Rookie

Rookie Stock Report: Week 7

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Philadelphia’s game against Tampa Bay was strange all-around and DeVonta Smith had one of his worst games of the season. The Eagles have a banged-up offensive line and all but abandoned the run game and pass inefficiently without it complimenting the play-action. It should also be noted that Zack Ertz, who lead the team in targets for the game, is now gone. DeVonta Smith should arguably be in the ‘To the Moon’ category, but the rookie’s value may be cheaper as we head into byes and his bad game. Teams will be evaluating if they’re ready to win or not and may want to sell for something more certain.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 6

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Khalil Herbert is set to be Chicago’s RB1 for Week 6 after an injury to David Montgomery and Damien Williams being placed on the Covid list. Fortunately enough Herbert has looked like a better prospect than his draft stock would indicate and has made the most of his touches. Herbert is an explosive downhill runner that is a better backup to Montgomery than Williams. If I could get him for cheap he’s a stash I’d love to have stashed on my roster.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 5

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Kenneth Gainwell is going to be annoying for everyone, but now is not the time to sell him. The Eagles are clearly running with a two-headed approach like most of the NFL and any week can be huge with his high receiving floor and red zone usage. Gainwell is a flexy starter that will be a boom or bust option every week but the receiving work has him already ranked ahead of “starter” Miles Sanders in all formats. Sanders was a product of the old regime and it appears the new staff has more trust in Gainwell to handle two-minute drill and scoring work. Running back is too thin for you to give up a young rookie with upside.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 4

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The Chuba Hubbard lottery ticket has finally hit, and it’s time for non-CMC owners to cash in while they can. Yes, you need to cash in. Hubbard doesn’t have great vision and doesn’t have the offensive line to overcome that major flaw. Hubbard isn’t anywhere near the talent of Christian McCaffrey and desperate owners competing would more than likely pay a second-round that could turn into an actual starter.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 2

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Nothing has changed for Justin Fields since last week. He got his own package to get a few plays just like Trey Lance, and completed two for two passing for 10 yards, and running it in for his first real touchdown. The current Bears starter still looks like a competent backup and not the guy you want starting when you’re an HC on the hot seat. Chicago’s rushing attack looks fantastic and will relieve pressure off the rookie once he takes the reins. I can’t wait to see more RPO play-calls with him and David Montgomery. The time for Fields to start is any day now, so buy now before he gets even more expensive than he is.

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Rookie Quarterback Mousetrap Revisited

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In 2020, Justin Herbert became the first rookie QB to throw for over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. He broke the NFL rookie record for TD passes and completions, in fact. As a result, Keenan Allen put together a more impressive season than any WR in our sample. Still, digging a little deeper, Allen did leave some meat on the bone. He finished as the WR7 in PPG despite seeing the second-most targets per game. He recorded a career-low of 9.9 yards per reception, as well. These minor inefficiencies can likely be chalked up to the growing pains of a rookie QB.

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Post-Rookie Draft Waiver Targets

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Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like James Robinson did last season. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later and might be tradeable for better assets (think Boston Scott, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Preston Williams, Collin Johnson, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.

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Rookie Face Plants

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Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy? We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010).  Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.

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2020 Rookie RBs Revisited

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Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.

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Rookie Quarterback Record Breakers

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With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft- 2021 Running Backs

Rookie RB Prospect Model: Regression Analysis

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Today’s fantasy landscape grows more and more complex. When evaluating rookie prospects we have so many different stats and metrics to look at. The hard part is figuring out which ones are important and which do not matter. That is where regression analysis can come in and play a large role. I will be using regression analysis to help build a predictive grading model that can be used to easily sift through many players to quickly identify guys to avoid and target. Our end goal when selecting rookies is who will be the best fantasy assets when they hit the NFL, and the best assets are the ones who score us the most fantasy points. To create my rookie model I used regression analysis and sorted through multiple different metrics to determine which correlated to NFL fantasy points per game (FP/G) the most and which correlated the least. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jaret Patterson to the WFT

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Jaret Patterson is a shifty runner with quick feet. He won’t blow you away with his 4.58 speed, but he was good at making people miss in college when working with minimal space. There were a lot of red flags on film with Patterson. Several times where bigger defenders were able to take him down without help. He’s hesitant at times when making the decision of which hole to hit. Patterson has excellent ball security and drive. He’s a competitor. He’s a fun player to watch, but I’m not sure his skills are going to translate in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jermar Jefferson to the Lions

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Jermar Jefferson broke out as a true freshman in 2018 as he garnered Freshman All-American, Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, and honorable mention all-conference honors with 1,380 rushing yards and 12 scores on 239 carries (5.8 per attempt). Jefferson also caught 25 passes for 147 yards that season, displaying his competence as a receiver. The following season, an ankle injury stunted his sophomore campaign limiting him to six starts in nine games played as he compiled 142 carries, 685 yards, and eight touchdowns. Jefferson rebounded in 2020, earning first-team All-Pac-12 accolades by ranking fourth in the FBS with 143 rushing yards per game and ninth with 159.5 all-purpose yards per game. He did miss one game due to COVID-19 protocols.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Tamorrion Terry signs with Seahawks

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Tamorrion Terry had 118 receptions for 2,221 yards in his three-year college career at FSU. Terry entered college on the older side as a 21-year-old redshirt freshman but made an immediate impact once he got on the field. He caught 35 receptions for 744 yards and eight touchdowns as a freshman but truly broke out as a sophomore catching 60 passes for 1,188 yards and nine touchdowns. Terry’s 2020 season was cut to just four games to a knee injury he underwent surgery for in October leading to him inevitably opting out. For that reason, we will focus on his 2019 season in teams of production. In 2019 he accounted for 32.20% of his team’s offensive production and 2.94 adjusted yards per team pass attempt. For context, Jerry Jeudy accounted for 2.98 adjusted yards per team pass attempt in 2019. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Gregory Rousseau to the Bills

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Gregory Rousseau is a part of the enormous list of players that hurt their draft stock by opting out. Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons were the only two players whose opt-outs didn’t affect their draft capital.  Unfortunately, our man Gregory Rousseau made a bad decision. Your author wrote about this back in September in the weekly seasonal “Draft Stock Watch” series. There is no arguing Rousseau’s superior athletic ability and speed around the edge. The DE out of Miami trailed only 2020 number two overall pick Chase Young in total sacks in the entire FBS in 2019.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Kylin Hill to the Packers

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Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Elijah Mitchell to the 49ers

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At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jaelon Darden to the Buccaneers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Jaelon Darden is one of your annual small-school stories where an incredible athlete, who was overlooked by large programs, emerges. Darden was a high school QB, so he possesses basic knowledge about reading coverages and finding openings in the defense. He played in all 14 games as a backup WR during his true freshman season compiling 281 yards and three TDs on 32 receptions, while also contributing as a punt and kick returner. While he still returned punts, Darden focused on offense as a sophomore, hauling in 48 receptions for 575 yards and four TDs. 

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