Capitalizing on overlooked trends as a fantasy manager is paramount to building a winning roster. The instantaneous news feed many of us rely on for fantasy information can be a deafening space of white noise.
Empty narratives get passed off as fact. Anyone with a social media login can affect the perception of a player. Here, I take a look at some of the hottest trending narratives in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or straight cap. Time to silence the echo chamber.
Ben Roethlisberger is Washed Up
In-Season Splits
109-170/1033 YDS/4 TD/3 INT
FACT
Ben Roethlisberger’s career averages have seen steep declines. Perhaps the most notable dropoff has come in his average depth of target (aDOT) ratings. A crippling Tommy John surgery to his throwing arm in 2019 has vastly limited the power once possessed by the Steelers longtime gunslinger. Ranked 33rd in aDOT in 2020 with 6.94 yards, per NextGen Statistics, Roethlisberger has continued that trend into 2021. Currently ranked 26th with an aDOT of 6.91, Big Ben is looking a lot like short yardage Ben these days. He had 58 pass attempts in a Week 3 loss to the Bengals. Only 12 of those pass attempts traveled more than ten yards. Roethlisberger has had more completions behind the line of scrimmage than he has had passes over ten yards in 2021. He has yet to finish above QB24 this season. Unless you play in leagues that start 3 quarterbacks, I see no need to hold Roethlisberger outside of bye week insurance.
Ja’Marr Chase has Trouble With Drops
In-Season Splits
17REC/25TGT/297YDS/4TD
CAP
It remains laughable that this was a common narrative in the preseason. Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, Ja’Marr Chase has only one dropped pass. Talking heads are collectively being buried in the sand for labeling Chase a bust before his first pro-snap. He is leading the Bengals in receiving yards (297) and receiving touchdowns (4). @NFLResearch stated Chase is the youngest player in NFL history to have four touchdowns in his first three games as a pro. He has translated these record-setting games into a WR11 ranking in PPR scoring. The chemistry between Chase and former collegiate teammate Joe Burrow is undeniable. According to palyerprofiler.com, Chase is being targeted on 23.36% of the Bengals’ pass attempts. He leads the Bengals’ receiving corps in offensive snaps (39) and routes run (86). Chase’s role will only grow as he continues to earn his stripes in the NFL. It has become clear that the lack of stripes on the ball has no bearing on his ascent to the top.
Zack Moss is the RB to Roster in Buffalo
In-Season Splits
35 RSH/147 YDS/3 TD – 5TGT/5REC/39YDS/1TD
FACT
Zack Moss began the 2021 season riding the pine on the injury report for the Bills. Despite seeing limited action in a Week 2 35-0 blowout against the Dolphins, he had a serviceable performance with two goal-line touchdowns in garbage time. Devin Singletary was used as the primary running back for Buffalo in those two games. During their Week 3 matchup against WFT, it was Moss who began to take leadership of the running back room. Moss out-snapped Singletary 44-34 in that contest and proved to be the more efficient option on the day. Moss took 13 carries for 60 yards as opposed to Singletary’s 11/26 split.
Moss was also the feature back in the passing game, adding 3 receptions for 31 yards and housing a score. Singletary finished the day with an empty box score in the receiving columns. Although Buffalo likes to run empty backfield sets, Moss is a premier pass blocker when asked to stay in. In 2020 Moss was deemed a pure pass protector by PFF 55 times, the 2nd most of any player. In those 55 plays, he allowed only one quarterback pressure, topping everyone in the league. Moss has all of the tools to supersede Singletary in the pecking order.
A.J. Brown is Droppable in Redraft
In-Season Splits
7REC/19TGT/92YDS/1TD
CAP
Ranked 70th in PPR points amongst wide receivers, managers are panicking on A.J. Brown. His roster percentage has fallen to a disrespectful 61% in redraft leagues. Brown missed most of the Titans’ previous game due to a nagging hamstring injury. Despite only playing eight snaps in Week 3, A.J. Brown still leads the team in targets. He has a resume of prolonged success in the Titans’ offense. In 2020 A.J. Brown finished as a top-24 or better wide receiver in eight weeks. Ryan Tannehill has been a pinnacle of mediocrity in 2021. I do not expect that trend to continue.
Over the past three seasons, Tannehill has ranked in the top six quarterbacks in true throw value (TTV) per BRotofantasy.com. The Titans quarterback ranked third in 2020, second in 2019, and sixth in 2018. Once Brown returns there will be positive regression in all passing efficiency metrics. If you are in a league with a manager that was impulsive enough to drop Brown, I suggest you empty your pockets on the next waiver bid.
Tony Pollard is the Most Valuable Handcuff in Fantasy
In-Season Splits
37 RSH/250 YDS/1 TD – 8REC/8TGT/65YDS/0TD
FACT
Tony Pollard has earned the respect to be a weekly viable flex option. The only thing more encouraging than Pollard’s current in-season splits is his usage splits with Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have 90 million reasons to feed Zeke volume until he collapses, yet they have begun the season with a running-back-by-committee approach. Pollard is currently seeing a 39.3% opportunity share in 2021, up from his 30.5% rate in 2020, as recorded by playerprofiler.com. Zeke’s opportunity share is 57.3% this season, a significant margin lower than his 71.9% in 2020.
The Cowboys running backs have now traded back-to-back weeks of RB1 performances. Head coach Mike McCarthy seems content on riding whoever has the hot hand in this backfield. Should Zeke miss any time due to injury, Pollard’s value would catapult into the top-12 fantasy running backs.
Mike Williams is the New Alpha
In-Season Splits (Prior to MNF)
23REC/35TGT/306 YDS/4TD
CAP
Mike Williams has all the top-end production of a superstar fantasy asset. His late-round ADP has given fantasy managers the warm feeling of stealing a league winner in their preseason drafts. Williams leads the Chargers in all counting statistics but Keenan Allen remains the priority target for sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert. Allen is leading all Chargers receivers in every conceivable usage metric on playerprofiler.com and BRotofantasy.com. Allen is averaging 17.6 PPR points per game and remains a locked-in WR1 in all fantasy formats.
Williams’ fifth-year breakout is certainly encouraging. Maintaining his incredible touchdown rate throughout the season is unlikely. As long as Allen is in town, Williams will be the second option in the passing attack. Although, he has proven to be one hell of a secondary option in 2021.
CeeDee Lamb is Surpassing Amari Cooper
In-Season Splits
20 REC/32 TGT/264 YDS/1TD
FACT
A presumptuous flip in ADP occurred in the offseason between the Cowboys’ duo of elite receivers. Amari Cooper had the track record of high-end success yet it was sophomore wideout CeeDee Lamb that was being favored by fantasy managers in drafts. Entering Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season it has become apparent the assumptions in a role reversal were correct. Lamb is leading the Cowboys in target share and target rate. He is receiving 24.8% of Dak Prescott’s pass attempts in 2021 while being targeted on 30% of his routes.
Cooper is riding high on the splits of a big first week in a shootout against the Buccaneers. Cooper is also nursing a cracked rib, and hamstring injury, further opening the window for Lamb’s alpha-level usage. Lamb has outplayed Cooper this season with more receptions, targets, and yards. His trajectory is only going to continue to rise. In fact, through the first three weeks, Lamb led the NFL in air targets before virtually disappearing from the box score in Week 4. Cooper will still get his but there is a new Alpha in Dallas.
James Conner’s Role is Growing
In-Season Splits
35RSH/122YDS/2TD – 1REC/1TGT/10YDS/0TDS
CAP
Do not mistake James Conner’s two-touchdown performance against the Jaguars as a role increase. Those receiving splits listed above tell a damning story in Conner’s outlook. Conner has been targeted only once through the Cardinals’ three victories. What makes this so discouraging, is the Cardinals have been heavily utilizing their running backs in the passing game. Chase Edmonds leads the team in receptions in 2021.
Edmonds has yet to find the end zone this season, something that will not last for long on the league’s number one scoring offense. Even more worrisome, is Edmonds leading the team in rushing despite having fewer carries than Conner. The former option struggles to create yardage for himself in open space with a paltry 3.7 yards per touch (YPT) in 2021. Edmonds ranks 14th in that category with 5.4 YPT. Edmonds is beginning to see his snap percentages rise as Conner continues to be phased out of the offensive game plan. Conner is merely a touchdown-dependent flex option in your weekly lineups.
Brandon Aiyuk’s Stock is On the Rise
In-Season Splits
6REC/11TGT/58YDS/1TD
FACT
Brandon Aiyuk has been the height of panic for fantasy managers in 2021. Luckily for those invested in his 5th round ADP, this promising young star is on the rise. After being completely ignored in the offensive game plans in Weeks 1 and 2, Aiyuk has finally shown signs of life. A hamstring injury suffered in the preseason has kept the sophomore wideout from reaching the level of productions he saw as a rookie. On an injury-riddled 49ers’ offense in 2020, Aiyuk led all rookie wide receivers with five weekly finishes in the WR1 tier.
Now with a healthy receiving corps, Aiyuk’s role seems to be in question. His talent, however, should not be. His route success percentages on Matt Harmon’s reception perception cement him as one of the elite separation artists in the NFL. Aiyuk posted above-average success rates on 9/10 routes on receptionperception.com’s route tree in 2020. The skill to succeed is undeniable. The usage between Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will even out. As Aiyuk’s volume increases, his production will follow. I would pursue all avenues to buy-low on Aiyuk diligently.
Melvin Gordon Will Remain Broncos RB1
In-Season Splits
51 RSH/248 YDS/2 TD – 8 REC/11 TGT/87 YDS/0 TD
CAP
The changing of the guard in the Broncos backfield is imminent. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have been locked into an even time-share since the inception of the 2021 season. Gordon has been slightly favored with 49 touches to Williams’ 45. Williams has kept pace in production with his teammate, despite the 70-yard touchdown run Gordon achieved in Week 1. As the season continues to wear on, so will Gordon’s legs. Gordon has not played in a full NFL season since 2017. In the last year of his contract with the Broncos, the team will undoubtedly look to develop Williams as the workhorse. A switch that appears to be coming faster than welcomed for Gordon truthers. If Gordon were to miss games for any reason, Williams would capture the number one role on the depth chart. If the younger running back catches fire, he may never relinquish that role.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff. Stay up to date on all of my content on Linktree: @PsychWardFF.
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