After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is Part 9 of the series, where @CKarayannides and I discuss rookie Joshua Kelley.
Joshua Kelley, overall rank 30, RB12
@CKarayannides on why Kelley should be closer to 23rd overall:
Joshua Kelley should be ranked higher considering his three-down profile and projected role in the Chargers backfield.
College Profile – Kelley checks a lot of the boxes we look for when searching for upside outside of the top backs in a rookie class. He has NFL speed (4.49) and good North/South acceleration. He also has the size (212lbs) and body type to earn goal-line work. At UCLA he showed good vision running with his eyes. Kelley showed he knows when to press the line and wait, or when to hit an open hole without delay. As an athlete, he also gave us some wow highlight plays to show off his ups in traffic.
What should get you most excited about Kelley is his ability in the passing game. He has all the tools to play that role in the NFL. And he showed his skills in 2018, finishing with 27 receptions (9.2% team target share). He’s not Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he was very comfortable extending fully for errant passes and quickly transitioning uphill.
NFL Landing Spot – The Chargers are 4th in the NFL in vacated carries (191) this year, despite only rushing on 38% of plays. LA rushing attempts might even tick upwards this year, as Rotoworld’s Hayden Winks projects, with the transition from Rivers to TyGod/Herbert.
Many expect Ekeler to absorb the majority of these vacated carries. But even in games without his thunder complement Melvin Gordon, Ekeler only took 65% of Chargers RB usage (carries + targets). His only competition sans Gordon was Justin Jackson, who in size (199lbs vs. 199lbs) and skill set, mirror Ekeler.
Once Gordon returned, Ekeler settled into 40% usage. He ceded the majority of the red zone work (2.9 carries + targets/game) to Gordon. After Gordon’s departure to Denver, LA sidestepped other needs and spent a fourth-round selection on Joshua Kelley to replace a chunk of the vacated work. Sigmund Bloom makes a good observation about how the Chargers probably valued Kelley
Joshua Kelley (212lbs), like Melvin Gordon (215lbs) before him, is now in the position to win goal-line work in addition to a healthy piece of early-down carries in year one. His three-down skillset projects a possibility for even more work down the line, with a slightly more even split with the talented Ekeler.
“But what about Justin Jackson?”
What about him? As a rookie, the seventh-round pick earned one start with pedestrian results. In his second year, he managed only 8.7 carries + targets in games Gordon missed, spelling Ekeler when needed. When Gordon returned, this usage dropped to 3.5 carries + targets per game; his role essentially gone. Jackson has talent, but his skill set is not a compliment to Ekeler, merely a replacement on this squad.
In conclusion, Joshua Kelley has the skills and opportunity to grab up to 30-35% of the RB usage in LA, including goal-line work. Additionally, his three-down profile shows room for his role to grow.
Drafting running backs in rookie drafts is the easiest way to improve your hit rate and ensure your selection holds or exceeds value. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to decide which (if any) of KJ Hamler, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Chase Claypool, or Devin Duvernay will be the flier that surprises everyone. Go get Joshua Kelley.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
I will start off by agreeing with you that Justin Jackson is not the solution to take on the vacated touches for the Chargers. However, I do not necessarily agree that Kelley will have a 30+% opportunity share as a rookie. Jackson will likely remain around the 5-10% share. I expect Ekeler to see closer to the 75% share that he did weeks one and two prior to the return of Melvin Gordon. I then expect Kelley to make up the remainder of the 20-25% average opportunity share, which will be ramped up as the season progresses. Also, I do not suspect that the Chargers view 4th-round running back Joshua Kelley as a one-for-one fill in for first-round Melvin Gordon.
Another knock on Kelley is his age. Kelley played two seasons at UC Davis starting in 2015. He then had to sit out 2017 due to his transfer to UCLA. He finally earned the starting job as a 21-year old junior. This means that Kelley will be 27-years old when negotiating his second contract. This worries me that Kelley will have a shelf life as a four year NFL running back. This is not much different than Kelley’s day three draft counterparts.
Another thing that worries me is that the Chargers’ first-round quarterback, who will more likely than not take over for TyGod in the early part of the season, had only one running back receive more than 20 catches in a season. This was CJ Verdell in 2018. This will likely cap both Ekeler’s and Kelley’s receiving ceiling, if a similar trend continues for the big-armed rookie. Another worrisome factor for the overall health of the Chargers’ offense is how the play calling will shift from Rivers — who averaged 583 pass attempts in the past five seasons — to Taylor, during his stint as the starter. Taylor has only attempted over 400 passes in two seasons of his career. In both years, 2016 and 2017, the Bills ran the ball more than they threw it.
Does Kelley have the ability to carve out a large enough share of that rushing attack? Or will teams stick with the vets that they know, rather than give new rookies opportunities?
However, I do see the lack of a big-bodied back in Inglewood as a positive for Kelley. He should be considered as an option to move up as high as 23rd in the rankings, surpassing Darrynton Evans and Zack Moss. Evans will be working behind last year’s true workhorse in Derrick Henry, and Moss will be splitting time with Devin Singletary.
Conclusion
Because of Kelley’s projected opportunity in 2020 to compliment Ekeler, and his above-average athletic profile, I support @CKarayannides claim that Kelley should be higher. I consider Kelley as a higher-upside option if you are considering Zack Moss. For now, Kelley moves up two spots to 28th overall.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join me and the DFF analysts for more insights on these rookies in the final article of this series. DFF Rookie Round Table, Part 10: Final Thoughts.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor, Part 2: Henry Ruggs III, Part 3: Tee Higgins, Part 4: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Part 5: AJ Dillon, Part 6: Bryan Edwards, Part 7: Antonio Gandy-Golden, Part 8: Zack Moss
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
