Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’m taking a closer look at my 2022 redraft rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. Today I’ll be diving into the WR position.
Make sure you check out the QB Spotlight and RB Spotlight, as well as my full Redraft Rankings, before your draft gets underway!
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins – WR11
Over the past five seasons, Tyreek Hill has finished as the WR6, WR2, WR11, WR4, and WR7 in PPG. Drafters on Sleeper are clearly expecting more of the same from Hill in 2022, taking him as the WR7. I’m more skeptical.
We have to account for the downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. With a lesser QB, Tyreek Hill will need more volume to maintain the same level of production he provided in Kansas City. In 2021, the Chiefs ranked 2nd in pass attempts per game and Hill finished 7th overall in targets. Even if his target share rises from 25% to 27%, a mark hit by just eight WRs last season, his volume is still likely to decrease. New head coach Mike McDaniel ran the offense in San Francisco last season, which ranked 31st in pass attempts per game despite a talented group of pass-catchers.
Tyreek Hill is a fine 3rd-round pick with low-end WR1 upside, but there are better options available at his current price.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks – WR26
D.K. Metcalf finished as the WR23 in PPG last season with Russell Wilson appearing in fourteen games. Now Russell Wilson is in Denver, leaving Geno Smith and Drew Lock in his place, and Metcalf is coming off the board as the WR18.
In the past, WRs like DeAndre Hopkins have posted big fantasy numbers despite awful QB play. This is the sort of outcome that drafters are hanging their hat on with D.K. Metcalf. However, the Seattle offense could be atrocious this season. The Seahawks ran three fewer plays per game than the next closest team in 2021, and now they have arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL.
The other key factors are target share and pass attempts. DeAndre Hopkins had a 31% target share in his legendary 2015 season, which allowed him to thrive despite subpar play from Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. The Texans also cracked the top ten in pass attempts that season.
Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf saw just 23% of Geno Smith’s targets in their three games together last season. Tyler Lockett actually out-targeted him. To make matters worse, the Seahawks have finished dead last in attempts per game twice since 2018, ranking no higher than 20th during that span.
D.K. Metcalf has the talent to finish higher than WR26, but there are players with a clear path to more opportunities in better offenses that I cannot ignore. So, for these reasons, D.K. finds himself clustered with the likes of Brandin Cooks, Darnell Mooney, and Elijah Moore–other talented WRs with question marks at QB.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets – WR28
Speaking of Elijah Moore, I am much higher than the consensus on this second-year WR. His situation is quite similar to Metcalf’s–with inferior target competition–yet drafters are allowing him to slip all the way to WR38, after players like Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Hopkins.
As a rookie, Elijah Moore averaged 8.6 targets in games where he played over 50% of the snaps. He finished as a top-ten WR three times in his last five appearances. As a full-time player in year two, Moore’s ceiling is incredibly high.
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots – WR50
With an ADP of WR61, Jakobi Meyers looks like one of the best values for 2022. His target share has ranked inside the top 24 in back-to-back seasons, and he finished 2021 as the WR35 in PPG with just two TDs and a rookie QB under center. Even with the addition of DeVante Parker, his current cost represents a massive overcorrection.
Meyers could cede some targets to Parker and still replicate his production from last season through TD regression and a minor leap from Mac Jones. There are ceiling concerns for Meyers, which is the reason I haven’t ranked him even higher. His best-case outcome is somewhere in the low-end WR2 range. But despite his limited upside, Meyers is a fantastic pick at ADP, especially as your WR5 or WR6.
Thanks for reading this article! You can find me on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you have any more best ball questions or just want to share your favorite tournament teams!
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