Dynasty Analysis
Last week, I wrote a couple of articles breaking down the early and late games on the Week 6 slate. I picked one dynasty storyline from each contest, and I focused on that topic to give my readers something to watch for during the game. I thought it was a fun, light article, but I also believed it provided actionable and exciting information on those games.
Now, I want to take that idea a step further. I’ll give a complete dynasty breakdown of the upcoming Giants-Eagles Thursday night contest. I want to make sure you all know what to focus on for your dynasty teams. Being prepared before the game will allow you to react quickly and to become a better dynasty owner.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Each and every week, I’ll be covering a handful of players that I believe will either exceed expectations or let your team down in a major way. Here’s who you should be looking at for Week 7. In terms of points per game, Justin Herbert is the QB8. Through four games, Herbert has 10 total TDs, and he’s averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game. You can trust the rookie against Jacksonville’s atrocious defense in Week 7.
On a dreary Tuesday morning in the Boston area on this date October 20, 2020, news broke that changed not just the state of the New England Patriots, or the AFC East, but the entire NFL. Heading into a Week 8 bye, the Miami Dolphins have named Tua Tagovailoa their starting quarterback. Tagovailoa saw his first game action during a two-minute drill, in which the Dolphins handled the New York Jets with little to no opposition. The Miami Dolphins have been searching for a long-term answer at quarterback ever since the retirement of Dan Marino, and now there is optimism on South Beach, the cause of this optimism: It’s Tua Time.
Six weeks is a long time. Remember last year, when Joe Mixon was RB32 and DJ Chark was WR2 through the first six games? We had seen six weeks of evidence that Mixon was an unquestionable bust and that Chark was the next big thing. Chark had a bit more than double Mixon’s points in standard scoring. If you had traded Chark away for Joe Mixon at that point, let’s just say that some eyebrows would have been raised. That would have been a bold move, but it would have been the right move. Mixon scored 145 to Chark’s 70 standard points from weeks 7-17.
Of course, you’re never going to get the timing right on trades like these. The point here is to be bold. If you believe in a player, go get him. Here are some guys we’re looking to get, and some we’re looking to get rid of.
Week 6 is in the books, and we are barrelling toward the midpoint of the NFL season. I am back to help you fill out the back end of your roster. Once again, this is not a waiver wire column, these are players that you could add now or wait and watch. My goal is to make you aware of some players off the beaten path. This week we are looking into the New Orleans Saints receiving corps with an electric player out of Assumption College, a 2019 All-Pro, and a Pro Bowler in Year 1. Deonte Harris is a 5’6” WR/Returner that could be a sparkplug type player for the Saints in the future.
Aaron Rodgers burst back into the dynasty scene over the first four weeks of the season. Rodgers put up nine touchdowns and no interceptions over the first quarter of the season. That changed in week six where he did not register a touchdown and put up two interceptions including one pick-six, only the third such play of his career. Rodgers has re-established himself as a top 10 quarterback for dynasty formats as he likely has anywhere from 3-5 years left in the league. He has shown he can continue to play at a very high level and can be a big-time contributor for your squad.
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
Week 6 was not kind. We went a (im)perfect .500 last week and, if I’m not mistaken, went 1-2 on our in-depth picks for the first time since Week 1 of the season. Only the Jets came through for us last week, as they always do. I definitely should have listened to Biscuits who is now 5-1 this season!!!
We are still 52-38 overall and have gone 11-7 with our in-depth picks, however, so our year is still off to a good start. Let’s keep the momentum building with this week’s picks!
Raheem Mostert suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 6. Unfortunately, this injury is notoriously difficult to overcome, and Mostert will likely require a trip to the injured reserve. Mostert already missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a knee injury, so this is his second significant injury of the 2020 season.
I’m not sure when Mostert will return, but it’s safe to say that he will miss extended time. Given that he’s already had one injury this season, I have significant concerns about whether Mostert will come back for any meaningful portion of the fantasy season. Mostert must miss Weeks 7-9 after going on injured reserve, and I can’t imagine the 49ers will push him back in Week 10 with a Week 11 bye.
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation. Trey Burton has re-emerged as a fantasy-relevant tight end. The Colts have a cluttered tight end room but Mo Alie-Cox’s injury opened up even more room for Burton to work Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Burton scored a receiving and rushing touchdown in the win and is certainly in line for a heavy target share as long as Philip Rivers is behind center. Burton has at least five targets in every game he’s played in this season.
The NFL collectively held its breath and put forward a full slate of games less regularly scheduled bye weeks. Setting line-ups was only normally frustrating without several studs on both sides of the ball who were off for Week 6. Those leaving the field with injuries sustained in Week 6 include Steelers’ LB Devin Bush, who is lost for 2020 with a torn ACL, Panthers’ safety Juston Burris, Packers’ safety Darnell Savage, and two Eagles: DT Malik Jackson and safety K’Von Wallace. Sorry, Philly fans, I was not trolling you with the comment about injury regression!
Herbert has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 21.8 fantasy points/game as the Chargers’ starting quarterback. In Week 5 against the Saints, Herbert threw for 264 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with 27.4 fantasy points on the week. Herbert also adds a bit of value with his legs, although he only averages 13.8 rushing yards/game. However, even a few rushing yards can make the difference at the quarterback positions, as QB scoring is tight outside of the top options. In Week 7, Herbert draws a dream matchup against the Jaguars’ porous defense. They’ve given up 30 or more points in every game since Week 1 in five straight losses. Opposing quarterbacks average two touchdowns, 274 passing yards, and a 106.8 passer rating versus the Jaguars. I expect Herbert to carve up the Jaguars in this game, and I have Herbert ranked as a borderline QB1 for the week.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues. Nobody is taking King Henry’s job in Tennessee but this year has proven you can’t have enough insurance, especially in a dynasty league. McNichols has looked good when given the opportunity. He currently averages over five yards per attempt. He’s a running back you can find on almost any dynasty waiver wire and I don’t want to wait for an injury in Tennessee to make this move.
Now looking at the late games, I will go through each game and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
As usual, I’m trying a different type of article this week. I will go through each of the early slate games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. If I get a chance, I might look at the rest of the games in another article, but I wanted to start with only the first set. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
The Ravens drafted Waller in the sixth round of the 2015 NFL Draft as a wide receiver. Waller saw almost no playing time behind veterans Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, and Chris Givens, and he eventually landed on injured reserve. After 2015, the Ravens decided to convert Waller into a tight end, hoping that he could provide a new element to their offense. However, Waller’s 2016 season got off to a bad start when the NFL suspended him for the first four games for violating the substance-abuse policy. He returned and played the remaining 12 games, but unfortunately, there were few opportunities in the Ravens’ offense. Veteran tight end Dennis Pitta led the Ravens in targets with 121, leaving only scraps for Waller. The Ravens also rarely deployed 2TE sets, preferring to use 11 or 21 personnel.
Welcome to part two of my weekly publication! As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
In a similar vein to last week’s Roethlisberger bet, I’m also taking the under on the Eagles’ Week 6 opponent. I won’t rehash my entire spiel but, basically, the Eagles have not let up many passing yards to their opponents this year. Moreover, Jackson hasn’t cleared this total since Week 1, and hasn’t thrown for over 200 passing yards since Week 2.
Week 5 of the NFL season has come and gone and we are now almost one-third of the way through the NFL regular season “shocked face”. As we approach this milestone in the season we are still learning a lot about the rookies each and every week. Some flash, some stumble, but what I aim to do here is help you make informed decisions based on their performances. Let’s begin, shall we?
Without the Chiefs, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bills, Saints, or Raiders on the main slate, we’ll have to get creative in Week 6. I’ll be breaking down all eleven matchups, sharing my thoughts on player prices* and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
Mecole Hardman is 40.2% owned and just misses the 40% cut. But, with Sammy Watkins out, he’s an absolute must-add ahead of a potential Week 6 breakout.
On Tuesday, the Jets finally decided to part ways with star running back Le’Veon Bell. After trying and failing to find a trade partner, they released him. As Bell was a vested veteran, he was not subject to waivers, allowing him to sign with any NFL team. Bell did almost nothing for the Jets in 2020. He missed three games with a hamstring injury, but he did see playing time in two games. Bell totaled 19 carries for 74 yards, and he added three receptions for 39 yards. Considering the Jets’ poor offense, Bell scored no touchdowns, and he wasn’t a strong fantasy asset. I think everyone is pretty happy that Bell is out of New York.
The Packers drafted Williams out of BYU in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft. At the time, they had recently moved on from the previous starter Eddie Lacy, and they had converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery as their nominal starting running back. The Packers also selected Aaron Jones in the fifth round of the same draft, creating a three-way competition at running back.
Sunday was a day on which fans experienced the uplifting hope of seeing the return of Alex Smith, only to feel the despair of losing Dak Prescott. The Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott dominated the headlines during the 2020 NFL Offseason, and they are going to do so again in 2021. The 1-3 Dallas Cowboys went into a Week 5 matchup with their division foes the New York Giants in must-win mode. During the third-quarter Prescott took a first-down quarterback draw as the Cowboys approached the Giants’ red zone. On this play he was tackled by Logan Ryan, as Ryan brought him down he rolled up under Prescott who suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle. During the moment, other than thoughts and prayers for Prescott’s health the underlying fear was remembering Gordon Hayward’s similar and brutal injury in 2017.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.