Dynasty

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Building My Dynasty: A Full Startup Draft Breakdown

Dynasty / By /

In today’s article, I’m breaking down my most recent dynasty startup draft, covering everything from my draft strategy to player values and roster construction. The goal is to leave you with a few ideas you can take into your own startup drafts this offseason. In this particular draft, I was able to construct a team I believe can compete in Year 1 while being built for long-term dominance. With the help of the DFF Dynasty Control Room, I was able to maximize value by reviewing consensus big boards and checking “top players available” with every pick. According to DFF consensus, it paid off, as I finished with the best draft class in the league.

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“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

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“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 5-8

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I’m bananas for Burden. This is about the area I like to start swinging for upside, and Luther Burden has it in droves. He finished his rookie year on a strong note and ended up with 652 receiving yards and two scores on 47 receptions. But it’s the underlying metrics that get me all hot and bothered: WR2 in target separation (2.62), WR3 in yards per route run (2.79), and WR4 in QB Rating per target (123.1). With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, Burden is set to take on a larger role in Ben Johnson’s offense going into Year 2. 

Fade: Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

There’s a lot to like about Quinshon Judkins; I just wish he wasn’t in such a bad situation and coming off serious leg injuries. He broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in his right leg late in December. That’s a tough thing to come back from, even at 22 years old. He’ll be fine eventually, but even before that, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry behind a piss poor Cleveland offensive line. His 12.1 fantasy points per game were only good for RB25. Maybe in Round 6 or 7, I can talk myself into it. But in the fifth round, I want a rock-solid back I can feel good about. I don’t get that feeling with Judkins.

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Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 1-4

Dynasty / By /

Fresh off winning Offensive Player of the Year after a brilliant 2025 campaign, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect cornerstone to build your dynasty team around. He only recently turned 24 years old and has been as durable as they come, never missing a game in his three-year career thus far. With back-to-back seasons of over 100 catches, JSN is the focal point of Seattle’s offense and should continue to be for years to come. He’s an easy click in Round 1 if I have the chance to draft him. 

Fade: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

Older than you might think, Joe Burrow will turn 30 before the 2026 season concludes. And while he’s not an immobile statue in the pocket, he really doesn’t add much fantasy production with his legs. For him to pay off first round draft capital, Joe Brrr needs to have extreme outlier seasons in the passing department. He’s capable of it — like in 2024 when he threw for 4,913 yards and 43 scores — but he’s also missed substantial time in three of his six pro seasons and remains an injury risk. 

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Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.

I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.

I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.

Below are the names of those 13 guys.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Brenen Thompson

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In 2025, Thompson was third-team All-SEC. He set a Mississippi State single-season record with 1,054 receiving yards, was the first Mississippi State player to lead the SEC in receiving yards, and led the SEC in average depth per target. He was also a nominee for the Conerly Trophy (top player in Mississippi) and made the Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Thompson is projected as a 4th-round selection by NFL Mock Draft Database, and Lance Zierlein has a player comparison to J.J. Nelson.
STRENGTHS
Thompson is a smaller-built vertical threat who has an eye-popping 39.8 yards per touchdown catch. Seven of these ten career touchdowns have come on plays of 42 yards or more. Clearly, he’s a dynamic playmaker based on these statistics alone. His speed allows him to have easy wins over the top that require safety help in man coverage. Thompson shows a shifty release against press coverage and runs past cornerbacks before they can even turn and run. He adds an immediate vertical dimension that can loosen defenses.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Robert Henry Jr.

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Robert Henry Jr. signed with the Washington Commanders after going undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft. 
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Robert Henry Jr. began his career at Jones College, a community college in Mississippi. He produced as a true freshman, but his breakout came in 2022 as a sophomore. That season, Henry rushed for over 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns, earning first-team NJCAA All-American honors. 

Following this noteworthy season, Henry transferred up to D1 football, playing for the Roadrunners of UTSA. He made the jump with no issues, rushing for 11 touchdowns in 2023. This past season was his best one for UTSA, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards and finding the endzone nine times on the ground. He was used minimally in the receiving game, but did have two receiving touchdowns in 2025. 

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Kevin Coleman Jr.

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Coleman began his college career at Jackson State, finding some success as a true freshman on his way to 475 receiving yards and three touchdowns. 

Coleman transferred up to Louisville for his sophomore season, where he was relegated to a part-time role, running just 222 total routes. He finished that season third on the team in receptions and receiving yards, behind Jamari Thrash and Chris Bell. 

Following the 2023 season, Coleman transferred again to Mississippi State, where he posted the best numbers of his career. He was a focal point in the Bulldogs’ offense, nearly hitting 1,000 receiving yards and finding the endzone six times. 

If you’ve caught on at this point, you probably guessed right. Coleman transferred for a THIRD time, closing out his senior year at Missouri. His numbers took a dip in his final season, posting 66 receptions for 732 yards and just one touchdown. 

As a whole, Coleman finished his career with 1.98 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 21.3% target rate, both fairly pedestrian numbers for an NFL-caliber prospect. He’s purely a slot receiver, running 92% of his routes in the slot in college. 

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Eric McAlister

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McAlister attended Azle High School in Azle, Texas, where he caught for 2,947 yards and 43 touchdowns in his final two seasons. He was rated as a three-star recruit and committed to play college football for the Boise State Broncos over offers from schools such as Nebraska, San Diego State, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Boise State

In week 10 of the 2022 season, McAlister hauled in two receptions for 33 yards and his first career touchdown versus BYU.He finished the 2022 season with 11 receptions for 259 yards and four touchdowns. In week 10 of the 2023 season, McAlister notched eight receptions for 85 yards in a 37–30 loss to Fresno State. He finished the 2023 season with 47 receptions for 873 yards and five touchdowns for the Broncos. Late in the 2023 season, with three games remaining, he stepped away from the team and entered his name into the NCAA transfer portal.

TCU

McAlister transferred to play for the TCU Horned Frogs in 2024, where he had two productive seasons. McAlister combined for 111 receptions, nearly 2,000 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns. His final season was most impressive, with 1,190 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Some Red Flags

TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister was arrested on a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

He was also charged with a second count of terroristic threat, causing fear of imminent serious bodily injury, which is a misdemeanor. According to his indictment, he was accused of threatening a man with a gun.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Tanner Koziol

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Koziol began his career at Ball State in 2022, where he was an immediate producer, posting 35 receptions for 379 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman. After a small regression in his sophomore year, Koziol broke out in Year 3, finishing with 94 receptions for 840 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Following his big junior year, Koziol made the jump to the Power 4, transferring to Houston for his final season. He continued finding success against tougher competition, proving to be one of Conner Weigman’s most reliable targets in 2025. He closed out his senior year with 74 receptions for 727 yards and six touchdowns. He led all FBS tight ends in both targets (94) and receptions in 2025. 

Koziol’s efficiency over his final two seasons indicates he should be a very fantasy-friendly player if he manages to see the NFL field consistently. He averaged 2.12 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 29.4% target rate, both excellent marks for a tight end. 

Screenshot 2026 04 26 5.26.59 PM

FILM

Below is a snippet of my film breakdown for Koziol in our 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide:

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Cole Payton

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Cole Payton took a big step forward in 2025 when he finally got the keys to the offense full-time.

He finished the season completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,719 yards, with a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On top of that, he averaged 12.1 yards per attempt, which tells you he wasn’t just taking easy throws. He was pushing the ball downfield.

What really adds to his profile is what he can do with his legs. He added 777 rushing yards, which shows he’s not just mobile; he’s a real part of the run game.

This was a big jump for him, especially after being used more in a limited role earlier in his career. In 2025, he showed he can handle being the guy.

Payton stats

FILM

When you’re scouting a quarterback, it’s not about what happened. It’s about why it happened. And with Cole Payton, the traits are what stand out.

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