Devy Analysis
There is a player from the 2020 class who compares favorably to Metcalf and is on pace to outproduce Metcalf’s college statistics considerably. This prospect is on the same trajectory as Metcalf was in his early college days and could even surpass Metcalf when it comes to his upside. This prospect ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at his high school combine, at the same weight that Metcalf ran a 4.68. Metcalf gained over 20 lbs. in college and his agility was impacted. His 4.3-second high school short shuttle decreased to 4.5-seconds at the NFL Combine. His three-cone drill also dropped from 6.8-seconds to 7.38-seconds at the NFL Combine.
In this article, I will take you through the top devy options that are eligible for the 2022 NFL Draft. We will look at their listed measurements according to their college programs as well as their projected 40-yard dash times. We will project 40-yard dash times by taking their high school combine testing results and adjusting them based on the expected positional progression as these players progress from being 18-year-old kids to 21-year-old NFL players. We will also use film analysis to tweak these projected times on a player-to-player basis. Finally we will look at players who tested similarly to create a superimposed range of outcomes for these players. Let’s dive in with the top options from the class of 2022.
The 6’0” and 208 lbs. sophomore sure has a great pedigree, although he didn’t get much action in the COVID-19 impacted PAC-12 2020 season. His father, Emmitt Smith, is the NFL All-Time leading rusher amassing 18,355 yards over his 15-year career. E.J. Smith showed off a similar rushing capability as his father did in Texas High School Football, also showing off elite receiving abilities with 114 receptions over his final three high school seasons in Dallas. He is currently being selected outside the top-50 in devy drafts and is outside the top-100 in some of the “big-name” devy site rankings. Smith is a player that I can’t get enough of this offseason, and I can’t wait until the consensus sees his value skyrocket.
To explain the methodology of this process I have broken down many of the top recruits into three cohorts. First, we have the #TeamPedigree. These are highly rated players who retain value in devy leagues based on their recruiting hype alone and will be projected for high NFL Draft capital even if they do not succeed in achieving an early collegiate breakout. Secondly, we will look at the #TeamPotenial cohort. These are prospects that in the right situation, and if given opportunities early in their college career, can skyrocket to the top of the 2025 Draft class. Finally, we have my favorite type of players in the #TeamFun cohort., players who have unparalleled potential as NFL prospects but need several events to unfold for that potential to be realized and also offer dynasty league-changing upside.
Campus to Canton is a devy fantasy football format that is swiftly escalating in popularity among fantasy football enthusiasts. We can take a step back first and cover a few items worth noting. A devy league is a league in which you roster players that are not yet in the NFL, typically college football players. The word devy is a shortened version of developmental players. Campus to Canton leagues is the furthest down the devy rabbit hole that you can go!
Every year in devy leagues, we yearn for the players who produce in their freshman season, preferably as true freshmen. Last year, we saw the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, and Bijan Robinson have breakout seasons as true freshmen and boost their stocks to become first-round devy picks as just sophomores. They were joined by Deamonte Trayanum, Deuce Vaughn, Sean Tucker, and Ty Jordan (we were shocked and very saddened by the news of his passing earlier this offseason). Not all freshman breakouts end up being highly touted devy assets though, so in addition to predicting some true freshman breakout seasons, we will also aim to declare potential breakouts as well as what their value change projects to be.
At 6’4” 215 lbs. Desmond Ridder was in the conversation with Mac Jones and Kyle Trask to be the QB5 in the 2021 draft class. However, he opted to return to Cincinnati for his senior season. The former three-star-recruit has come a long way and enters the 2021 season with hopes of making a case for himself as a top-three QB.
In his freshman season, Jayden Daniels proved to be a trusted piece putting up five games of more than 300 yards and rushing over the 50-yard mark three times. A few games stand out when looking at his game log from 2019: completion percentages of 22.2% and 42.9% against Utah and Florida State. These are two of the better teams Daniels faced, and while it shouldn’t be shocking they gave him fits, a sub-50% completion percentage is rough.
This past season as a true freshmen Johnston led the Horned Frogs in receiving yards with 487. He was second on the team in receiving TDs with two. This may not seem like a lot but when you realize that TCU only passed for 196 yards-per-game. You see that Quentin commanded nearly a third of the teams receiving yards as freshmen (on a per-game basis). His production was strong enough for a “breakout” season as he comfortably eclipsed the 20% Dominator Rating many people use to classify a “breakout”.
In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.
Bryce Young should be the unquestioned starter in 2021. He plays behind an offensive line that proves to be one of the best in the country year after year. He will undoubtedly be surrounded by the next wave of Bama stars. Young’s top receiving option should be John Metchie who recorded 55 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns last season.
Eric Gray began his career at Tennessee in impressive fashion, sharing the backfield before breaking out late in the season. He finished with 539 rushing yards and 115 receiving yards with 5 total TDs as a true freshman. This past season, he led the Vols with 772 yards and scored four TDs on 157 carries. He tacked on 30 receptions for 254 more yards and two TDs, eclipsing 1000 scrimmage yards. Gray was featured as a player on the rise in your author’s weekly draft stock seasonal article in October.
In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.
In his true freshman season, Pickens caught 37 passes for 552 yards and seven TDs. Within the context of the Georgia offense, he accounted for 19.2% of their receiving yardage and 30.4% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 24.8% dominator rating and a 21.5% adjusted dominator rating. Pickens also averaged 1.43 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
D.J. Uiagalelei, a 6’5”, 245-lb. five-star recruit, was the number-one-rated QB in the 2020 recruiting class. He only saw limited action in 2020 behind Trevor Lawrence, but showed enough to provide a glimpse of what 2021 could have in store. The future is bright for the young star as he should be the unquestioned starter heading into the 2021 season.
Isaiah Spiller is a 6’1” 225 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s ninth-ranked running back in the 2019 class and the 23rd ranked player from Texas. Spiller entered the collegiate recruiting scene with notoriety and garnered interest from other Power Five programs before ultimately committing to the Aggies.
JT Daniels burst on the scene at USC starting as a true freshman, and, while not a stud, looked to be a solid enough player. Obviously, his accuracy was less than stellar and the offense struggled from time to time, but these growing pains aren’t unheard of from true freshman quarterbacks. Entering his second season at USC, there was hope that Daniels was ready to take the next step behind center and elevate his level of play. Halfway through the first game in 2019, USC found themselves scrambling for a replacement as Daniels went down with a torn ACL.
Behind Justin Herbert in 2019, Tyler Shough never really had much of a shot. In the shortened 2020 season he started every game for the Ducks completing 63.5% of his passes for 1559 yards and 13 touchdowns. Shough also showed he could get it done on the ground, rushing 66 times for 271 yards.
Kayshon Boutte is a 6’0” and 185 lbs. five-star wide receiver for the LSU Tigers. He was the WR2 and 24th overall prospect from the 2023 class. In his true freshman season, Boutte caught 45 passes for 735 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the LSU offense, he accounted for 23.5% of their receiving yardage and 20.8% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 22.2% dominator rating and a 23% adjusted dominator rating. Boutte also averaged 1.75 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
Kyren Williams is a 5’9” 195 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s 24th ranked running back in the 2019 class and the sixth-ranked player from Missouri. Williams was an all-purpose stand-out in high school, helping lead his team to a state championship in 2018 with a state-championship game record of 289 rushing yards and 354 total yards.
As of now, Treylon Burks is a consensus top 5 WR in the 2022 class. I am very confident he will end up in my top 3. What will propel Burks up boards is his athleticism and size. With a frame very similar to D.K. Metcalf and speed of his own, Burks could be a big combine riser. Reports are Treylon has been clocked with a 4.4 40 which is not D.K. Metcalf fast, but fast enough to turn heads and get NFL coaches and GMs talking.
In 2019 Kedon Slovis took over after J.T. Daniels went down to injury and never looked back. Daniels has since transferred to Georgia. Slovis put up big numbers for a true freshman and immediately garnered attention because of it. Slovis’s numbers are a bit deceptive because he only played six games in 2020. It isn’t perfect, but if we extrapolate these numbers to match a traditional 12 game season, things look a bit better. He was on pace for 3842 yards and 34 touchdowns. These marks would’ve put him above all quarterbacks receiving 2022 first-round valuations. However, with this extrapolation, we see he was on pace for 14 interceptions as well. With three of his seven interceptions coming in his final game against Oregon, that 14 may not be as accurate as it seems.
Kevin Harris is a 5’10” 227 lbs. running back that was a former three-star recruit. He was 247’s 44th ranked running back in the 2019 class. When reviewing his high school tape, Harris was most likely overlooked for two reasons. He played at a smaller high school and his offensive line at his high school was very effective, minimizing both the need and opportunity for him to break tackles.
As a true freshman, David Bell achieved a breakout season. In 2019, Bell caught 86 passes for 1,035 yards and seven TDs. He also added another score on the ground, amassing 1,047 yards from scrimmage and eight offensive TDs. In the context of the Purdue passing attack, Bell produced 27.8% of the team’s receiving yardage and 24.1% of the team’s receiving scoring. These figures equate to a 26.0% dominator rating and a 27.1% adjusted dominator rating, both qualifying him for a breakout age of 18.8 years old. Bell’s 1.99 yards per team pass attempt fell just short of the 2.0 threshold that we like to see in wide receiver prospects.
Spencer Rattler is currently the odds-on favorite to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy. At 6’1”, 205 lbs. he is shorter than the average NFL quarterback, but that isn’t keeping him from being projected at a stop option at the position in 2022. Rattler was the top quarterback in the 2019 recruiting class but was forced to sit his freshman season behind Jalen Hurts.