Draft Stock Watch: Week 1

As this college football season shapes up to be the most unpredictable in memory, it will be as important as ever for devy owners to keep tabs on what is happening. The COVID-19 pandemic has already caused major headaches for the college football landscape, as two Power 5 conferences have already postponed their seasons (BIG10 and PAC12).  Sprinkled in are many high profile opt-outs who have chosen to forego their 2020 season and prepare for the NFL draft. 

Each week I will bring you the latest updates and NFL buzz surrounding college players that should prove to be integral to future fantasy success. I will utilize recent statistics, performance and film, and general “front office whispers” to compile the intel I share with you. My hope is to provide you with a leg up on your opponents. You will know which devy players to target in trades and/or in what range of draft picks (both NFL and fantasy drafts) you can expect these players to be selected.

Trending Up 

Jaylen Waddle – WR – Alabama 

Jaylen Waddle is one of the players who benefits the most from the SEC deciding to play its season this fall. While it is widely known that Waddle’s game-breaking speed and big-play ability are nearly unmatched, he suffered from playing within a world-class Alabama receiver room. Waddle was limited to just 33 catches last season playing behind teammates and 2020 1st-round picks Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy.

Waddle’s 560 yards and six TDs, however, showcased his electrifying abilities. He needs this season as a featured receiver in the ‘Bama offense to compile statistics to match his talent that already garners 1st-round draft stock. If Waddle stays healthy, expect him to go in the top 20 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft and to be targeted by dynasty owners in that 1.09 to 1.12 range of rookie drafts. 

Zamir White – RB – Georgia 

Another player who stands to benefit from the 2021 season playing out is former five-star recruit, Zamir White. Now more than two full years removed from a torn ACL that cost him his 2018 season, White has an opportunity to showcase production to match his previous hype and potential. He got some limited work last season behind 2020 2nd-round draft pick and current Detroit Lion DeAndre Swift, but he looked a little sluggish. Still, he managed to churn out over 400 rushing yards and three TDs on a 5.2 yard-per-carry average behind Georgia’s stout offensive line last season. 

This season White looks to be the featured back, with newcomer Kendall Milton entering the backfield as an impressive recruit in his own right. James Cook (Dalvin Cook’s little brother) should also see some action. The Bulldogs’ situation is a favorable one in which they have ample depth to spell White when needed. Reports out of camp thus far have been positive, and the added QB uncertainty due to Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman’s decision to opt-out of the 2020 season suggests that the Bulldogs will lean heavily on White early.

With a high volume season in which he proves he is healthy, White should see his NFL draft stock rise as high as the late 2nd-round. Fantasy owners can expect him to be taken near the end of the 1st-round of rookie drafts in 2021 if he finishes the college season healthy.

Nick Bolton – ILB – Missouri 

After leading Missouri in tackles and TFLs in his first season as a starter, Nick Bolton looks to build on that success as the unquestioned leader of the defense in 2021. The opportunity to play against the offensive lines and running back prospects that the SEC boasts will strengthen his resume. Bolton displayed an outstanding motor and the ability to move well laterally chasing outside run plays last season. He was competent in coverage with good instincts. 2021 provides him an opportunity to showcase improvement in coverage and an increased propensity to generate big plays and turnovers.

If Bolton stays healthy, he should continue to build on what was an impressive sophomore season. Depending on the amount of success he has, he may or may not choose to forego his senior season. Bolton projects as a late 2nd-round pick and will probably go in that exact same range in your full IDP rookie drafts, whether that be in 2021 or 2022. 

Trending Down 

Jamie Newman – QB – Georgia 

The excitement for the approved transfer of Jamie Newman from Wake Forest to Georgia was short-lived, as Newman decided to opt-out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL draft just one week ago. Newman was perceived to be a rising star at the QB position, and a strong season in Athens would have most likely cemented his NFL 1st-round draft stock.

It is my opinion that Jamie Newman is one of the few players that has actually hurt his draft stock by choosing to opt-out of the 2020 season. After recording just one stand-out season as a starter, Newman could have benefitted this year by increasing his completion percentage with a better supporting cast and showcasing quicker reads and improved accuracy.

I had envisioned with a solid but unspectacular season as the Bulldogs’ signal-caller, he would be drafted somewhere in the mid-1st to early 2nd-round of the NFL Draft, in the 20-35 pick range. With a top-tier season and an early-season Heisman push, Newman could have vaulted himself into the top-ten. As it stands, I think Newman will get drafted in that 30-45 pick range next April. You can expect him to be taken in the mid-to-late 1st-round of your 2021 rookie drafts in 2QB and Superflex leagues and as a 4th-round pick in 1QB leagues. 

Justyn Ross – WR – Clemson 

One of my favorite prospects for the last two years, Clemson receiver Justyn Ross received life-altering news this offseason. He was diagnosed with congenital fusion in June and was forced to undergo a career-threatening and season-ending neck surgery. The condition is apparently one which Ross was born with and can be described as two bones in the neck being abnormally fused together. This news disappointed me greatly, as he was my #2 overall devy WR up until the news broke. 

The surgery has been reported as a success, and head coach Dabo Swinney has maintained that Ross is in a great place mentally. Still, there is no time-table for Ross’s return, and the only known information regarding his playing career is that he will not be playing this season. For these reasons, Ross is now a complete wildcard as a fantasy asset. If he returns to form in 2021, then he should be an NFL 1st-round draft pick in 2022 and in rookie drafts alike. As it stands now, I would only try to acquire him if you can get him at a severely reduced price. 

Gregory Rousseau – DE – Miami 

A second player that I feel hurt his draft stock by choosing to opt-out of the 2020 season is Miami Hurricanes star pass-rusher Gregory Rousseau. While it is not a guarantee that Rousseau will declare for the 2021 NFL Draft, his draft stock looks to be negatively affected regardless. There is no arguing Rousseau’s superior athletic ability and speed around the edge. The DE out of Miami trailed only 2020 number two overall pick Chase Young for total sacks in the entire FBS. 

Rousseau is a premier pass rusher, but he would have benefitted by putting an improved ability to defend the run on film. Additionally, he has a limited set of counter moves to his pass-rush game and often relies on speed, get-off, and athletic ability alone. Rousseau could have addressed some of these concerns this season and cemented himself as a top-ten NFL pick in 2021. Instead, he will probably see his draft stock slide if he chooses to declare for the NFL next season. He is still a valuable devy asset for those owners who play IDP devy, as his sheer athletic ability gives him DE1 upside.

Preseason Notable Injury List

MarShawn Lloyd – RB – South Carolina: torn ACL, out for the season

Dominick Blalock – WR – Georgia: torn ACL, out for the season

Jadon Haselwood – WR – Oklahoma: lower leg injury, expected back mid-season

Baylor Cupp – TE – Texas A&M: torn labrum and dislocated shoulder, out for the season

Matt Bushman – TE – BYU: ruptured Achilles tendon, out for the season 

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