Six weeks is a long time. Remember last year, when Joe Mixon was RB32 and DJ Chark was WR2 through the first six games? We had seen six weeks of evidence that Mixon was an unquestionable bust and that Chark was the next big thing. Chark had a bit more than double Mixon’s points in standard scoring. If you had traded Chark away for Joe Mixon at that point, let’s just say that some eyebrows would have been raised. That would have been a bold move, but it would have been the right move. Mixon scored 145 to Chark’s 70 standard points from weeks 7-17.
Of course, you’re never going to get the timing right on trades like these. The point here is to be bold. If you believe in a player, go get him. Here are some guys we’re looking to get, and some we’re looking to get rid of.
Zach’s Buy: Higgins, Jefferson, Lamb, Claypool
I know that typically we like to play the buy/sell game like the stock market, you buy low and you sell high. But sometimes you need to buy high because the stock seems like it is destined to go even higher. That is why this week I’m advising you to buy the above four rookies. They have all cemented themselves as the potential alpha on their team through the first six weeks of the 2020 season. Prior to week 6, Lamb was WR 11, Claypool was WR 21, Jefferson was WR 26 and Higgins was WR 39. In week six, Lamb tied the team-high in targets and receptions with his new quarterback, Claypool had 80+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown, Jefferson had 166 yards and two scores, and Higgins had 125 yards receiving.
These four rookies are all in the must-start territory in redraft and have climbed exponentially in dynasty rankings. These rookies won’t come cheap. But, they have proven that they are here to stay and worth the price it will take to acquire them.
Will’s Sell: Carson Wentz
Let’s start with the good news. Wentz just posted 29 points and finished week six as the fourth-best quarterback. He threw two touchdowns, ran for a third, and came within a failed two-point conversion from forcing the Ravens into overtime. On the back of that top-four finish this week, Wentz now sits at QB9 on the season. On the surface, that looks pretty good. Dig a little deeper and you’ll see that Wentz’s season-best game was a disaster for three whole quarters. Wentz had one fumble and zero touchdowns until he finally put it together in the fourth quarter. 29 points is a good day for a fantasy quarterback, but Wentz had a terrible day as an NFL QB.
He completed 21 of his 40, marking the third game out of six in which his completion percentage has been under 60%. He has yet to throw for 300 yards or three TDs in a game. He has nine interceptions and two fumbles lost to only eight TDs on the season. His four rushing touchdowns make his numbers look decent, but do you really want Carson Wentz forcing plays on the ground? I don’t. This is a guy who has gotten hurt when running in the past. If you watch any Eagles game, you see Wentz take off and get crushed because he has almost no weapons. Now Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders are set to miss time.
The upcoming schedule is decent so your window could last a couple of weeks. But, you need to get off of Wentz if you can get value and you need to do it now.
Zach’s Sell: Robert Tonyan
As a die-hard Packers fan, believe me when I tell you that Robert Tonyan is not going to be the next Kittle, at least not in this Packers’ offense. Green Bay rarely uses its tight end and relied heavily upon Tonyan in week five because both of their top two options were out for that game. If you’re able to flip Tonyan for another skill position player you can find just as solid of a replacement on waivers. He will have a nice week or two throughout the rest of the season but to value him as a top 10 TE in 2020 is a big stretch.
Tonyan could develop into a trustworthy tight end for this team but it will not likely be this season. Davante Adams requires a hefty target share when healthy, Allen Lazard will be in the mix, and Rodgers likes throwing to his running backs as well. I think the Packers may have found their TE 1. But, for fantasy, he is a TE 2 the rest of the season.
Will’s Buy: D’Andre Swift
So Zach just told you to sell one of his beloved Packers, but I’m going the other way by recommending (for the second week running) one of my Lions as a buy. Week six brought us the much-anticipated breakout game for Swift. He rushed for 116 yards on 14 carries and scored two touchdowns on the ground. Sure, it was against the Jags, and the only thing Matt Patricia seems to have learned from Bill Belichick is how to infuriate fantasy managers with his running back usage. Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson will continue to get work, but I still believe Swift is a buy based on his upside.
Every year we see a talented rookie running back start slowly before taking over the backfield and becoming a top ten option. Remember Miles Sanders late last year? He scored his first touchdown in week six and was the RB8 in half-PPR from then on. How about Nick Chubb in 2018? He had no more than three carries in each of his first six games before getting 18 touches in week seven. He was RB8 from then on. Can D’Andre Swift be the 2020 version? Even if Patricia insists on staying with the committee approach, Swift can be usable. He was RB18 in week four. He would have been RB12 in week one if he hadn’t dropped that game-winning TD (yes, it still hurts). Swift is worth the gamble.
Zach’s Sell: Mike Evans
Well, this certainly isn’t what we expected after the first six games of 2020. Evans has 281 receiving yards on 23 receptions, and the bright spot is he has six touchdown catches. The touchdowns have saved his fantasy season to this point, but you cannot ignore that in half of his games he has had either one or two receptions. With Godwin returning, Evans’ target share should continue to decrease as he doesn’t appear to be Brady’s number one target. In fact, against Green Bay, his old friend Rob Gronkowski came back to life putting up a 5/78/1 receiving line.
Evans will have a couple more nice games over the course of the season but he will not be putting up his typical WR1 numbers. If you can flip him now, I’d suggest doing it to avoid the week in and week out headache that he will give you this season. I can understand trying to wait it out until his next boom-game to sell but at this rate, it may take a little while for that to come.
Go get your guys! Hopefully you’ll be able to find this year’s Joe Mixon. Will (@Dynastywalrus) and Zach (@DFF_Ztrain) would love to hear from you on Twitter to discuss buys, sells, and anything else fantasy!
