Rookie

Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Badie

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that still feels too low in the market but has a ton to like about him.

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Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC: Part 2

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Last summer I wrote about my historic FFPC dynasty rookie hit rates, and how those later picks in the third and fourth rounds typically hold at least a couple of gems. If you can find the space on the limited roster in this format, those later picks are worth scrapping for. I spend them just as easily. I never let a third-round pick get in the way of making a bigger deal that I like. Often I will add a third to my offer just to further entice my potential partner.

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

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For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Rachaad White

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has recently shot up boards and is now in pretty much everyone’s top-10, but that is still too low.

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Kevin Harris

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has NFL workhorse size and a great production profile but is somehow not in everyone’s top-12 rookie running backs yet.

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Running Back Edition

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Each year the NFL Combine hosts about 40 of the top college running backs from around the country who have declared for this year’s NFL draft. They then have these players perform drills, various tests, as well as weigh them and measure their heights. The test and measurements I will be looking at are the 40-yard dash and a back’s height, weight, and BMI.

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Quarterback Edition

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The NFL Combine officially kicked off this week, beginning with medical testing, team interviews, and of course, in-person measurements. NCAA schools are notorious for exaggerating size (aren’t we all). The combine gives us our first look at true-to-life measurements, including height, weight, wingspan, hand size, and BMI.

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

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Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – TE

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Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the TE position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. 

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – WR

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Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the WR position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. 

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – RB

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As an exciting offseason event known as the NFL Scouting Combine is about to unfold, it is fun to take a look at this year’s NFL prospects as they stand. With this data looming, as well as draft capital and NFL landing spots, it is important to note that these players are not locked in where they currently stand.

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – QB

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Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up first, the QB position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. 

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Jerome Ford

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that should be getting more recognition due to how his college team performed but is still being disrespected.

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Allgeier

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. This series is going to kick off with someone who is currently a sleeper but should be talked about at the top of this class.

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Post-Season Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Receivers 8-11

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It’s officially playoff time and we’re all living in a Covid-fueled fantasy hellscape as we’ve never seen before. Luckily, we play dynasty so we can say “Next season’s our year” like we’re Cowboy’s fans in January and think about the offseason. Rookies should be at the top of your buy and sell plans so we’ll continue our Dynasty Rookie Rankings series with the talent-packed 2021 receiver class. Make sure you’re caught up with the running back class.

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2022 NFL Draft Prospects: A WR Hype Sheet for CFB Bowl Week

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It’s Bowl Season, baby! For college football fans, nothing quite matches the heightened drama of often hilariously named season finales. I, for one, have reached a feverish enthusiasm. I cannot wait to begin grading prospects for my 2022 rookie drafts. I wanted to share that excitement with the #DFFArmy with a sneak peek into the market shares of some of my favorite wide receiver prospects. Consider this a “pre-Bowl” program of sorts. Let’s get to know the stars before they take center stage for their closing performances.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 11

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Michael Carter has been the RB3 over the last four weeks. Let that sink in. It’s worth reminding folks that the Jets’ running back has been leading the team in target and relying on this receiving volume might not always be sustainable but the talent is being noticed. The GM and coaching staff need to put all their effort into the offensive line this offseason before we see the rushing efficiency we’d want out of a running back but I continue to be encouraged by all the moves I’ve seen thus far. Buy him now while there are still those who doubt.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 9

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No touchdowns despite a decent rushing game that resulted in a flex-like game for Khalil Herbert. The Chicago offense looked much better while Matt Nagy was out (more on this later) and Justin Fields vultured opportunities after a healthy uptick in rushing usage.  It’s obviously disappointing to those hoping to have another RB2 performance before Montgomery’s return but consider this encouraging for all of our Chicago shares in the future. Herbert should have Tony Pollard-like upside in the future and is a hold no matter what.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 8

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Elijah Mitchell continues to dominate the 49ers ‘backfield and is running as efficiently as any player should in this system. Trey Sermon has been relegated to a special teams player and doesn’t seem to be a threat, however, JaMycal Hasty has returned and received 34% of the snaps as the third-down back. This will cap Mitchell’s receiving production but the 49ers have a running scheme that gives its players a chance to score anytime they touch the ball. Mitchell lacks size but has the burst to replicate Raheem Mostert’s production and can actually stay on the field. So far anyway. Mitchell should be considered the second-ranked rookie running back behind only Najee Harris.

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