Dynasty

Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III: Has the Hype Become Too Much of a Burden?

Dynasty / By /

Luther Burden III has one of the most inspiring backstories in the NFL. Rising from a tough childhood in East St. Louis to becoming a standout wide receiver for the Chicago Bears, his relentless work ethic and local pride are undeniable. However, heading into his second year, his skyrocketing fantasy football ADP has reached a point of “all gas, no brakes.” In high-stakes dynasty startups, investing heavily in the sophomore receiver is a risky proposition, and he is currently being drafted at overvalued levels.

The Hype vs. Reality

It is hard not to be a fan of Luther Burden III. After an electrifying rookie campaign in 2025, his value has soared.

I was thinking about writing an article comparing Justin Jefferson’s first-year rookie season to Burden’s. The rise, the hype, and the comparisons entering their second seasons. Given the hype in ADP over the past couple of months, the analytics show no comparison. While Burden is incredibly electric after the catch, his usage in Ben Johnson’s offense has been heavily concentrated around the line of scrimmage. His average target distance ranked near the bottom among starting wide receivers, making his weekly upside highly dependent on yards after the catch rather than high-value, downfield passing volume.

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Justin Herbert

One Question for EVERY NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers Edition

All Access, Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to my weekly series, and as always, thank you to everyone who read last week’s Philadelphia Eagles edition — what are you doing with Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) in Dynasty leagues? The NFC East was a fun division to look at and is always fun for fantasy! Now we’re heading out West to take a look at the AFC West, one of the more FanDuel Sportsbook and fantasy-friendly divisions of years past.

Our first stop will be in sunny Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium. There’s a lot to be excited about if you’re a Chargers fan or a fantasy football enthusiast. The Chargers may have made the best offseason move with the hiring of Mike McDaniel as their new offensive coordinator. When you consider the success McDaniel had in Miami with Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA), Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN), De’Von Achane (RB – MIA), and Tua Tagovailoa (QB – ATL), pairing McDaniel with Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC), Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC), Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC), Oronde Gadsden (TE – LAC), and Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) feels unfair! The biggest beneficiary of the McDaniel hire is Justin Herbert.

However, despite all of that optimism, the fantasy market hasn’t fully caught up yet. When looking at Herbert’s 2026 Superflex ADP on Dynasty Football Factory, he’s the ninth quarterback taken off the board and the 60th overall player. I believe Herbert is being undervalued given everything I mentioned above.

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mims

Roster Cloggers Are Quietly Killing Your Dynasty League – Part 2

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

Welcome back for Part 2 of my “Roster Clogger” series! In this article, we’ll be discussing some hard-hitting questions that are worth asking to identify those roster cloggers on your dynasty roster. Then, we’ll finish things up with some warning signs by position. 

If you missed Part 1, you can check that article out here. Let’s dive back in. 

The Roster Clogger Test

The best way to identify roster cloggers is to stop asking whether a player has any possible value and start asking sharper questions.

Almost every player has some possible value. That standard is too low.

Instead, ask these questions.

Can I Start This Player Confidently?

This does not mean, “Could I technically put him in my lineup?”

You can start almost anyone in a deep enough league.

The real question is whether you would feel good about it. If injuries hit and you need points, can this player realistically help you? Does he have a stable role? Does he have a path to volume? Can he get you something more than a desperation floor?

If the answer is no, he may not be actual depth.

He may just be a name on your bench.

Can I Trade Him for Anything Meaningful?

This is where dynasty managers need to be honest.

If no one in your league wants the player, his value might only exist in your head.

That does not mean you should blindly let your league determine every player’s worth. Dynasty managers can be early on players. Sometimes your league is wrong. Sometimes you should hold a player before the value shows up publicly.

But if a player has no production, no market, no clear role, and no rising value, you need a good reason to keep holding.

“Someone might want him someday” is not enough.

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hurts

One Question For EVERY NFL Team: Philadelphia Eagles Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to my One Question series, and thank you to everyone who read last week’s Washington Commanders edition — which Commanders running back are you drafting this season? We’ve now asked the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders their questions. That only leaves one team — the one and only Philadelphia Eagles!

After a drama-filled 2025 season and early playoff exit, it’s been quite the offseason for the Eagles. It feels like so long ago when Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) and his teammates were celebrating their Super Bowl LIX victory. Fast forward to today, and the Eagles have traded away three-time All-Pro receiver A.J. Brown (WR – NE), and Hurts’ future with the team is in question. With a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion — who just so happens to be Hurts’ 11th offensive coordinator dating back to his time in college — trading up to draft Makai Lemon (WR – PHI), what looks to be a prove-it year, and this being the final year of guaranteed money on his contract, all of the off-field drama, questions about his leadership, and his ability as a passer, in addition to an uncertain future in Philadelphia, has led fantasy managers to unload him off of their rosters before the 2026 season.

My question for the Philadelphia Eagles is: Is now the time to BUY Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) in fantasy?

No Stranger to Adversity

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) is no stranger to adversity. He was the first true freshman to start a game for the Alabama Crimson Tide, leading the team to consecutive National Championship game appearances in 2016 and 2017. In 2017, he would have his first real experience with adversity when he was benched in the second half in favor of Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA), and Alabama would go on to win the game without him.

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bateman

Roster Cloggers Are Quietly Killing Your Dynasty League – Part 1

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

very dynasty manager has that guy.

You won’t start him. You cannot trade him. You don’t really want to cut him. But every time you look at your roster, you convince yourself there is still something there.

Maybe he is young. Maybe he was a good prospect. Maybe he is one injury away from a major role. Maybe he had a few usable weeks two seasons ago (where you probably still regret sitting him). Maybe you remember liking him during rookie draft season and have not fully accepted that the bet is probably dead.

That’s not depth.

That’s what is called a roster clogger.

Roster cloggers are not always bad players. That is what makes them dangerous. The obvious bad players are easy to cut. The real problem is the player who gives you just enough hope to keep holding, but not enough production, trade value, or upside to help your dynasty team.

In dynasty, roster spots are assets. Every bench spot you use on a dead-end player is a bench spot you cannot use on a backup running back with real contingent upside, a young receiver gaining steam, a tight end earning routes, or a waiver player whose value could change quickly.

The question is not, “Can I make a case for this player?”

You can make a case for almost anyone in July.

The better question is this: is this player helping me win, helping me rebuild, or gaining value?

If the answer is no, he might be quietly killing your roster and therefore your season.

What Is a Roster Clogger?

A roster clogger is not simply a bad player. A bad player is easy to drop. A true roster clogger is a threat because he gives you reasons to keep holding.

He might have youth on his side.
He might have draft capital invested in him.
He might have flashed once.
He might be tied to a good offense.
He might be one injury away.
He might be a tight end who “just needs time.”

There is always a story.

That’s the trap.

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How NFL Personnel Tendencies Are Reshaping Fantasy Value

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

Over the past couple of years, you’ve probably heard NFL and fantasy analysts discussing a shift in the offensive meta, specifically the rise of 12 and 13-personnel packages. But what does it actually mean, and does it have any real impact on your dynasty teams?

The short answer is yes. In today’s article, I’ll break down the “why” behind it, but first, let’s make sure we’re all speaking the same language.

If you’re unfamiliar, here’s what it means when someone refers to “X-personnel”:

11 personnel — 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12 personnel — 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
13 personnel — 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
21 personnel — 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
22 personnel — 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR

These five groupings make up the majority of NFL play-calling year over year, and the balance between them is shifting in ways that matter for how you build your roster and prioritize certain fantasy players.

For this article, I pulled NFL leaguewide data dating back to 2022 from sumersports.com, and have confirmed that TE-heavy packages are steadily increasing, while 11 personnel is decreasing across the league. 

Below, you’ll see a graph breaking down how the five most popular formations have trended from 2022 to 2025:

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Dalton Kincaid: 2026 TE Skeleton Key or Just Another Part-Timer?

Dynasty / By /

The tight end position is a tough one to pin down in fantasy. You either have one of the elite options who helps you stand above your league mates — just ask anyone who has had Travis Kelce for the past decade — or you’re stuck playing roulette with a bunch of middling options. 

Unfortunately, Kelce’s run is over. The top shelf tight ends are now guys like Brock Bowers, who caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards as a rookie in 2024, and Trey McBride, who set an NFL record for tight ends with 126 receptions last year. Those two stand alone at the top, although some are trying to push Colston Loveland up into that tier. I just don’t think he’s there yet. We need to see more from last year’s No. 10 overall pick before we start anointing him. 

A little further down the rankings, though, sits a very intriguing player — one who, at 26 years old, should be entering his prime. I’m talking about Dalton Kincaid. 

Buffalo took Kincaid in the first round in 2023, and as a rookie, he looked the part. He reeled in 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores in Year 1. The future looked insanely bright. Dynasty managers thought they had the next big thing. 

After that promising start, though, things haven’t been quite as rosy. Kincaid has dealt with several injuries, including a troublesome PCL issue that has been lingering since 2024. That has caused Kincaid to miss nine games and limited him in several others over the past two seasons. 

Last year, he had just a 38.3% snap share (TE70) and ran only 189 routes (TE47), which resulted in career lows in both targets (49) and receptions (39). He still managed 571 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring, good for TE13.

So why am I talking about this guy? 

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Malik Nabers

One Question For EVERY NFL Team: New York Giants Edition

Dynasty / By /

When we look at the Giants, it’s easy to get excited, concerned, and confused. When will Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) be back? How good of a season can Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) have without his number one wide receiver? Is Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG) the best bet to make in the Giants’ offense? Can both Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG) and Tyrone Tracy (RB – NYG) be fantasy viable this season? Is John Harbaugh the missing link to the Giants’ return to glory?

Those are all legitimate questions, concerns, and reasons to be optimistic about the Giants’ offense in fantasy.

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USATSI 29213158

Biggest Dynasty Ranking Discrepancies

Dynasty / By /

Earlier this offseason, I wrote a similar piece, breaking down the biggest gaps between my devy rankings and those of DFF ranker @Evan_Kerr_. Today, I’m covering the dynasty players where I’m furthest from consensus here at DFF, which averages my rankings with those of Evan and @force_fantasy. Some of these might not seem like huge discrepancies, but keep in mind my rankings make up a third of what consensus spits out, so the value differences are bigger than they may seem.

As always, these rankings are based on dynasty, Superflex, and Tight End Premium scoring. I’ll provide my positional ranking for comparison with the consensus. 

Players I’m Above Consensus On
Luther Burden III – (WR – CHI)
My dynasty rank – WR14
DFF consensus – WR18

Here’s my bull case for Burden, plain and simple. He and Loveland were hand-selected by HC Ben Johnson. Rome Odunze was not. 

It took some time for Burden to get fully acclimated, but we saw his upside in the latter part of his rookie year. Through the final seven weeks of 2025, Burden finished third in the NFL in yards per route run with 2.92 (min. 20 targets). He posted a robust 26.8% target rate during that span, confirming he was a focal point in Chicago’s passing attack. 

Exptrapolate that kind of efficiency over a 17-game sample and a full route share now that D.J. Moore is gone, and you have a guy who could finish top 10 at his position in fantasy. I think there’s a very good chance Burden is a consensus WR1 (top 12) in dynasty by this time next year. 

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jcm

One Question For EVERY NFL Team: Washington Commanders Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to my One Question series, and thank you to everyone for reading my first installment. I’d love to know what you’ve done or plan to do with George Pickens (WR – DAL) this year. This week, we’re staying in the NFC East.

After a disappointing season following their appearance in the 2024 NFC Championship Game, Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) and the Commanders didn’t live up to the hype due to an injury-riddled season. After firing offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and promoting David Blough, the offense is headed in a new direction — and there is genuine excitement within the organization about the new offensive style.

My question to the Commanders is: Who is the RB1?

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt — aka “Bob” — was a Twitter darling last offseason with only Brian Robinson Jr. in his way, playing alongside 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. What’s not to like? He was primed to take over the Commanders’ backfield and be a league-winner, or so we thought.

Daniels got injured early in the season, tried to fight through it, and ultimately played just seven games. However, even on a bad team with a struggling offense, Croskey-Merritt played all 17 games, totaled almost 900 yards from scrimmage, and scored eight touchdowns — all while playing second fiddle to Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez for most of the season.

Robinson is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and Rodriguez took his talents to Jacksonville. Surely Croskey-Merritt is the favorite to finally make good on his promise as the Commanders’ lead back, right?

One would think. But with Washington adding veteran running backs Rachaad White (RB – WAS) and Jerome Ford (RB – WAS), then drafting sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen (RB – WAS), the question becomes: is Croskey-Merritt the running back on this roster we should trust — or should we take a deeper look at the competition?

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johnston

Top Dynasty Value for Each AFC East & West Team 

Dynasty / By /

*Positional rankings in this article were pulled from Dynasty Football Factory’s Consensus Rankings

AFC East
Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid (TE14)

Dalton Kincaid is a frustrating player to have in fantasy. He’s uber-efficient on a per-route and per-touch basis, yet he gets on the field an exasperatingly low amount due to injuries and a somewhat one-dimensional profile. 

Despite a measly 38.3% snap share (TE70) in 2025, Kincaid finished as the TE13 on average, putting up 10.5 fantasy points per game. He accomplished that with some insane per-touch output, ranking first at the position in yards per route (3.02), first downs per route (0.143), yards per target (11.7), and QB rating per target (149.2). If his knee ever allows him to handle a full workload, Kincaid could break fantasy. Sadly, that may never happen.

Miami Dolphins – Caleb Douglas (WR133)

Expected to be a late-round selection, Caleb Douglas was a shocking pick when Miami selected him in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. Looking at his measurables, though, it’s easy to see why the Dolphins liked him. He’s 6’4”, 206 pounds and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine — numbers that will turn some heads.

Douglas can burn past defenders, and he uses his height effectively to high-point the football. Those skills helped him rack up 845 yards and seven scores at Texas Tech last season. Given his draft capital, Douglas will have a chance to carve out a role in a receiver room bereft of playmakers. Anytime after Round 20 of startups or Round 3 in rookie drafts is a perfect time to take a swing on him. 

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George Pickens

One Fantasy Question For EVERY NFL Team: Dallas Cowboys Edition

Dynasty / By /

As the offseason progresses and news from OTAs enters the echo chamber that is the fantasy community on Twitter (or X, if you’re weird and literal) not all news is good news, unless you’re a Parker Washington stan and more importantly, not all news is relevant for fantasy, and should always be taken with a grain of salt.

We must remember, these guys are running around without pads on, playing seven on seven. We’re all excited for news updates and with the latest trades of A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots and Myles Garrett going to the Los Angeles Rams (my favorite team to win the Super Bowl, fyi) it’s hard not to get excited about any and all NFL news, especially for us fantasy guys.

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flowers

Top Dynasty Value for Each AFC North & South Team

Dynasty / By /

*Positional rankings in this article were pulled from Dynasty Football Factory’s Consensus Rankings

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers (WR22)

At least here at DFF, we have Zay Flowers priced a little more appropriately. For some reason, last season’s WR7 in total fantasy points is currently sitting at WR27 over at KeepTradeCut. Still, I’m more aggressive than nearly everyone in the industry, with him at WR15 in my personal rankings. 

He’s the top target for Lamar Jackson and in his prime as he enters his age-26 season. In addition to the top-notch raw stats, Flowers also posted some elite efficiency metrics in 2025: first in juke rate (22.9%), fourth in explosive plays (21), fifth in yards per route run (2.62), and sixth in target separation (2.15) among all wideouts. As long as I can get him for low-end WR2, high-end WR3 prices, I’m picking Flowers all day long. 

Cincinnati Bengals – Tee Higgins (WR25)

While he’s never going to be the first option in Cincinnati’s passing attack, Tee Higgins is still a highly productive fantasy receiver. Even while missing seven games over the past two seasons, he’s racked up back-to-back campaigns with over 800 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Playing second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins ranked second in the league in receiving scores (11) and 13th in fantasy points per game (14.1) last season. 

Like Flowers, I’m higher on Higgins than most. He’s my WR16 since he’s tied to Joe Burrow in an offense that loves to sling the rock. As long as he stays healthy, Higgins should flirt with WR1 output once more, making him an attractive add at cost for any manager playing for a championship this season. 

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Eli Heidenreich 2

Late Round Dynasty Gem: Eli Heidenreich

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Within the Dynasty Fantasy Football community, most die-hard Dynasty enthusiasts have heard the name Eli Heidenreich. But the main question is: does he have potential? After being selected by his hometown Steelers in the seventh round (230th overall), he’s a very underrated player who would have gone a bit higher if he had played at a larger college football program and gotten more national recognition. Heidenreich will land on the Philadelphia Eagles schedule on November 22 and is an intriguing hybrid offensive player with elite pass-catching ability. When digging deeper into the analytics on Heidenreich, he’s actually an intriguing prospect who has all the talent to become a hidden gem of Dynasty rookie drafts. Let’s dive in! 

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javonte

Top Dynasty Value for Each NFC East & West Team

Dynasty / By /

You mean to tell me I can get a 26-year-old bell-cow, tied to a long-term contract, in an explosive offense at only RB19 prices? Sign me up all day. Javonte Williams averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game last season, good for RB11. After racking up 1,338 total yards and 13 touchdowns in his first season with the Cowboys, Williams re-upped with Dallas, and he’s now locked in as the unquestioned RB1. 

He’s not the most electric back in the game, but volume is king, and he should get plenty of it again in 2026. With only Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue behind him, Williams could push for 300 touches this season. Low-end RB1 output is in play once again, and you only have to pay a low-end RB2 price to get him.

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Jayden Daniels

High School Recruiting Stars vs. NFL Draft Capital: What Actually Matters for Dynasty Fantasy Football

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to determine whether 4- and 5-star players are the ones we should be targeting each year in our drafts. On average, there are about 22 4+ stars each year for the quarterback position. I wanted to look at the current landscape of the top 24 quarterbacks on KeepTradeCut to see what they were rated when they came out of high school. The high school star rating is from 247Sports.

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Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity. 

Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year.  Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.

Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”

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My Top-Owned Dynasty Rookies

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

This weekend, we wrapped up my final dynasty rookie draft of the offseason (outside of my home dynasty league, which drafts during the preseason). With rookies now rostered in 17 of my 18 leagues, I thought it was a good time to discuss my top-owned dynasty rookies. 

Using the “exposure” feature in the Dynasty Control Room, I’m able to see my ownership percentage of every single fantasy player. Being a “portfolio manager” in 18 leagues, this feature is especially useful, showing me who I need to invest more heavily in, as well as the guys I should look to lower my exposure on. The tool also shows you which players DFF expert consensus is above and below market on, to give you an idea of whether you’re investing in the right players. 

With that, let’s take a look at my top 5 most-owned rookies right now. 

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