Each week I will bring you the latest updates and NFL buzz surrounding college players that should prove to be integral to future fantasy success. I will utilize recent statistics, performance and film, and general “front office whispers” to compile the intel I share with you. My hope is to provide you with a leg up on your opponents. You will know which devy players to target in trades and/or in what range of draft picks (both NFL and fantasy drafts) you can expect these players to be selected. If you want to read last week’s article, click here.
This weekend we all got to watch Alabama and Ohio State continue to assert their dominance, as Clemson showed they could win without their all-world QB, despite not playing their best football. Additionally, the Big12 Conference has now effectively eliminated any hopes for one of their teams earning a seed in the college football playoff this season with the twists and turns of a few other top-25 upsets blended in. With Week Nine of the college football season in the books, we take a look at some of the draft stock movements for our future fantasy football stars.
TRENDING UP
Devonta Smith – WR – Alabama
It was to be expected after losing Jaylen Waddle for the season that Devonta Smith would have to step up and assume an even larger responsibility in the Crimson Tide’s passing game. What we witnessed on Saturday was probably more than anyone expected. Smith posted 11 receptions for 204 receiving yards and four TDs in a rout of Mississippi State.
Smith is not a novel name to the devy community, as he has always been viewed as a top-seven or top-eight WR in the 2021 class. However, if he continues this utter dominance of the SEC, then he can expect to rise from his anticipated pick 25-40 range and vault himself into the top-20 overall. Smith is a surgical route runner with exceptional athleticism. He plays with great effort every game, but most of all, he is consistent. Whoever his QB is, they can rely on him to do what he is supposed to do and be where he is supposed to be. Smith is a sure-fire mid-to-late 1st round pick in dynasty rookie drafts in 2021.
Chris Olave – WR – Ohio State
Another player that is trending up this season is Buckeyes’ WR Chris Olave. This past Saturday, Olave put up seven receptions for 120 yards and two TDs. With Justin Fields looking like a Heisman-front-runner through two games, it is easy to envision Olave’s numbers being consistent, if not better, throughout the rest of the season, considering Penn State was believed to be the Buckeyes’ largest threat on their schedule.
Olave still has a small frame, but he has shown repeatedly the ability to go up and attack the football in the air, making contested catches. He may choose to stay in school after the season concludes to improve his playing strength. However, when you consider the injuries and opt-outs and their negative effects on some of the WRs in this draft class, if Olave chooses to declare for the 2021 Draft, he could see himself selected in the late-1st or early-2nd round.
Dylan Moses – LB – Alabama
Prior to Saturday, Alabama’s defense hadn’t been as impressive as we all expected it to be back in August. Nevertheless, they welcomed Mississippi State to Tuscaloosa and promptly shut them out en route to a 41-0 victory. Dylan Moses is a critical component to the Tide’s defense. Moses was regarded as one of the nation’s top defenders last fall but suffered a season-ending knee injury in late August and was forced to miss all 13 games. This season, despite his defense’s early struggles, he has been working to cement his status as a 2021 NFL first-round draft pick.
While Moses hasn’t lit up the stat sheet this season, he has directed his defense as its captain and unquestioned leader and has shown he is fully recovered from 2019 injury. As a player who had an attractive opportunity to opt-out and focus on his health, Moses chose to work hard, grind, and bet on himself and his health. On Saturday he notched seven total tackles with four solos in another performance that will silence critics who question his health and durability. In dynasty IDP leagues, you can expect Moses to be drafted in the late-second or early-third round of the 2021 rookie draft.
TRENDING DOWN
Tanner Morgan – QB – Minnesota
Tanner Morgan’s development at quarterback was instrumental in Minnesota’s breakout 2019 season. Subsequently, he swiftly rose up devy rankings at the QB position. By the end of last season, many believed him to be a mid-round NFL draft pick with the potential to develop into a starting-caliber QB. Unfortunately, through two games this season, Morgan does not look like the same passer we saw throw for 30 TDs and complete more than 66 percent of his passes last season.
On Friday, Morgan threw just 15 times, completing ten of those passes for 189 yards and one TD. Granted, the Minnesota offensive line had their way with Maryland’s defense and they didn’t necessarily need to throw the ball. The bottom line is Morgan is leading an 0-2 Gophers team and looks the part of a game manager thus far. I would not be looking to acquire or use any draft capital on him in devy leagues, as he looks to be nothing more than a day three NFL Draft pick.
Trey Sermon – RB – Ohio State
There was some excitement surrounding the Trey Sermon transfer to Ohio State back in the offseason, as backfield-mate Master Teague had gone down with an injury. Fast-forward to today, and Teague has returned earlier and healthier than anyone would have imagined, and Sermon is now serving as a back-up runner behind the younger Teague. As a senior, this leaves little hope for Sermon to be more than a late-round flier in the NFL draft.
This past weekend Sermon carried just 13 times for 56 yards and caught one pass for four yards. He did not find the end zone. Through two games this season, he has 24 carries for 104 yards and two receptions for eleven yards. Barring another injury to Master Teague, Sermon’s value looks very low, and he should be nothing more than a late-round flier or priority undrafted free agent in dynasty rookie drafts this spring.
Jabril Cox – LB – LSU
After garnering arguably the biggest defensive transfer buzz of the offseason, many had high hopes for Jabril Cox in his new home in the middle of the defending National Champs’ defense. Through half a season, the former FCS standout at North Dakota State has accumulated 31 tackles with 21 solos, one sack, one forced fumble and one INT. This past Saturday, his LSU Tigers were steamrolled by an inconsistent Auburn offense. He recorded just three solo tackles in the game.
Unfortunately for Cox, the defending National Champs now have a losing record, and Cox, himself, has not recorded many impact plays of note. For a player who had hopes of playing his way to becoming a first-round draft pick in April, he will need to step his game up. As of right now, I view Cox as a second-round pick with upside, depending on the defense and scheme he goes to in the NFL. He will probably be drafted in IDP dynasty leagues around the mid-to-late third round.
SMALL SCHOOL PLAYER TO WATCH
Spencer Brown – RB – UAB
Against a respectable Louisiana Tech team, Spencer Brown registered 29 carries for 140 yards and two TDs, albeit in a losing effort. Through seven games, aside from an outlier against Western Kentucky, UAB has leaned on their senior runner, and he has delivered for them. Brown has toted the rock 16 or more times in every other game this season and has accounted for 740 rushing yards and ten rushing TDs.
Brown displays solid vision, size, and power, which could be developed and, over time, utilized in a two-down role at the next level if he lands in the right spot. Because he is limited as a receiver, he is most likely going to be a day three NFL draft pick, if he gets drafted, and would be a late-round flier or priority undrafted free agent in dynasty rookie drafts in 2021.
PREVIOUS WEEKS’ DRAFT STOCK WATCH
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and countless other quality reads and content offered here at Dynasty Football Factory. Also, you can interact with me on Twitter at @DocFFFN.
