Dynasty Analysis
Welcome to part two of my weekly publication! As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget. With added IR spots in most leagues, you can also shift injured players there, opening up a roster spot for these options. Since most of these additions will occur on the weekend, I’ll exclude any players from the Thursday night game, as you won’t be able to add them to your rosters. This season more than any other, it’s essential to remain active and stay ahead of your league mates. I hope you find value in this column and that it helps you succeed on a week-to-week basis.
We did it, fam! We’re officially halfway through the ridiculous 2020 fantasy football season. It has been a crazy one, with plenty of drama and anxiety over rescheduled games and all the other headaches that have come with this football season’s tussle with COVID-19. We have had players from the 2020 rookie class we have been able to count on, and some that have fallen on their faces and cost our teams precious points. Let’s take a look at what happened in Week 8 and how we can use that information to help teams down the stretch of this unique season.
WHAT WE LEARNED THIS WEEK The Miami Dolphins did it again. A few weeks after dominating the 49ers, the Dolphins destroyed Jared Goff and company to beat the Rams 28-17. The defense and special teams produced two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, two sacks, and two touchdowns to lead Miami to victory. Players who made important IDP …
IDP Wrap Up: Week 8 Read More »
I love writing these storyline pieces. I will go through the games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. Usually, I’ll split the games into two sets, covering the early games in one story and the later games in another. Also, I’ll do a special spotlight on the Thursday night game from time to time, as that’s a midweek contest. I like to go into more detail for that game, just for a change of pace. We all play fantasy football to enhance our enjoyment of football, and I’m trying to add to that sense of happiness here. Fun is the most essential part of this hobby for all of us, including me. With that said, let’s jump into Thursday night’s game between the Packers and 49ers!
We sometimes talk too much in hypotheticals in this piece, so let’s talk about a real trade that went down this week. I dealt David Montgomery and CeeDee Lamb for Tyler Boyd and Le’Veon Bell. My point here is not to talk about myself, but to discuss the process of how the trade came together. Montgomery was a solid if uninspiring piece who was burning a hole on my bench. After losing OBJ to injury and taking hits on both Lamb and DeVante Parker due to quarterback changes, I needed a solid WR to complement my RB-heavy team. I looked up a number of rest-of-season rankings to see what WRs were in the Montgomery area and found that Boyd was right there. This is where I had to read the room.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Each and every week, I’ll be covering a handful of players that I believe will either exceed expectations or let your team down in a major way. Here’s who you should be looking at for Week 9. Sterling Shepard immediately became Daniel Jones’ favorite target when he returned to the lineup in Week 7. In the past two weeks, he’s been targeted 8 and 10 times, respectively, for 133 yards and a TD. Shepard will be a flex-worthy option in all PPR formats for as long as he can maintain this volume.
We are on to Week 9, and for most dynasty teams, at this point in the season, we are either in contender or pretender mode. Once again I will try to bring you names off the beaten path that you can keep an eye on throughout the rest of the season or add to the end of your bench. This week we are going back to the struggling Patriots. The Patriots offense is not what I believe it will be in the coming weeks or the coming years, so we need to keep an eye on the options available within their team at the moment. We will take a look at our first rookie of this series, the undrafted wide receiver out of Mississippi State, Isaiah Zuber.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has underwhelmed as have all the rookie running backs in 2020. Add into that the issue of one Le’Veon Bell being present and teams that are relying on CEH for a run at a title may be forgiven for being concerned. The question that teams in first through third have to decide is: what matters more… shiny assets for the future or winning a chip?
The Seahawks came into this game with multiple injuries at the running back position. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde missed the game, Rashaad Penny remained on the PUP list, and Travis Homer had a minor injury. While Homer managed to participate, the Seahawks leaned on rookie DeeJay Dallas in his place. However, the Seahawks still won over the 49ers, 37-27.
Wow. That’s all I have to say about the absolute disaster of a season for the reigning NFC champions. While the Packers are dealing with some COVID-related absences of their own, their issues seem largely relegated to their running back room. Even though the team will miss Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and AJ Dillon, those absences pale in comparison to the mess that is the 49ers. Provided that the virus does not spread further (and the game actually goes ahead as scheduled) give me the Packers with confidence.
Wilkins’ offensive snap share spiked to 51% in Week 8 as he led the team in rushing attempts over Nyheim Hines and rookie darling Jonathan Taylor. He took 20 carries for 89 yards. Wilkins didn’t have a breakout game or anything but proved he could be more effective than Taylor who everyone expected to overtake the lead role at some point this season. That simply hasn’t happened and Wilkins could be in line for a whole bunch of work going forward.
If you follow this column, then you know I didn’t have my best week weeding out pretenders in the box scores of Week 7. In Week 8, Chiefs safety Daniel Sorensen played more snaps than fellow safety Juan Thornhill for the first time since opening day when Thornhill was returning from injury. Is 30-year-old Sorensen just now turning into a good player? He now has nine tackles and a turnover in each of his last two games. More importantly, he tied for the team lead in snaps.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage. I also want to provide added value for each type of streamer this season. I’ll highlight any players from 50-60% owned in each section if they’re superior options to both of my streaming candidates at that specific position. Those players are “probably owned,” but they could be out there in 10-team or shallower formats. I won’t offer analysis on these players, just the names and matchups.
If neither of my two suggested streamers is under 25% ownership percentage, I will give a “super-deep” option. That feature should help those owners playing in deeper leagues with few waiver-wire options. Like the “probably owned” players, I’ll list the players without analysis. I realize that all leagues are different, and I want to accommodate all of my readers.
I had to make sure someone didn’t spike my drink when I witnessed Foreman running the ball for an NFL franchise this past weekend. Foreman was a fantasy darling years ago before suffering a devastating knee injury as a Houston Texan. He’s now back up to Derrick Henry but got some run in Week 8 against the Bengals. He took five carries for 37 yards and looked healthy for the first time in years. This is the longest of shots but a guy with a pedigree on a run-first team.
Of course, I have to focus on the return of one of my favorite rookie receivers, Jalen Reagor. Reagor will play in this game after missing multiple weeks with a UCL injury, and I expect him to immediately assume a starting role as the Eagles’ Z receiver. The Eagles have no receiving options outside of Reagor, Travis Fulgham, and Greg Ward, so Reagor could see significant work. Even if he doesn’t, I think Reagor has a WR1 future in the NFL, and I want to see him develop.
I love writing these storyline pieces. I will go through the games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. Usually, I’ll split the games into two sets, covering the early games in one story and the later games in another. Also, I’ll do a special spotlight on the Thursday night game from time to time, as that’s a midweek contest. I like to go into more detail for that game, just for a change of pace.
This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. We all play fantasy football to enhance our enjoyment of football, and I’m trying to add to that sense of happiness here. Fun is the most essential part of this hobby for all of us, including me.
I’ve listed the home team first for each game to keep things organized. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
In this article, I’ll be breaking down all eleven matchups* from Week 8, sharing my thoughts on player prices** and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*At the time of this writing, there are still a number of injury situations that have yet to be resolved.
**All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In this weekly article, JKarp looks ahead to the following week. He’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. He also helps you get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
With Drake sidelined, what happens to Chase Edmonds’s dynasty value? What is the future of the Arizona backfield? Come in for all the answers!
I’m sure some of you are still wondering. Who is Ben DiNucci, and why is Tyler talking about him? He’s not a household name, and even I had never heard of him before this week. Well, let’s get into DiNucci’s story and why he’s become relevant.
Mr. Bryant, my pre-draft TE1, has found himself in a pretty good situation, at least for the next couple of weeks. Before Week 7, Bryant was operating as the Browns’ TE2. Although not a flashy title, it still allowed Bryant to see around 50% of the offensive snaps. However, last Friday, October 23 it was announced that the Browns starting TE Austin Hooper would miss Sunday’s game after having his appendix surgically removed that Friday. The Browns later named Harrison Bryant the starting TE and he did not let them down. In Bryant’s first NFL start he eclipsed Hooper’s single-game high for touchdowns with two and nearly passed his single-game yardage high of 57 with 56 of his own.
On a cold, snow-filled, blustery day in Denver, the Kansas City defense and special teams took over the game against the Broncos. When finished with their day, the Chiefs DST had compiled three sacks, two fumbles, two interceptions, and had scored two touchdowns. With the Jets next on the schedule, it’s highly likely you’ll see more of the same next week. Players of IDP consequence this week were Daniel Sorensen, Charvarius Ward, Tyrann Mathieu, and Willie Gay.