Dead To Me: Aaron Rodgers

In the first installment of this series, I took a deep dive into David Johnson and Evan Engram and why they’re “dead to me” in redraft. Once again, these players are not worthless, but they have consistently failed to pay off on their draft price, and I will not have them on my redraft teams anymore. Now, let’s dive into one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Why is Aaron Rodgers now “dead to me” for fantasy football purposes?

Given the name value of Aaron Rodgers and the fact that he’s a quarterback, I need to get two important things out of the way right at the top. First, I am not saying that Rodgers is no longer a successful, real-life NFL quarterback. In fact, I think he can still provide extreme value to the Packers and that the Packers can be a solid real-life NFL offense. Additionally, if you are playing in a 2QB or superflex format, ignore most of what I’m saying about Rodgers. Rodgers is still a QB1 and can be started every single week in those formats, where 24 quarterbacks are required every week.

However, let’s see how Rodgers has failed to produce for fantasy owners over the past three years. ADP values come from FantasyPros consensus ADP data.

Now, as I discussed in my early vs. late QB strategy article, I avoided drafting Rodgers in any of my leagues because I generally believe in a late-round quarterback strategy. For those who took Rodgers early, he burned you badly in all of the last three seasons.

Coming into 2017, Rodgers had just finished as the QB1 overall in 2016. His top three receivers: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb were all returning for 2017, so most fantasy players expected Rodgers to put up another top-tier season. Additionally, Ty Montgomery had become a versatile weapon out of the backfield, providing another option for Rodgers in the passing game. The Packers had also signed tight end Martellus Bennett, who had just had a strong 2016 season for the Patriots.

Despite the lofty expectations, Rodgers disappointed in 2017. He only played seven games due to a collarbone injury. Even though he still performed as a mid-QB1 during the games he played, he demolished fantasy owners who selected him with the 16th overall pick in drafts. Directly after Rodgers went Michael Thomas and Todd Gurley, who finished as the WR6 and RB1, respectively. Essentially, anyone who selected Rodgers gave up one of the top fantasy assets in exchange for a quarterback who didn’t even play the majority of the season.

Coming into 2018, expectations were once again high for Rodgers. While Nelson and Bennett had moved on, the Packers replaced them both. They signed Jimmy Graham to fill their void at tight end and drafted three rookie wide receivers: J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown. Also, 2017 rookie running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams had emerged to complement Montgomery in the backfield. With Adams and Cobb returning, Rodgers was once again the first quarterback drafted and still snuck into the back of the second round.

Unfortunately, everything went wrong for Rodgers in 2018. In the first game of the season against the Bears, he suffered a tibial plateau fracture and a sprained MCL. Even though he didn’t miss any time due to the injury, he seemed somewhat hobbled. His rushing yards per game fell to 16.8, his lowest mark since 2014. He was still exceptional as a passer, throwing for 25 touchdowns versus just two interceptions. He also threw for 4,442 yards and a 62.3 completion percentage. However, his touchdown rate fell to just 4.2%, far from his career average of 6.0%. Between his low touchdown rate and decreased rushing, Rodgers only finished as the QB6. Since he went in drafts as the QB1 with the 24th overall pick, his performance was another giant bust.

For 2019, I think fantasy owners were willing to give Rodgers one last chance. Based on his low touchdown % in 2018 and his injury, some expected Rodgers to have a bounce-back season. Rodgers’ receiving weapons didn’t change. Valdes-Scantling and veteran Geronimo Allison were supposed to compete for the number two receiver role behind Adams. Both had shown flashes in 2018, and both had fantasy hype trains in the 2019 offseason. While the Packers had traded Montgomery, both Jones and Williams had progressed in 2018, providing Rodgers two significant options out of the backfield. Even though Graham was on the back end of his career, the Packers had also drafted tight end Jace Sternberger to potentially at least begin to replace him. The Packers had also fired head coach Mike McCarthy and hired Matt LaFleur to take over. Since Rodgers and McCarthy had a poor relationship, most thought that a change at head coach could lead to better results from Rodgers.

Rodgers also finally became less expensive in drafts. He had fallen to the QB3 behind Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson and into the back of the fourth round. Considering his drop in price, some fantasy analysts recommended Rodgers as a draft value, as they expected him to compete with Mahomes for the QB1 overall.

Unfortunately, none of that upside came to pass in 2019. Unlike in 2017 or 2018, Rodgers remained healthy for the entire season, eliminating one excuse that many had made for Rodgers. Rodgers’ stat line remained similar compared to 2018. He threw for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Once again, he had a low touchdown rate, just 4.6%. The reason for this low rate was that Jones dominated the red zone touchdowns, scoring 16 total touchdowns on the ground, 14 of which came in the red zone.

While Jones scored a lot of red zone touchdowns, the pass-run ratio also changed throughout the entire Packers’ gameplan. In 2018, the Packers attempted 640 passes versus only 333 rushing plays. However, in 2019, they had 573 pass attempts and 411 rushes, a massive swing toward running the ball more. Therefore, the switch from McCarthy to LaFleur had been a net negative for Rodgers, not a positive. 

Because of all of these factors, Rodgers was extremely disappointing in 2019, finishing as the QB9. He also finished as the QB13 in points per game, so he wasn’t even a weekly QB1. Most concerning, Rodgers finished as a QB1 in only six of 16 weeks he played. That track record is unappealing for any non-streaming quarterback in redraft formats, let alone someone drafted as the QB3.  

Going into 2020, Rodgers’ name will once again cause him to be overdrafted. I’m sure the Packers will draft an offensive weapon early in the NFL Draft, and once again, fantasy players will value Rodgers as at least a mid-QB1. He’ll likely go in the sixth or seventh round, a price that is far too rich for me. I’m tired of three years of excuses, and I will enjoy watching people waste a mid-round draft pick on Rodgers in 2020.   

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.