The Super Bowl Betting Guide

Intro

I know what you’re thinking right now as the reader: “Tyler isn’t DFF’s betting analyst. He’s never written a DFS or gambling article that I’ve seen. What does he know about gambling?”

Well, that’s a great question. Indeed, I’ve never written a gambling article for DFF. However, I’m a very experienced gambler. Since college, I’ve been a serious poker player, and I’ve always had a knack for gambling. I bet far more money than I should have during my poker days, sometimes even on sports. 

So while I’m certainly no betting analyst, I feel like I can make an excellent contribution to a betting article. The Super Bowl betting scene comes with many different kinds of bets. Some of them are related to the game’s outcome, but I think the fun lies with the side bets. I’ll cover both of those in this piece. Let’s get started!

Game-Related Bets

Odds: Chiefs -3 to 3.5

Given the line of Chiefs -3, I don’t like the bet in either direction. That’s where I would personally set the line myself, given that the Chiefs are the better team by a considerable margin over the Bucs. If you can find action with a 3.5 line, and there are out there even if the line keeps fluctuating throughout the week, I would love to bet on the Buccaneers at that price. Generally, I don’t like to bet unless I can find an edge, and this line seems about right in my eyes.

Over-Under/Total: 56.5

I think this total seems about fair. The Chiefs totaled 62 points in their 38-24 win over the Bills in the AFC Championship, while the Buccaneers hit a 57 point total with their 31-26 victory over the Packers in the NFC Championship. However, I expect the two teams to want to put on an offensive showcase for the Super Bowl.

Therefore, I would lean toward the over. The Buccaneers’ run defense has dominated its opponents all season. At the same time, the Chiefs have abandoned the run in favor of a pass-happy attack. If the Chiefs score a bunch of quick passing touchdowns early, the game script will force the Buccaneers to attempt to come back, raising the overall game total. 

The Nonsense

Coin Toss

Don’t bet on the coin toss. You’re just handing the sportsbook free vig. I know we all like to gamble, but put down 20, 50, or even 100 dollars on this with your best friend or something. This bet is just a sucker to make money for the casinos and sportsbooks.

Total Players to Attempt a Pass (Over/Under 2.5)

This prop is one of the “nonsense” props that I find to have a small amount of legitimate strategy. Essentially, the bet is whether anyone other than Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady will attempt a pass during the contest. Typically, such a pass attempt would come from either a fake punt, trick play, or if a starting quarterback suffers an injury.

The Chiefs did have punter Tommy Townsend attempt one pass during the 2020 season, and Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins attempted passes on trick plays. However, the Buccaneers didn’t attempt any trick plays, and Blaine Gabbert only saw action in garbage time. The Super Bowl almost certainly won’t have any garbage time, so counting on that is likely a fool’s errand.

At DraftKings, you can bet on the over here at +165 and the under at -215. I would probably lean toward the under, even at the increased price. I think it’s worth it to bet on the outcome that is just far more likely, given the Buccaneers and Chiefs’ previous tendencies.

Conclusion

I hoped you enjoyed this article. I wish I had more legal sports betting options in New York to take a shot on more of these bets. However, I’ve now revealed that I love to gamble, so I’m sure I’ll hear from the Twitter community! I love to make charity bets more than anything, and if you have anything like that, call me out. I’m sure I’ll find a way to make a bet!

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

jkarp

Columbia SPS Sports Management graduate.

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