Over the past couple of years, you’ve probably heard NFL and fantasy analysts discussing a shift in the offensive meta, specifically the rise of 12 and 13-personnel packages. But what does it actually mean, and does it have any real impact on your dynasty teams?
The short answer is yes. In today’s article, I’ll break down the “why” behind it, but first, let’s make sure we’re all speaking the same language.
If you’re unfamiliar, here’s what it means when someone refers to “X-personnel”:
- 11 personnel — 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
- 12 personnel — 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
- 13 personnel — 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
- 21 personnel — 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
- 22 personnel — 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
These five groupings make up the majority of NFL play-calling year over year, and the balance between them is shifting in ways that matter for how you build your roster and prioritize certain fantasy players.
For this article, I pulled NFL leaguewide data dating back to 2022 from sumersports.com, and have confirmed that TE-heavy packages are steadily increasing, while 11 personnel is decreasing across the league.
Below, you’ll see a graph breaking down how the five most popular formations have trended from 2022 to 2025:
Some things worth noting from this chart:
- 11-personnel dropped from 61% to 56% in 2025, which was the largest single-year dip in this dataset.
- 12-personnel has steadily risen each year (17% to 22%).
- 13-personnel jumped sharply in 2025 (from 3.6% to 5.4%).
Fantasy Takeaways
WR3s Suffer
So, what do these numbers all mean? With 11-personnel snaps falling well below 60% and continuing to trend downward, the WR3 on NFL rosters (which is often the “slot-only” player) is running fewer routes and, as a result, seeing less target share. The traditional slot receivers who lack the versatility to play X or Z are the ones who see the hit, with the F-tight end position often stealing much of their work.
One good example of this would be Josh Downs (though with Michael Pittman gone and reports of Downs playing all around the field in OTAs, hopefully those days are behind us). Though the Colts still utilized 11-personnel more than most teams in 2025, they had a huge drop in usage from 2024, which ate into Downs’ fantasy ceiling considerably.
Another example of this would be DeMario Douglas, though for slightly different reasons. The Patriots’ 11-personnel usage dropped from 60% to 49% in 2025, utilizing a ton of 2RB sets in its place. With Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins coming over, as well as the emergence of Kayshon Boutte, it pushed Douglas down the totem pole, where he saw 150 fewer routes in 2025. With very few 3WR sets, Douglas went from a decent flex option to a roster clogger in one year.
TEs are the Winners
The steady climb of 12-personnel (and the 2025 surge in 13-personnel) means TE usage is at an all-time high. As this trend continues, the “move TE” types who are more like hybrid receivers will become even more valuable. We can think of these guys as WRs, but with the added option of placing them in the TE spot on our fantasy rosters. As a result, elite tight ends are getting even more expensive in fantasy, and those tight ends who can’t be trusted in-line still have plenty of fantasy upside.
A good example of this is Harold Fannin, who finished as the TE6 overall as a rookie, despite playing alongside longtime veteran David Njoku. The Cleveland Browns led the NFL in 12-personnel usage in 2025 (41%), meaning both guys were on the field quite a bit, allowing Fannin’s receiving skills to shine.
This is also why I’m not worried about the arrival of Njoku for Oronde Gadsden’s dynasty value. With a creative OC like Mike McDaniel, the Chargers will likely use a ton of heavy-TE sets, which should keep Gadsden’s route participation at a reasonable level. He’s clearly the best receiving TE on the team, and McDaniel will make sure his skillset is maximized. If anything, Tre Harris will be the one most affected, as he’ll be the odd man out in 2WR sets with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston ahead of him.
The 2025 13-personnel spike is interesting as well, seeing a jump from 3% to 5% in 2025. The Rams led the way in this category with a whopping 30% usage, which could help Terrance Ferguson become fantasy-relevant, despite competing with so many other guys on the depth chart.
2RB Sets are Dropping
Running backs in two-back sets are nearly extinct (except for the New England Patriots). 21 personnel dropped from 9% to 6% since 2022, with 19 NFL teams using this formation less than 5% of the time in 2025.
However, this doesn’t mean a team’s RB2 is any less intriguing an investment. Committee backfields are becoming increasingly popular, with fewer RBs seeing 300+ carries in a season than ever before. RBs like Rico Dowdle, RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, and Kenneth Gainwell have all had standalone fantasy value due to this “RB by committee” approach that most NFL teams have adopted.
The Bottom Line
If you leave with anything from this article, it should be this: receiving TEs are seeing more opportunity to run routes and produce, and the WR3s are becoming less relevant as a result.
What does this mean for the top wide receivers? The target distribution will be more concentrated in their favor, increasing efficiency and their overall fantasy ceiling. A great example of this is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, where Seattle’s 41% 11-personnel usage in 2025 ranked 29th in the NFL. Obviously, JSN is an elite talent and won’t be leaving the field, and running in more 2WR sets than 3WR sets typically means more targets coming his way.
This is why Ladd McConkey has seen a surge in dynasty value this offseason, despite such a poor 2025 campaign (relative to expectations). With Keenan Allen unsigned and the Chargers bringing in two TEs in Njoku and Charlie Kolar, they will likely be utilizing more 2WR (heavy-TE) sets. Assuming the Chargers’ front office agrees that Ladd is the clear WR1 in this offense, this should mean better per-route efficiency and more target volume in Year 3 for him. (He’ll just be playing less in the slot than in prior years.)
My last piece of advice is to be cautious about investing in a team’s WR3, especially those in a slot-only role. While the slot position is incredibly fun for PPR formats, it’s the spot that gets replaced in favor of move TES in these heavy-TE sets. Guys like Jayden Reed may never see enough routes to be trusted in fantasy as a result. This schematic shift also pushes up the value of players like Eli Stowers, who may be entering his rookie year as the TE2 on the depth chart, but may get more opportunities than many are expecting.
Thanks for taking the time to check out today’s article! If you have any dynasty, devy, or C2C-related questions, I can be reached on X @jim_DFF. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
