Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’ll take a closer look at my 2022 Redraft Rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. We’ll start with the QB position. Make sure you check out my full Redraft Rankings before your draft gets underway!
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – QB1
Josh Allen is the first QB selected in almost every draft, which makes perfect sense given his recent track record. What does not make sense is how early he is being drafted. According to Sleeper’s ADP, Allen is the 19th player off the board. Drafting a QB in the late second round is not a winning strategy, especially when QBs with identical upside (see: Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts) are available over three rounds later. My rankings reflect a clear top six at QB. Josh Allen is still the best of the bunch, but the gap between him and Jalen Hurts, my QB6, is just 16 slots.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers – QB7
With an ADP of QB13 on Sleeper, Trey Lance is 2022’s signature late-round QB. He has all the rushing upside of Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts and an elite trio of receiving weapons. Outside of the top six QBs, I believe Trey Lance has the best odds of finishing as the QB1 in 2022. That’s why I have him ranked as my QB7, ahead of superstars like Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow. Lance isn’t a better QB than those two, or many others ranked behind him, but he does have a clearer path to elite fantasy production–mobility.
Even if Trey Lance struggles as a passer, he can still rack up fantasy points. Just look at Jalen Hurts, who finished as the QB6 in PPG last season despite ranking 29th in pass attempts per game and 21st in passing yards. Hurts also finished outside the top 25 in true passer rating, true completion percentage, and pressured completion percentage. But it didn’t matter because he rushed 139 times for 784 yards and 10 TDs. The common argument against Lance is that he’s unproven. To that I say, so what? Breakout players are always unproven. That’s why they’re available at a discount.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – QB9
Joe Burrow was almost perfect last season. He finished first in yards per attempt, second in true passer rating, third in TD rate, first in deep ball accuracy, and second in expected points added. Yet he finished just ninth in fantasy PPG. This is the problem with pocket passers: they lack upside. I do expect Joe Burrow to attempt more passes in 2022, but I also expect his efficiency to regress. This leaves him as my QB9, significantly lower than his Sleeper ADP of QB5.
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – QB22
In 2020, Marcus Mariota played one full game. He threw for 226 yards and a TD while rushing for 88 yards and a TD. He was the QB8 that week.
Marcus Mariota is not someone I’m targeting in a 1QB format. But he’s a much better option than his Sleeper ADP of QB31 would suggest. Mariota surely has less job security than the likes of Jared Goff, Mac Jones, and Matt Ryan. But he also has a higher weekly ceiling, which is all you should care about. When the acquisition cost of a player is zero, the floor should not be a concern. Just take the guy with upside.
Thanks for reading this article! You can find me on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you have any more best ball questions or just want to share your favorite tournament teams!
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