if you hold judgment until the end, I’ll explain why you should know about Thomas and why he might factor into your dynasty plans.
Like most deep dynasty stashes, I wouldn’t recommend trading for Hill. He could even be on waiver wires in some leagues, as Smith carries more name recognition than Hill. If you can grab Hill as a throw-in as part of a larger deal or for free, he’s likely my favorite stash right now. Gurley carries such a high injury risk, and Hill’s path to relevant touches is clear.
Is there a more underappreciated WR in the league than Keenan Allen? As far as Old Tom is concerned, that answer is a resounding no. Now, please understand, I’m not saying there aren’t other stud WRs who are also treated poorly, in the fantasy community. What I’m saying is that when you attempt to marry the disrespect with the stat-production, Mr. Keenan takes the cake, in Old Tom’s eyes. One reason, the main reason really, I believe Allen seems to have a tough time knocking off the negative vibes, stems from his year two regression and the following two injury-riddled campaigns. The final straw, unfortunately for many, was the torn ACL suffered in Week 1’s contest back in 2016. What that did was it gave Allen the all so important “injury-prone” tag, that found its justification in the reality of 25 missed games over the course of his team’s previous 34 contests. Ouch! (pun intended)
When it comes to fantasy football, we fall in love every year. During our offseason research, sleepers and favorites emerge. There are guys every season that you just have to have. But how many of those guys actually end up on your team? As buzz grows around your favorite players, ADP becomes your enemy and can end up thwarting your plans. All of a sudden, the guy you were getting in the seventh round of mock drafts all offseason costs you a fourth. You’re not alone. Here is my 2020 exposure report. It contains guys who I have a lot invested in based on where I could get them and some dudes who I wish I could have drafted more often.
In this article, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Week 1 is finally here! We’ve got 12 games on the main slate (the 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST time slots), which means a ton of players to sort through. I’ll be breaking it down one matchup at a time, sharing my thoughts on player prices* and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here. With all of that out of the way, let’s dive in!
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.