Intro/Methodology
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
Seahawks
Summary
The Seahawks defeated the Rams 20-9, clinching the NFC West. However, the high-powered offense is long-gone. Somehow, the Seahawks’ league-worst defense has completely turned around, becoming one of the NFL’s best units. Therefore, they don’t need to put up massive point totals as they did earlier in 2020.
Quarterback
At this point, I’ve turned on Russell Wilson as a dynasty asset. He completed 20/32 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, although he saved his day with a rushing touchdown. However, Wilson is already 32 years old, so fantasy owners cannot rely on high rushing production forever. Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 300 yards since Week 9, and he has only 10 touchdowns in those seven games.
Going into the offseason, I have Wilson ranked as a second-round Superflex startup value. But, he’s the start of a new tier of quarterbacks, clearly behind Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert. All of those players are first-round values to me, whereas Wilson is clearly behind them.
Wilson will likely drop even further from QB8, as I expect to rank Trevor Lawrence ahead of him, and Joe Burrow will move ahead if he comes back fully healthy. I think we saw Wilson’s peak value earlier this season when he was on fire. Now, he’s in for a slow value decline, although I believe he can deliver solid production for at least 4-5 more seasons.
Running Backs
Chris Carson dominated running back touches, taking 16 carries for 69 yards. However, Rashaad Penny vultured a touchdown, and Carlos Hyde saw snaps on third-down as a pass protector. Going into 2021, Hyde will undoubtedly be gone, and Penny has one more year on his rookie contract. But, there’s no way the Seahawks can trust Penny as their starter.
Therefore, I believe the Seahawks reach an agreement with Carson on a contract extension. Carson has struggled with injuries and fumbles throughout his career, and he’s a perfect match with the Seahawks’ offense. I think they can find common ground on a contract, bringing back the Carson-Penny tandem for 2021. If Carson’s value dips due to uncertainty early in the offseason, he might be a good dynasty buy.
Receiving Weapons
With Wilson’s recent struggles, the Seahawks’ fantasy-relevant receiving weapons include only D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf caught six of eight targets for 59 yards, bringing him to 80 receptions, 1,282 yards, and 10 touchdowns on the season. I still have Metcalf as my dynasty WR1, and I don’t see any reason to change that. He recently turned 23 years old, and he’s progressed into a superstar in his second season.
As for Lockett, I have some significant concerns. Since his Week 7 explosion against the Cardinals, Lockett has 43 receptions on 60 targets for 422 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.8 catches and 46.9 yards per game. I think it’s clear that if the Seahawks abandon the pass, Metcalf will survive, but everyone else becomes an afterthought, including Lockett. Lockett turns 29 in September 2021, so his dynasty value will plummet during the offseason. I’d try to get out from Lockett if I could.
The rest of the team isn’t relevant. The Seahawks need to replace their tight end trio of Greg Olsen, Will Dissly, and Jacob Hollister with one real tight end. They did draft Colby Parkinson in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s barely played. If the Seahawks draft or sign a significant tight end, like David Njoku, that player’s value will spike.
Rams
Summary
The Rams’ offense looked putrid in this game. They managed nine points against the Seahawks after losing to the Jets last week. The Rams did have to play this game without Cam Akers, but it’s hard to find many bright spots from the Rams’ performance.
Quarterback
Jared Goff completed a miserable 24/43 passes for 234 yards and an interception with no touchdowns. He also suffered a significant thumb injury, which could keep him out of the must-win season finale. The Rams are a 9-6 team, and they can’t easily escape Goff’s contract through 2022. Therefore, Goff will get some more chances to prove himself, but he’s never going to be a high-end quarterback. He’s currently my dynasty QB14, behind Baker Mayfield and ahead of Matthew Stafford.
Running Backs
Akers missed the game with a high-ankle sprain, leaving Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown to split carries. Henderson had a strong day, with 12 carries for 62 yards, but he also suffered a high-ankle sprain. The Rams will place Henderson on injured reserve, and he will likely miss the rest of the 2020 season. Brown will probably lead the backfield in Week 17, although Akers may return for that game and will return if the Rams make the playoffs.
Brown is a free agent after the 2020 season, and I doubt the Rams re-sign him. Therefore, they will have a committee backfield between Akers and Henderson, who both have multiple years remaining on their rookie deals. I expect Akers to operate as the lead back, but Henderson will remain a thorn in his side. Hopefully, the Rams realize that Akers should be their workhorse in 2021.
Receiving Weapons
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods both played decently in Week 16. Kupp caught eight of nine targets for 66 yards, while Woods had four catches on nine targets for 48 yards. Both Woods and Kupp are under long-term contracts, locking them as the top two weapons in 2021. Kupp will turn 28 in the summer, and Woods will be 29 in April. Both players are on the downside of their dynasty value curve, which could make them excellent buy targets for contending teams.
Nobody else is particularly relevant here. Josh Reynolds caught six of 10 targets for 65 yards, but he’s a free agent after 2021. Considering that the Rams drafted his replacement in Van Jefferson and locked up two receivers on big deals, there’s zero chance they retain Reynolds in 2021. I doubt Reynolds even signs a significant deal elsewhere, although anything is possible. He’ll be in the NFL somewhere in 2021.
Speaking of Jefferson, he had a goose egg, failing to catch his only target. I doubt Jefferson ever becomes relevant, as Woods, Kupp, and Tyler Higbee will remain ahead of him in the pecking order. Jefferson was an older rookie, and he turns 25 years old in July. He’s just a desperation stash at this point, barely even worth a third-round rookie pick.
Lastly, the Rams have one more year of significant money committed to Tyler Higbee. Therefore, Gerald Everett will depart in free agency. Unlike Reynolds, I think Everett could sign a decent deal elsewhere, as he would be an upgrade for multiple NFL teams. The Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts all come to mind as possible destinations that could use a receiving tight end weapon. Everett is an excellent offseason stash in anticipation of that value bump. Also, don’t forget about fourth-round rookie Brycen Hopkins as a super-deep stash in TE-premium leagues.
Cardinals
Summary
The Cardinals lost 20-12 to the 49ers, dropping them out of the NFL playoff picture. Their entire offense struggled in the loss, and they now need to win and have a Bears’ loss in Week 17 to make the playoffs. Overall, this was just a disappointing game for the Cardinals.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray had a rough day, completing 31/50 passes for 247 yards and an interception. He saved his fantasy day with eight carries for 75 yards, but he also suffered a leg injury late in the game. I still have Murray ranked as my #2 overall Superflex asset behind Patrick Mahomes, though. Murray currently ranks first in fantasy PPG among quarterbacks that have started the whole season. There’s no reason to panic with Murray, and dynasty owners should consider him a cornerstone asset.
Running Backs
Kenyan Drake saw almost all the running back touches, as Chase Edmonds left early with a hip injury. However, Drake turned 18 carries into only 45 yards and a touchdown. Drake is a free-agent after 2020, and he turns 27 in January. The Cardinals cannot be happy with the $8.4 transition tag Drake played on in 2020, so I doubt they re-sign him as their starter. Drake’s value will plummet if he goes anywhere else, as I don’t expect him to get handed another starting job.
As for Edmonds, he’s just a backup, nothing more. I consider him a combination of Alexander Mattison and James White. He can serve as a handcuff, and he provides value as a pass-catcher. But, he won’t ever see the necessary volume to succeed in Arizona, and he’s going into his fourth season. Edmonds will be the Cardinals’ backup in 2021 in the final year of his rookie deal, either to Drake or a new starter.
I won’t speculate too much on potential running back additions for the Cardinals, but suffice it to say that this is an insanely desirable landing spot. Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne would all look fabulous in this offense. Prepare for an insane value spike for whoever signs here as the starter if the Cardinals replace Drake.
Receiving Weapons
This offense is one competent receiving weapon short of being a complete offense. We know that DeAndre Hopkins is a locked-in stud. He might turn 29 years old in June, but I haven’t even dropped him that far in my dynasty rankings. Hopkins remains WR9 and my 19th overall player, even heading into the offseason.
Outside of Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald saw the second-most snaps of the receivers. While Fitzgerald has had an excellent career, it’s time for him to retire. He’s plummeted to a 7.6 yard/reception mark this year, by far the lowest in his career. The Cardinals are wasting snaps on Fitzgerald that could go to better players.
Christian Kirk came in just behind Fitzgerald in snap share. Kirk hasn’t impressed this season, regressing from his 2019 numbers. He had a strong game in Week 16, catching seven of 10 targets for 76 yards, but he’s dropped significantly from last season. In 2019, Kirk caught 68 passes for 709 yards and three touchdowns in just 13 games.
But, in 2020, he only has 48 receptions for 621 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games. I like his increased touchdown production, but the decline in volume is a bit alarming. I think we’ve seen that Kirk belongs as a #3 receiving weapon, not as a true secondary option. He’ll play out the final year of his rookie deal in 2021, but I’m not confident that Kirk will ever truly break out for fantasy purposes.
Beyond Kirk, nobody did much of anything on the Cardinals. A bunch of players saw snaps and targets, including KeeSean Johnson and Dan Arnold. Both of those players belong purely in depth roles. The Cardinals will sign or draft another wide receiver, and they could certainly add a tight end as well. I don’t expect anyone on the roster to have dynasty value outside of Hopkins and Kirk.
Finally, we have to talk about Andy Isabella. Isabella was a healthy scratch for the third straight week, and he’s a bust at this point. The Cardinals got nothing from their second-round investment in Isabella in 2019. I’ll likely hold Isabella throughout the offseason just in case he gets some buzz and a value bump, but I’m expecting nothing from him moving forward.
49ers
Summary
The 49ers are already eliminated from playoff contention, but they managed to go to 6-9 with their win over the Cardinals. However, the 49ers have already turned their attention to 2021. They’re one of the teams with the most uncertainty, so they’ll be a team to watch during the offseason.
Quarterback
C.J. Beathard completed 13/22 of his passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns. While he had a nice game, Beathard is an NFL backup quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo missed most of the season with a high-ankle sprain, and Nick Mullens requires Tommy John surgery. However, both Mullens and Beathard are free-agents after 2020, and the 49ers can cut Garoppolo after the season for a minimal dead cap.
There’s virtually nothing to take away from this game, then. Beathard likely earned himself a clear backup role in 2021, either with the 49ers or elsewhere. We’ve seen that Beathard is a competent player, and he can work with George Kittle. Therefore, he’s probably worth a bench spot in deep Superflex dynasty leagues. The rest of the 49ers’ quarterback discussion is more of an offseason topic.
Running Backs
Essentially, only Jeff Wilson Jr. received any relevant touches in the 49ers’ backfield. He had 22 carries for 183 yards, and he caught one pass for 21 yards and a touchdown. From Week 12 to Week 16, Wilson Jr. has averaged 13.6 carries and 72.2 yards per game with 5.3 YPC. Wilson Jr. is a restricted free agent, so the 49ers can re-sign him for cheap. I expect them to do that, but it’s unclear what role Wilson Jr. will serve in 2021. But, he’s a nice dynasty stash.
Both Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman were active for this game, but neither saw much action. Coleman will be 28 years old going into 2021, while McKinnon will be 29. As both players are free agents after 2020, I think their careers are essentially over. They’ve shown nothing all season, and I’m not sure either gets picked up by another team. I suppose they remain dynasty holds until free agency, though.
Raheem Mostert missed this game with a high-ankle sprain. In 2020, Mostert played eight games, averaging 13 carries and 65.1 yards per game, similar to Wilson Jr.’s numbers. The 49ers have Mostert under contract at only $3.3 million for 2021, and I think he will be back at that low price.
For the offseason, the 49ers will likely add someone else to the backfield to complement Mostert and Wilson Jr. JaMycal Hasty did flash in the middle of the season. Still, he broke his collarbone, and I’m not sure he will come back into a significant role in 2021.
Therefore, Mostert and Wilson Jr.’s value will depend on what the 49ers do in the offseason. I doubt they spend on a big free-agent due to their cap situation, but they could easily spend a second or third-round pick on a running back. I’d far prefer to stash Wilson Jr. at his lower value than Mostert at his significantly higher price.
Receiving Weapons
George Kittle returned to the lineup in Week 16, and he immediately became the team’s top receiving weapon. He caught four of five targets for 92 yards, leading the 49ers in receptions, targets, and yards. Kittle remains my dynasty TE1, as he’s four years younger than Travis Kelce, and I believe he’s a more complete player than Darren Waller.
Unfortunately, we saw Kittle’s return drastically affect Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk only had two targets in this game, catching one for 15 yards. Aiyuk has had a great rookie season, with 60 receptions for 748 yards and five touchdowns on 96 targets. However, most of his bigger games came without Kittle in the lineup.
Deebo Samuel will also return to the 49ers for 2021, and the 49ers demonstrated a commitment to scheming Samuel targets in their offense. Samuel had six or more targets in every game he started and finished, averaging nine targets per game in those contests. While Samuel is certainly injury-prone, he will reduce Aiyuk’s ceiling. I fear that we won’t truly trust either Samuel or Aiyuk as weekly starters, although I would certainly prefer Aiyuk in dynasty leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Divisional Nuggets Articles: NFC East (Week 2), AFC North (Week 3), AFC South (Week 4), NFC West (Week 5), NFC East (Week 6), AFC North (Week 7), AFC South (Week 8), NFC West (Week 9), NFC East (Week 10), AFC North (Week 11), AFC South (Week 12), NFC West (Week 13), NFC East (Week 14), AFC North (Week 15), AFC South (Week 16)
