Rookie Stock Market: Week 15

Congratulations!

I hope this applies to a lot of y’all, as I believe my readers are educated and smart fantasy players who have made it to the finals of their leagues. My overall percentage of teams in the playoffs is down compared to normal, but 2020 has been nothing but normal right? Like last week, we had several big-time rookie performances in Week 15. Jalen Hurts was the top-scoring player across all positions, and Justin Herbert was QB6. D’Andre Swift was RB10, Jonathan Taylor was RB15, Brandon Aiyuk was WR6, CeeDee Lamb WR11, and Justin Jefferson WR16. So if you rostered and played these rookies, you’re happy you did! Like the past two weeks, in addition to the normal stuff I cover here, I will be adding a Week 16 Playoff Spin for each rookie I touch on today. Let’s get into it!

Risers

Jalen Hurts – QB Eagles

Week 15 Snap Shot

As I mentioned in the intro, Jalen Hurts BALLED OUT! I was fortunate enough to play Hurts in a semifinal matchup, and I hope you did too. Jalen Hurts was good the previous week too, with a QB13 finish, but this week he showed us his true potential, with over 400 total yards and four TDs, getting it done through both the air and the ground. The only negative thing I have to say about his performance is his 54.5% completion percentage. In a perfect world, we would all like for our QBs to live in the 60%+ range, but it doesn’t really matter here, as Hurts scored us 37.82 points. The real-life performance of a QB doesn’t matter to fantasy players as long as the QB is producing points. Hurts was just over 56% completions last week, but the only reason I will care about a “low” completion % is if it gets the QB benched. Hurts has already been named the starting QB for Week 16, and I believe this marks the end of the Carson Wentz era in Philly. On paper Wentz has a bad contract, but it is not the end of the world.

Realistically, I expect the Eagles will get a third maybe a second for Wentz, and be pretty happy about it. Hurts is a proven winner as a QB, winning at both Alabama and Oklahoma in college. His presence in Philadelphia should be positive for nearly everyone within the organization. Hurts value as a dynasty asset has skyrocketed the past two weeks, and it could continue to climb if he continues to produce QB top 12 finishes to end the season.

Week 16 Playoff Spin

This Week, Hurts will face the Dallas Cowboys, who have allowed the second-most points (real NFL points) per game with 30.9. Surprisingly the Cowboys are 12th-best when it comes to fantasy points allowed for QBs this season. I can attribute this to one thing: opposing teams tend to take a run-heavy approach against the Cowboys, as they jump out quickly and the Prescott-less offense is not explosive enough to close the gap. However, I expect this game to be pretty competitive as both teams fight for a playoff spot, and even if the Eagles do take a run-heavy approach, Hurts should be involved as he is averaging 14.5 carries per game since taking over as the starter. Hurts is averaging a little over 28PPG the past two weeks, but I will go conservative here, and project him to score 26 points in your fantasy playoffs. 

Lynn Bowden Jr. – RB/WR Dolphins

Week 15 Snap Shot

HE’S ALIVE!!! Lynn Bowden Jr. has pulled a Frankenstein on us and has revived what was once a dead, broken, and sad rookie season. Through the first 12 games of the season, Bowden Jr. was a nonfactor, only active for five games and gaining just nine yards. However, the past three weeks have been a completely different story. Since Week 13, Lynn Bowden has seen an increase in snaps each week, 44% ->, 71% ->, 90%. Along with the increased workload, Bowden has been a productive fantasy asset, averaging 11.7 PPG since Week 13, good for RB22 during that period. Bowden has been Tua Tagovailoa‘s favorite quick target as of recently, with 20 targets over the past three games.

Bowden has been good, but I cannot chalk up his production to only his actions. Lynn was initially given an increased role in Week 13 with Malcolm Perry hurt. However in Week 14 with Perry back Bowden still had team-high 9 targets. Both Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki left Week 14 early with injuries and were then ruled out for Week 15. Bowden Jr. once again was Tua’s top target in Week 15, securing six of his seven targets. Both Parker and Gesicki could be back in Week 16, but I believe Lynn Bowden Jr. has solidified his role in the offense the past three weeks. Bowden should be viewed as the second WR and slot WR for the Dolphins until further notice. 

Week 16 Playoff Spin

As mentioned above Lynn Bowden Jr. has averaged 11.7 PPG since being called upon to step up. This week the Dolphins face the Raiders who are 21st when it comes to WR points allowed and 28th for RB points allowed. The Dolphins are essentially using Bowden Jr. as a WR but either way, it is a favorable matchup. If Parker and/or Gesicki are out this week, I believe it safe to write in Lynn for at least five receptions, but if they are active I would scale that back a tad. A conservative projection for Bowden is 8 PPR points with Parker and Geisicki back. However, if they are both out again I would be tempted to start Bowden this week, as his upside is high if he is Tua’s top target against a bottom-half-of-the-league Raiders’ defense.

Fallers

Jerry Jeudy – WR Broncos

Week 15 Snap Shot

This post is several weeks in the making. Back in Week 12 with Kendall Hinton playing QB, the Broncos completed one pass and it was not to Jeudy. The last three weeks haven’t been very pretty either:

He has averaged only 3.5 PPG over this three-game stretch. Of the Broncos’ three main receivers, Jeudy has been the least productive, with Tim Patrick averaging 12.5 PPG and KJ Hamler averaging 9.6 PPG since Week 13. Jerry Jeudy was a highly regarded and hyped rookie; this slump has not been good for his value. For a stretch during the middle of the season, Broncos’ QB Drew Lock was capable of supporting multiple WRs, but he is simply not consistent enough of late throwing for 151 yards in Week 13, then 280 yards in Week 14, and then just 132 yards this past weekend. 

Jeudy has both good and bad metrics on playerprofiler.com. He is #7 in the league in both Air Yards and Deep Targets. He also #106 in catch rate with 45.1%, #104 in QB rating when targeted with 49.5, and #18 in drops with five total. I would not give up on Jeudy, but both he and his QB need to turn things around before we can be trusted in your lineup. Until then his value is trending down.

Week 16 Playoff Spin

The struggling Jeudy will face the Chargers this week who are tough on WR, allowing the sixth-least amount of fantasy points to opposing WRs. Pairing this with the slump the rookie is in makes Jeudy nothing more than a desperation play. I will project Jeudy to score six points, which is not something you want in your lineup if you can help it.

Van Jefferson – WR Rams

Week 15 Snap Shot

If I had to use one word, to sum up Van Jefferson’s season those far, it would be “disappointing”. The Ram’s drafted Van in the second round, leading people to believe the team had a plan to use him this year, but that has not been the case. Over the first 15 games of his career, Jefferson has only had more than 40 yards once and has never eclipsed 50% snap share. The hope was Van Jefferson would overtake Josh Reynolds as the WR3 in Los Angeles, but Reynolds has firmly held that position this year, playing 71.99% of the snaps to Jefferson’s 20.39%. 

Van Jefferson was a bit of a polarizing prospect coming out. The analytics community was largely out on him due to his low dominator rating and late breakout age, but on film Jefferson showed great route running ability and excelled separating, showcasing that ability at the senior bowl. 

So far this season, the Rams haven’t given the rookie a chance to showcase his skills. Reynolds has been solid this year but nothing special. I guess the Rams are happy with the safe option that Reynolds provides, but it is concerning to me that Jefferson isn’t getting more reps with Reynolds just being “OK” this year. Next year might be the true test of Jefferson’s value and contribution, as Josh Reynolds is set to be a free agent after the season. If the Rams do not draft anyone highly or bring a big name out of the free-agent market, Jefferson could be in line for a much bigger role next year. This said, Van Jefferson has seen his value fall throughout the season as he posted week after week of unstartable fantasy production. Jefferson owners should be looking to hold him for now though, in hopes he becomes the WR3 in 2021.

Week 16 Playoff Spin

Don’t play Van Jefferson, the end.

Buy

Jalen Reagor – WR Eagles

Week 15 Snap Shot

The 21st overall pick is finally starting to put some solid games together. Since Jalen Hurts took over in Week 14, Reagor is averaging 8.7 PPG and 47.5 receiving YPG. This is nothing incredible, but it is nice to see Reagor take a step forward with Hurts now under center. With Hurts at QB, Reagor is the favorite WR target and has the second-most targets on the team, trailing just Dallas Geodert’s 14, with 12 of his own. 

I see Reagor as a buy because his value has taken a hit as of recently but it is starting to trend in the right direction. Back in rookie drafts, Reagor was going in the late first, but after a less than ideal rookie season, his value has certainly taken a hit. With a strong WR class incoming in 2021, I think owners could be looking to jump ship for a shiny new toy in the 2021 rookie draft.

In addition to a buy-low window, I still firmly believe Reagor will be a successful NFL player. He has a very strong prospect profile, and players like him hit more often than not. 

When you par his 18-year-old breakout age with his first-round draft capital he has a 70.6% chance of a top 24 PPR season, as seen in the table below:

Another reason I am high on Reagor is his athleticism. Reagor had a disappointing NFL Combine. His 4.47 40 was slower than many expected, he then bombed his short shuttle and the three-cone drill gave him a 7th% agility score. However it was not all bad, Reagor literally jumped out of the building and earned a 98% burst score. The TCU alumni then redeemed himself at his pro day, putting up some ridiculous numbers!

On Sunday against the Cardinals, Reagor showed that explosiveness, beating Patrick Peterson deep with quickness and speed.

Reagor got behind Patrick Peterson twice but was unable to connect with Hurts on either deep ball. The needle is trending up for Reagor and the buy window is open for now but could close with a big game out of the rookie. Considering Jalen Reagor was a late first-round pick in rookie drafts and his value has not sustained. I believe an early second in 2021 is fair value. I would feel more than comfortable offering that and I recommend you do too.

Week 16 Playoff Spin

Reagor left Week 15 early with an ankle injury and is currently listed as questionable for Week 16. I am writing this with the assumption that Reagor is a full go. The Eagles play the Cowboys this week, and as I previously mentioned they allow nearly 31 PPG to opposing offenses, second-most in the league. Similarly, they also allow the second-most points in the league to WRs, making Reagor a high upside play. Despite the potential for a breakout game for Reagor, he would still be a desperation play in most leagues but could be a decent start in leagues with large lineups. I will project a 12 point game out of Reagor in Week 16, but a 20 point outing wouldn’t surprise me.

Sell

Brandon Aiyuk – WR 49ers

Week 15 Snap Shot

Since Week 13, the rookie Aiyuk has been the WR6 averaging 21.6 PPG in that period. His athleticism and playmaking ability have been on full display. He was been tremendous, especially for a rookie. At this point, you might be wondering why he is a sell? It has nothing to do with Brandon Aiyuk as a player and all to do with his situation. In Week 13, Aiyuk shared the field with Deebo Samuel, but in Week 14 Samuel only played one offensive play before exiting, and he did not return to the field in Week 15. 

Since Week 9, the 49ers’ leading receiver from the past two seasons George Kittle has also not been playing due to injury. So as well as Aiyuk has been playing, his only competition for targets has been Jordan Reed and Kendrick Bourne. Kittle could return soon and would immediately eat into Aiyuk’s production. As talented as the rookie is, he is sure to lose his current target share with a fully healthy 49ers’ team. For this reason, now is the time to sell Aiyuk while he is still riding the hype of his late-season explosion. Aiyuk was going in the late first and early second of rookie drafts and his value has ballooned since then. I believe you could sell Aiyuk for an early 2021 first, or even late 2021 first and second. Creating a strong dynasty team is all about consistently adding value, and selling Aiyuk while he is hot is a great way to do so.

Week 16 Playoff Spin

From what I have seen the 49ers are due to be without Kittle again this weekend, so Aiyuk is inline for another large target share. The 49ers will face the Cardinals who rank 24th when it comes to points allowed for opposing WRs. Considering the damage Aiyuk has done recently I expect him to keep up the production this week. I project 20 points for Aiyuk in Week 16, which would be a very nice addition to your lineup. I would start him with confidence in the championship matchup.

Thanks for tuning in again for the 15 straight weeks of the “Rookie Stock Market”. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little proud of myself for this, as last season I didn’t see myself as someone who could write a weekly “column”. So I have surprised myself, to say the least.

You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for even more content.