Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals,’ ‘first player to score,’ and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week.” This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props, take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 6
A second straight week of 2-1 finishes leaves us with some positive momentum for what feels like the first time this season. Even if Nick Foles only went over by one completion, who’s counting? Let’s keep this up moving forward.
Our longshot pick was close, as Thielen did score for anyone wise enough to follow and take him for anytime touchdown, but we’re still lacking our first longshot of the season. Very disappointing but I’ll own it.
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 8-10
Longshot: 0-6
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards
I know Mahomes says he can’t run 80 yards, but let’s talk about Mahomes’ rushing ability for a minute. These are his rushing lines since Week 2 of the season:
- 6-54
- 4-26
- 8-28
- 6-21
- 10-36
Now, admittedly most of this has been scrambling from the pocket and not designed runs. However, Mahomes is getting plenty of opportunities each and every week to show off his wheels. With a total like 22.5, all it takes is one long scramble on third down to get you most of the way there. With the opportunity and talent both there, I’ll confidently take the over on this one.
(Mahomes to score anytime touchdown also just barely misses out on our longshot odds requirement at +285, but why not take a flier on that as well?)
Matt Ryan Over 24.5 Completions (-117)
I have been notoriously anti-Matty Ice this season, but this week he gets a matchup that should make everyone forget about his recent struggles as a passer. While the Lions’ defense has actually been decent against the pass so far this year, they are short-handed this week as starting cornerback Desmond Trufant has already been declared Out after missing the past two weeks of practice with a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, Julio Jones is active for the Falcons and fresh off a dominant Week 6 performance against the Vikings. Matt Ryan looked like a different quarterback with Julio in the lineup, going 30/40 for 371 yards and four touchdowns. While Ryan’s yardage total is a bit high for my taste (310.5), he should easily eclipse 24.5 completions against a now-suspect Lions’ defense.
Frank Gore Under 40.5 Rushing Yards
I almost have to bet against a Jets player, don’t I?
Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Frank Gore. And I do not believe in this Bills defense that has inspired some pretty fun memes on Twitter. But, I think it’s time to admit we’re seeing a changing of the guard.
While Gore did log four more carries than La’Mical Perine, he was out-snapped 41-25 by the rookie from Florida. Gase has also spoken of getting backup Ty Johnson involved after he ran for 42 yards on only three carries. Gore’s yardage has always been connected to his volume, and if that continues to shrink, I don’t see him accumulating more than 40 yards against a Bills team that will likely be up early and big.
Week 7 Longshot Pick
Kareem Hunt First Touchdown Scorer (+475)
Man, without that Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown I am stumped on a longshot bet.
I finally settled on Kareem Hunt to score the first touchdown in the Bengals-Browns matchup this weekend. Hunt leads the team in red-zone touches and has experienced success scoring against the Bengals earlier this year. Even with Chubb playing in Week 2, Hunt still managed to find the endzone twice the last time he faced the Bengals.
The Browns go from facing one of the toughest defenses in the league to a below-average one, so they should score early and often in this one. I’ll roll the dice that Hunt can continue his early-season success against their divisional rival.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
